Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
COVID-19 Is even more infectious than the flu, by several fold, and due to the long potential incubation period before symptoms (up to ~two weeks versus just a few days for flu), it's relatively easy for people to think they aren't sick when they are infectious and spreading it. Studies show a lot of the current spread is in bars/restaurants/small group gatherings where people are not masking/ distancing appropriately.

Flu prevalence is way down due to masks and distancing, and Covid prevalence is way down from what it would have been without masking/distancing. But we haven't done enough, and many states including my own had a push for normalcy in the run up to the election, which resulted in lots of transmission that is now building into a huge caseload and eventually deaths will follow.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Another problem that I see with that kind of thinking(?) is that some percentage of people who test positive are asymptomatic which further skews the data in the wrong direction. Like a said, a greased political football that cannot be trusted as anything close to accurate.
Asymptomatic folks are a very small percentage of overall tests (last I heard under 5%, captured during routine screens). Many of these are actually presymptomatic (meaning they develop symptoms later). But most people getting tested do so because they feel sick. Specific exceptions for those in school/work that requires routine testing; theses folks when positive make up that several percent of asymptomatic/presymptomatic infections... But those folks if positive can still spread.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

bigredfish

Known around here
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
17,009
Reaction score
47,454
Location
Floriduh
Its aerosolized. The droplets you talk about arent the big problem, The shit floats for hours in a confined space.

As far as tests, we've been through that already too. The PCR tests being done are largely finding dead nucleic acid and do not indicate a true infection.

What Happened to Dr. Fauci's Earlier Concerns About COVID Test Sensitivity?
One of the most frustrating aspects of COVID-19 coverage has been the emphasis on “cases,” reinforced by Dr. Anthony Fauci. In fact, he was wringing his hands about rising “case” numbers on CNN in early October. These numbers are actually positive tests. The New York Times and several experts admitted in late August that up to 90% of positive PCR tests were not indicative of the active illness that could be transmitted to others.

Joining the hosts of This Week in Virology in July, Fauci directly responded to a question about COVID-19 testing, specifically how patients with positive tests might determine whether or not they are actually infectious and need to quarantine.
“What is now sort of evolving into a bit of a standard,” Fauci said, is that “if you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more … the chances of it being replication-[competent] are minuscule.”
“It’s very frustrating for the patients as well as for the physicians,” he continued, when “somebody comes in, and they repeat their PCR, and it’s like [a] 37 cycle threshold, but you almost never can culture virus from a 37 threshold cycle.”
So, I think if somebody does come in with 37, 38, even 36, you got to say, you know, it’s just dead nucleotides, period.”
Why COVID-19 Testing Is A Tragic Waste
 

tigerwillow1

Known around here
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
3,815
Reaction score
8,424
Location
USA, Oregon
I have some thoughts about the frankenscript vs. everybody else back-and-forth that's been going on. It's a long rant and I'm not offended by anybody who doesn't want to read it. Franken, you're presenting yourself as an expert, or at least highly informed about covid-19 and related subjects. I don't challenge that because I don't know enough about the technical aspects to make any judgement. I've had a similar experience viewed from your end of things with an RV forum. There are a few specific electrical issues that periodically pop up, and when they do, there are multiple authoritative sounding incorrect responses from people who don't have a clue. I thoroughly understand these few specific issues and post correct information. I'm usually far outnumbered by the incorrect posts, some of them linking to authoritative looking web pages that possibly originated the incorrect information. I used to spend a lot of time fighting the misinformation with explanations, instrument readings, and statements from standards documents. Year after year, the same issues come up, and I got weary. Now, I either just sit back and watch the debate, or make a single post which people are free to believe or not believe. A small group has gotten to know me and trusts what I say. But how are the others to know which of the many conflicting answers is correct?

The big difference between what I described and covid-19 is that the electrical debates don't have any political motivation. The liberal side of the political spectrum has politicized covid-19. I know there are exceptions, but as a generalization, the conservative attitude is "leave me alone to do what I want, and I'll leave you alone", while the liberal attitude is "conform to what we want or we'll make it miserable for you". Just look at who's rioting and burning things down and comitting violence. Conservatives gravitate toward following the rules and proper process, while liberals believe the end justifies the means. As an example, the conservatives were mostly quiet during the 8 years of Obama's misdeeds, while the liberals have spent Trump's entire time in office trying to undermine and preferably remove him from office with a constant stream of false and dishonest schemes.

The liberals' highest priority for the past few years has been to undermine and destroy Trump. Everything, including covid-19 response, revolves around that. It's just one of many issues that's been weaponized by the libs to contribute to the high purpose of destroying Trump. Never let a good crisis go to waste. I believe that the liberals are eager to sacrifice lives if it will hurt Trump, and over the months some of the loud-mouthed liberal celebrities and politicians have stated as such (no, I don't have any links for this). The end justifies the means. With covid-19, frankenscript says one thing, and other forum members say the opposite. How can somebody like me who knows nothing about the science of this decide who's right? I can't based on the science, so I have to look at circumstantial things like history, motivation, reputation, logical deduction, believably, etc. Franken, you've let on that you lean to the left politically and are a Trump hater. You're identifying with a group that is seen by conservatives as willing to shamelessly lie and manipulate anything and everything to achieve a purpose. No specific accusation from me. You might be an exception and it could be everything you're posting is correct. I have little to no qualification to discern this. You've got an uphill battle to convince anybody that leans conservative that you're not basing what you say more on the liberal prime directive, and less on real facts or science. The conservatives have finally learned that if they don't push back on the liberal disinformation, they will be crushed under it. For myself, I believe almost nothing I hear about covid-19 from the liberal press, liberal scientists, or liberal-leaning government agencies.
 

David L

IPCT Contributor
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
7,932
Reaction score
20,757
Location
USA
Asymptomatic folks are a very small percentage of overall tests (last I heard under 5%, captured during routine screens). Many of these are actually presymptomatic (meaning they develop symptoms later). But most people getting tested do so because they feel sick. Specific exceptions for those in school/work that requires routine testing; theses folks when positive make up that several percent of asymptomatic/presymptomatic infections... But those folks if positive can still spread.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
This is interesting, guess the Japanese ship was a good way to test, looks like it is hard to pin down a "percentage fits all", I know I heard 40% once of those tested were asymptomatic, not sure if that was a local news statement or something nationally, can't find it on CDC's site:

COVID-19: What proportion are asymptomatic? - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Here they state 25% according to CDC, but I can't find/confirm this...WHO says 80%

 

David L

IPCT Contributor
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
7,932
Reaction score
20,757
Location
USA
“There are 3 Types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics” - Mark Twain

This how I feel about Covid-19.
He forgot "White Lies" which had a different meaning with the American Indians and now seems to be having a similar meaning today. :( Apparently White ain't "Good and Pure" anymore...:)
 

David L

IPCT Contributor
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
7,932
Reaction score
20,757
Location
USA
I have some thoughts about the frankenscript vs. everybody else back-and-forth that's been going on. It's a long rant and I'm not offended by anybody who doesn't want to read it. Franken, you're presenting yourself as an expert, or at least highly informed about covid-19 and related subjects. I don't challenge that because I don't know enough about the technical aspects to make any judgement. I've had a similar experience viewed from your end of things with an RV forum. There are a few specific electrical issues that periodically pop up, and when they do, there are multiple authoritative sounding incorrect responses from people who don't have a clue. I thoroughly understand these few specific issues and post correct information. I'm usually far outnumbered by the incorrect posts, some of them linking to authoritative looking web pages that possibly originated the incorrect information. I used to spend a lot of time fighting the misinformation with explanations, instrument readings, and statements from standards documents. Year after year, the same issues come up, and I got weary. Now, I either just sit back and watch the debate, or make a single post which people are free to believe or not believe. A small group has gotten to know me and trusts what I say. But how are the others to know which of the many conflicting answers is correct?

The big difference between what I described and covid-19 is that the electrical debates don't have any political motivation. The liberal side of the political spectrum has politicized covid-19. I know there are exceptions, but as a generalization, the conservative attitude is "leave me alone to do what I want, and I'll leave you alone", while the liberal attitude is "conform to what we want or we'll make it miserable for you". Just look at who's rioting and burning things down and comitting violence. Conservatives gravitate toward following the rules and proper process, while liberals believe the end justifies the means. As an example, the conservatives were mostly quiet during the 8 years of Obama's misdeeds, while the liberals have spent Trump's entire time in office trying to undermine and preferably remove him from office with a constant stream of false and dishonest schemes.

The liberals' highest priority for the past few years has been to undermine and destroy Trump. Everything, including covid-19 response, revolves around that. It's just one of many issues that's been weaponized by the libs to contribute to the high purpose of destroying Trump. Never let a good crisis go to waste. I believe that the liberals are eager to sacrifice lives if it will hurt Trump, and over the months some of the loud-mouthed liberal celebrities and politicians have stated as such (no, I don't have any links for this). The end justifies the means. With covid-19, frankenscript says one thing, and other forum members say the opposite. How can somebody like me who knows nothing about the science of this decide who's right? I can't based on the science, so I have to look at circumstantial things like history, motivation, reputation, logical deduction, believably, etc. Franken, you've let on that you lean to the left politically and are a Trump hater. You're identifying with a group that is seen by conservatives as willing to shamelessly lie and manipulate anything and everything to achieve a purpose. No specific accusation from me. You might be an exception and it could be everything you're posting is correct. I have little to no qualification to discern this. You've got an uphill battle to convince anybody that leans conservative that you're not basing what you say more on the liberal prime directive, and less on real facts or science. The conservatives have finally learned that if they don't push back on the liberal disinformation, they will be crushed under it. For myself, I believe almost nothing I hear about covid-19 from the liberal press, liberal scientists, or liberal-leaning government agencies.
I like your post, it was a good read. Think about it, where are we all getting our information from? We are just repeating what we have found/heard/read and adding our thoughts/opinions/experiences, nothing new right? Well thanks to today's Media and their agendas, no longer hidden, this has all changed. They use to be a source that most of us trusted but now over half of our nation no longer trust them, also add Social Media sites which have turned into News sources. Sure there were times that we all got misinformation from the News, but they would recant their stories/articles when proven wrong/incorrect, this is not happening today. If the News or Social Media post does not lineup with their agenda it is quickly suppressed and/or removed. Personally I blame Social Media sites for most of our division, way too many unverified sources there, yet our youth live on these sites. Remember the days when we only had 3 TV channels and got paper news?

Today's News (Social Media) is like the Weather, flip the channel and one says 30% chance of rain, another channel says 80% :)

Funny but I live down South, no that is not funny :), and when a Tropical Storm/Hurricane enters the Gulf, we get predictions, there are usually 20 or more lines drawn from different sources on the map of where it may make land fall, only one is right or sometimes none are right.
"Today's News" :)
 
Last edited:

bigredfish

Known around here
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
17,009
Reaction score
47,454
Location
Floriduh
Ya gotta smile at this



I ride our token liberal @Frankenscript too hard sometimes, but thats because Ive seen the daily hypocrisy of his team for 4 years as well as the poor way the international medical community has handled the Wuflu mess. Double whammy.

Fauci, WHO, CDC and those “higher learning” institutions such as JHU and the Ivy League schools have changed their tune to fit agendas and routinely offer up conflicting advice, leaving the average Joe, who’s not quite as dumb as they think, to decide for himself.

Unfortunately the loss of trust in institutions who we have relied on for years will take a long time to recover.
 

bigredfish

Known around here
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
17,009
Reaction score
47,454
Location
Floriduh

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Its aerosolized. The droplets you talk about arent the big problem, The shit floats for hours in a confined space.

As far as tests, we've been through that already too. The PCR tests being done are largely finding dead nucleic acid and do not indicate a true infection.

What Happened to Dr. Fauci's Earlier Concerns About COVID Test Sensitivity?
One of the most frustrating aspects of COVID-19 coverage has been the emphasis on “cases,” reinforced by Dr. Anthony Fauci. In fact, he was wringing his hands about rising “case” numbers on CNN in early October. These numbers are actually positive tests. The New York Times and several experts admitted in late August that up to 90% of positive PCR tests were not indicative of the active illness that could be transmitted to others.



Why COVID-19 Testing Is A Tragic Waste
Once again, most of the virus that is expelled through mouth and nose is attached to water droplets and much of that is caught by simple cloth masks which reduce the spread of the virus. They aren't perfect but they work surprisingly well. See verifiable data in sources of the CDC article I posted. What gets past the masks does indeed linger for a long time, which reinforces the need to catch most of it in masks worn by everybody.

The PCR tests do report positive in some --many, actually-- cases where the person has already recovered but your statement that they "are largely finding dead nucleic acid and do not indicate a true infection" is an inappropriate extrapolation of the results in the NY Times article. Most people being tested are doing so because they feel sick... and their positive tests indicate an ongoing infection. It's true that the NY Times reported on the deficiencies of using 40 cycles, and one lab reported close to 90% would have been negative if the threshold was 30:

"Officials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, have access to C.T. values from tests they have processed, and analyzed their numbers at The Times’s request. In July, the lab identified 872 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles.
With a cutoff of 35, about 43 percent of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 63 percent would no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30.
In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said."

However, a threshold of 30 will miss a LOT of actual positives. So, a broad statement that 90% of PCR tests were not indicative of the actual transmissible illness is incorrect.

A positive test, even one at 40 cycles, is still useful beyond quarantining the individual. It should set off contact tracing to figure out who they were in contact with in the past (as in, while they were still infectious) to reduce the spread. Many doctors strongly disagreed with Dr. Mina's statement in that article. I've talked to doctors and they all tell me 40 cycles is the worldwide standard for just this reason. These are not false positives, even if they no longer indicate active infection. Keep in mind the difference between a "good swab" and a "bad swab" is easily 3 Ct counts... a lot of the testing has done by people swabbing themselves in drive through settings, and they don't generally ram that swab back far enough. My wife did a self swab in a drive through once, and later was tested in a facility, and she described a big difference between her swabbing herself and the testing person doing it.

It would be good if Ct scores were routinely released to doctors to guide their patients' follow up, as one in the low 30s would indicate somebody definitely actively infectious and one closer to 40 would indicate someone who probably should be retested to confirm not likely infectious and tracing done for the past two weeks with testing of contacts.


As to:
Oceanslider said:

Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as 'COVID-19' deaths, regardless of cause | Fox News

You do realize that was published on APRIL 07? Holy out of date data, Batman! A lot has changed since then in our understanding of the virus, the pandemic overall, and reporting standards. Most states now, and for many months, report "probable" COVID-19 deaths separately from confirmed ones. For example here in Indiana, we've had 5418 total COVID-19 deaths (confirmed only), plus 267 probable deaths that mostly stem from before testing was sufficiently available, but still ever week there are a couple added due to uncertainties in the diagnosis or situation for one reason or another. The 5418 number is very solid, to the extent that you guys can trust an organization run by Republicans up and down the line :cool: There used to be a figure for nursing home deaths but it doesn't seem to appear on the dashboard anymore. In an article about a month and half ago, the number had topped 2000 deaths so represents upwards of 50% of the Indiana deaths.

This just in: Here's our friend Oceanslider breaking quarantine to catch some waves:

1606671238303.png

Damn, the animation didn't work. Here's the original link:
 

sebastiantombs

Known around here
Joined
Dec 28, 2019
Messages
11,511
Reaction score
27,690
Location
New Jersey
Many people are being test because it is required of them. Example, college students that want to visit for the Holidays, employees of many companies are required to get tested. It is certainly not just "people who feel sick".
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
I have some thoughts about the frankenscript vs. everybody else back-and-forth that's been going on. It's a long rant and I'm not offended by anybody who doesn't want to read it. Franken, you're presenting yourself as an expert, or at least highly informed about covid-19 and related subjects. I don't challenge that because I don't know enough about the technical aspects to make any judgement. I've had a similar experience viewed from your end of things with an RV forum. There are a few specific electrical issues that periodically pop up, and when they do, there are multiple authoritative sounding incorrect responses from people who don't have a clue. I thoroughly understand these few specific issues and post correct information. I'm usually far outnumbered by the incorrect posts, some of them linking to authoritative looking web pages that possibly originated the incorrect information. I used to spend a lot of time fighting the misinformation with explanations, instrument readings, and statements from standards documents. Year after year, the same issues come up, and I got weary. Now, I either just sit back and watch the debate, or make a single post which people are free to believe or not believe. A small group has gotten to know me and trusts what I say. But how are the others to know which of the many conflicting answers is correct?

The big difference between what I described and covid-19 is that the electrical debates don't have any political motivation. The liberal side of the political spectrum has politicized covid-19. I know there are exceptions, but as a generalization, the conservative attitude is "leave me alone to do what I want, and I'll leave you alone", while the liberal attitude is "conform to what we want or we'll make it miserable for you". Just look at who's rioting and burning things down and comitting violence. Conservatives gravitate toward following the rules and proper process, while liberals believe the end justifies the means. As an example, the conservatives were mostly quiet during the 8 years of Obama's misdeeds, while the liberals have spent Trump's entire time in office trying to undermine and preferably remove him from office with a constant stream of false and dishonest schemes.

The liberals' highest priority for the past few years has been to undermine and destroy Trump. Everything, including covid-19 response, revolves around that. It's just one of many issues that's been weaponized by the libs to contribute to the high purpose of destroying Trump. Never let a good crisis go to waste. I believe that the liberals are eager to sacrifice lives if it will hurt Trump, and over the months some of the loud-mouthed liberal celebrities and politicians have stated as such (no, I don't have any links for this). The end justifies the means. With covid-19, frankenscript says one thing, and other forum members say the opposite. How can somebody like me who knows nothing about the science of this decide who's right? I can't based on the science, so I have to look at circumstantial things like history, motivation, reputation, logical deduction, believably, etc. Franken, you've let on that you lean to the left politically and are a Trump hater. You're identifying with a group that is seen by conservatives as willing to shamelessly lie and manipulate anything and everything to achieve a purpose. No specific accusation from me. You might be an exception and it could be everything you're posting is correct. I have little to no qualification to discern this. You've got an uphill battle to convince anybody that leans conservative that you're not basing what you say more on the liberal prime directive, and less on real facts or science. The conservatives have finally learned that if they don't push back on the liberal disinformation, they will be crushed under it. For myself, I believe almost nothing I hear about covid-19 from the liberal press, liberal scientists, or liberal-leaning government agencies.
Hi Tigerwillow1, believe it or not I agree with a lot of this.

For sure the crisis has been politicized... when has a crisis in this country not been? I remember congress on the steps on 9/11/2001 standing together... that lasted less than a week. I'll spare you my "TDS rant" as I've done that rant here enough times, but our response as a nation to this crisis has been pathetic, at many levels both governmental and personal. I've already seen here plenty of "ODS rants" and the beginnings of "BDS rants" so it's fair to say that none of us are objective. But the agencies like CDC are just trying to report the best data. They aren't some political "deep state" faction trying to oust the president.

I consider myself a centrist; in today's society this makes me a liberal. I'm not a progressive by any means though. You would be surprised at my views on guns and immigration issues --just to name a few-- if we ever got into a discussion on it, but that's for another thread, that I probably won't participate in. I'll say I don't support rioting, but I do support most of the protests that have gone on peacefully and with masks this year. But it doesn't require politicization to look at the disaster this pandemic has become here in the US. In terms of deaths per million (USA: 821 as of today per worldometers), it's a disgrace that we are 9th overall and number one in deaths among large countries (>100M people). We had the resources and know-how to do so much better. It's debatable whether if dems in power would have done a better job, but they weren't in power so we will never know for sure. We didn't implement a national testing program, we didn't implement a national mask distribution program, we didn't implement a national crisis supply management program.... all of these would have saved lives, and there were plans drawn up by the Trump administration for all of these. Meanwhile the fact that Americans argue among themselves about mask wearing THIS FAR INTO THE PANDEMIC when there is a huge amount of evidence to show it helps (again, see the CDC link I posted yesterday) makes me want to just hang it all up and retreat to my liberal bubble. But that's not my way, even now. I've unsubscribed from this thread several times... for some reason I come back.

And I'll say @sebastiantombs has a good point about around Thanksgiving a lot of people did screening testing prior to travel, so for a two week period we definitely have a "bump" of testing by non-sick folks. Overall though, through the pandemic the routine screening tests are a small percentage of the overall testing done, though. And a lot of the universities doing testing don't report in to the big databases so that stuff isn't captured; often these tests are done with proprietary tests developed at the universities and the data isn't necessarily captured at the state level that gets reported up... mileage will vary place to place.
 
Top