Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Frankenscript

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Sorry guys, no time to play today. Back to work now and super busy. Took a quick look at the zerohedge article; like most from that site it salts some facts in among the misleading BS. Will try to get time to pull it apart in the next day or two.

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bigredfish

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Its not a ZeroHedge article.....

The source material is all documented.

Its mostly common sense, I know thats not your favorite subject

Whats misleading BS is the constant flip flopping of "The Science" which has been and continues to be all over the place and contradictory,.
THAT's what the article is about.
 

Frankenscript

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Looks like a zerohedge article to me

Screenshot_20201130-183357.jpg

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bigredfish

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Liberals dont understand aggregator sites and have low reading comprehension skills.. ZH produces very little of the content you see on that site. They aggregate content from a wide variety of sources. This one is an opinion piece from a blog.

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth

Bottom line is the article deals with common sense, using some of the "science" facts, and draws some opinions. Its not a thesis on the microbiology or chemistry of the virus.
 

David L

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Imagine the detrimental effect of keeping them locked in the basement for a year with a mask on, sprayed down with disinfectant, all while not being allowed to socialize with friends and get sick like a developing immune system needs.

It will be interesting to see those long lasting effects.
They may end up like Powder :) Remember this movie?



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Ssayer

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What CV19 represents to me in a nutshell (this is from ZH)...

“Well certainly there are those who are more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable. But again, truth be told…if you’re looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror.
I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn’t be? War. Terror. Disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you and in your panic, you turned to the now High Chancellor Adam Sutler. He promised you order. He promised you peace. And all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent.”
– V speech to London, V for Vendetta
 

Kn10

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Imagine the detrimental effect of keeping them locked in the basement for a year with a mask on, sprayed down with disinfectant, all while not being allowed to socialize with friends and get sick like a developing immune system needs.

It will be interesting to see those long lasting effects.
This is pretty much what happened to my state in Australia (the "locked in a basement" and "not being able to socialize" part). We had one of the harshest lockdowns in the world. First one was 50-ish days, the second was 111 days.
  • Could only go to work if you were an essential worker, otherwise, you'll get paid $1500-ish USD per fortnight to stay home.
  • Could only go out for groceries, medical or 1-hour exercise
  • Couldn't go more than 5km from your house (and state borders locked down obviously)
  • Had to wear a mask if you were outside
  • Couldn't see friends or family
  • No school for kids
It was hard. I did well because I was well situated with business, family, age of kids not being too disrupted etc.. but a lot of people weren't.

A lot of people weren't travelling too well mental-health wise even before the lockdowns, so didn't do well in it.

There were edge cases, people posting conspiracy theories, small protests but overall people did the right thing.

We have had ZERO cases of Coronavirus in my state for the last 34 days, 28 days is considered "elimination".
Australia as a whole has bursts of days with zero cases country wide.

It sucked, but it worked.
 

dgwasw

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We have had ZERO cases of Coronavirus in my state for the last 34 days, 28 days is considered "elimination".
Australia as a whole has bursts of days with zero cases country wide.
On the other side of Australia we just closed our land and sea borders.
Had no full lock down.
Or community transmission since 11 April.

11 March World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 a pandemic.
16 March Gatherings of more than 500 banned. National Cabinet
16 March Overseas travellers ordered to self-isolate for 14 days.
18 March Indoor gatherings of more than 100 banned. National Cabinet
20 March Australian international border closed to all non-residents.
23 March Non-essential activities and venues where people gather banned.
24 March Interstate travellers ordered to self-isolate for 14 days.
29 March Mandatory hotel quarantine for overseas travellers introduced.

INTRODUCTION OF TOUGHEST RESTRICTIONS
31 March Gatherings of more than two people banned. People encouraged to stay home.
31 March Regional travel banned.
6 April WA border closed.
6 April WA schools closed one week early for school holidays.
11 April WA recorded last case of unknown community transmission.

EASING OF RESTRICTIONS
27 April Gatherings eased to a maximum of 10 people.
28 April WA schools resumed Term 2 as normal.
18 May Gatherings eased to a maximum of 20 people.
6 June Gatherings eased to a 300 outdoor / 100 indoor limit. Regional travel ban lifted.
26 June Gatherings eased to two-square-metre rule.
10 July WA tightened border with Victoria to essential travel only in light of second wave.
16 July Returned traveller from Victoria tests positive.
17 July Mandatory hotel quarantine announced for Victorians entering
20 July WA tightened border with NSW to essential travel only.
4 August Defence force deployed to assist with hotel quarantine.
14 August New mandatory testing measures introduced for truck drivers entering .
20 August State government announced GPS tracking bracelets and increased surveillance for high risk hotel quarantiners following a handful of escapes.
 

Jessie.slimer

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“Can we see your papers? Your Papers please”

Today's sheeple don't care. Look how many waive all their privacy rights already with social media, apps, putting their images all over the internet, etc. I suspect this won't concern most of them. It's sad.
 

Frankenscript

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Guys, a couple things:

1. I started reviewing that "zerohedge-hosted" article "Groundhog Day - COVID & The Science"... I've actually printed it out and have some notes... it's riddled with poor comparisons and other fallacies but the main thing that pisses me off about it is that it keeps referring to PCR tests for COVID-19 as "97% unreliable." This is a gross mischaracterization and I wanted to track down the original reference. Neither zerohedge nor the original site (here) actually cites the reference. It is referred to in the article text:

The Portuguese judges cited a study conducted by “some of the leading European and world specialists,” which was published by Oxford Academic at the end of September. It showed that if someone tested positive for Covid at a cycle threshold of 35 or higher, the chances of that person actually being infected is less than three percent, and that “the probability of… receiving a false positive is 97% or higher.”

Now, Oxford Academic is a journal aggregator site, much like Zerohedge is an aggregator for wingnut conspiracy articles. Nonetheless I patiently entered in search terms and reviewed the listings it gave for articles posted in the second half of the September, without finding any article that actually talked about 97% false positives. I'm guessing it was one of many papers "published" without peer review then retracted when it was found to contain faulty analysis or outright poor data. If somebody has a link to the article, please send it my way but after 15 minutes of looking around without finding it last night, I'm not going to waste my time any further.

The reality is that 40 cycles is known to be a bit much if you are looking for active (transmissible) infections, but was adopted early on in the pandemic because they didn't know back then just how sensitive a test they needed. Since then, most doctors have asked for the cycle used NOT to be reduced, because the more you reduce the number of cycles, the greater the chance of false negatives. False positives aren't a dangerous problem, false negatives are. "False positives" are not really false: these people have, had, or are developing the disease. False negatives really are false and lead to an infected person spreading the virus around causing sickness and death; false positives lead to inconvenience and potentially financial hardship. Preventing deaths is what doctors are supposed to do, and cautious approaches win out. Most people getting tested are doing so because they feel sick with respiratory virus symptoms; a positive COVID-19 test in these cases means nearly certainly they are sick from COVID-19. The percentage of tests done routinely (screening of apparently healthy people) is in the single digit percentages, last time I saw data on it. Sure, positives in this cohort have a significant chance of picking up non-infectious virus remnants. If you are interested to know who is infectious and who isn't, a rapid antibody test is now preferable and lots of universities are using them with great success among their populations.

The article also goes on about case definitions; in the US tests are typically done either with a doctor's order or the tests are reviewed by a doctor. If you drive through CVS to get the test, there's a doctor overseeing the process at some point. The positives are legally valid cases, in the US at least.

It also states that only 172 out of over 10k deaths due to COVID-19 in Canada were outside of long term care facilities then tries to generalize that to other countries like the US. Even if it's true in Canada (I didn't check), in the US it seems to be between 50-60% of deaths here are in LTCs. That's a lot of deaths outside of LTCs, and suggesting society should somehow value folks in an LTC less than someone who is out and about, is patently offensive.

The article is COVID-19-denier garbage. I'm done with it. Just look at COVID-19 hospital usage/ICU space if you have any doubts.

2. Oh, and to the point a few posts back about scientists not yet knowing if vaccinated people can still transmit the virus, how about backing off a bit? It takes studies to determine this. The studies require a significant cohort of vaccinated people who have gotten the disease to be studied. Right now there are only a small handful of vaccinated people who actually have tested positive for the virus. We need maybe 100x as many people who are vaccinated-yet-covid-positive, studied for viral load, before a decent answer can be determined. Science takes time. Scientists are giving us the vaccine in about a quarter of the normal development time, thanks to a hell of a lot of hard work and long nights, so how about backing off, not deriding them for not having answers before it is physically possible to get them, and let them do their work.
 

Jessie.slimer

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Scientists are giving us the vaccine in about a quarter of the normal development time, thanks to a hell of a lot of hard work and long nights, so how about backing off, not deriding them for not having answers before it is physically possible to get them, and let them do their work.
I agree 100%

Its the reason that I will not be taking a vaccine that the experts don't know enough about. Covid is and always has been a guessing game.
 
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