US Presidential Election 2020 (& Politics) :)

sdkid

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LOTS of posts all over the map regarding politics have taken over the COVID thread. Pretty much derailed that thread as a COVID-only discussion. I understand the political nature of various COVID response strategies in various states, and that off-shoot of the pandemic discussion resulted in Many other points of political ideology being brought up. Each day though, there are other scientific and medical discoveries and updates related to the pandemic-- a good discussion all on its own.

BUT--- I do love CIVIL political discussions and have enjoyed the back & forth over there. Perhaps we can keep more of the election and politics posts here? I would enjoy continuing political topics over here and leaving the Pandemic post to a more pure discussion of COVID-19.


Consider this an Open Invite to anyone of any political persuasion to post here in Civil Discussion. :cool:

So to START.....
I like RealClearPolitics.com as a source of political news. They essentially aggregate links to political news from all sides and sources, as well as provide opinion pieces from all sides. Besides that, they keep a running average of all national polling going on as we edge closer to November. In 2016, that polling told me I should just prepare myself for a Hillary Clinton Presidency...LOL. Here is the polling average as it sits today, and it reminds me of the HRC polling 4 years ago.


1591595648440.png

There ARE Senate hearings taking place that may have some deep ramifications for Joe Biden. Just like 4 years ago, the coming months will be an interesting ride.

 
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mat200

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I prefer to following the money.. in this case, looking at the odds on wagering who will win.

If you look at those, Trump was ahead until just recently.

1591596747051.png

In short, the plus (+) symbol means that specific bet/option is considered an underdog, while the minus (-) symbol before a number indicates that option is a favorite to win the bet.

What Do the Numbers Mean?
For those new to 2020 election odds, the numbers can be a little confusing. Odds Shark’s odds calculator is a great tool to help translate who will win the 2020 election into implied probabilities. For example, at -110, Joe Biden’s implied probability to win the 2020 election is 52.38 percent and President Trump’s at EVEN odds is 50 percent. Trump had -180 odds, or 64.29 percent implied probability, to win the election during the last week of February.

These fluctuating market prices are set by both online oddsmakers like Bovada and BetOnline and the betting public. It’s obvious that Trump’s early dismissive public comments about coronavirus caused bettors to start wagering on Biden. With money coming in on the former vice-president, political betting sites adjusted Trump’s odds. Cause and effect.

ref:
 

sdkid

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I prefer to following the money.. in this case, looking at the odds on wagering who will win.
...

Interesting-- and probably more accurate.

But even those odds were wrong in 2016--- even right up to within a few days of the election....



Odds On Next President Of The United States
CanadiateAug 5Oct 30Feb 1Mar 4May 9June 22Aug 18Sept 26Oct 25Nov 1
Clinton-110-110EVEN-200-275-320-450-215-550-275
Trump+2500+500+190+200+225+260+325+175+350+190
Other +2500 +3300+5000
 

Parley

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LOTS of posts all over the map regarding politics have taken over the COVID thread. Pretty much derailed that thread as a COVID-only discussion. I understand the political nature of various COVID response strategies in various states, and that off-shoot of the pandemic discussion resulted in Many other points of political ideology being brought up. Each day though, there are other scientific and medical discoveries and updates related to the pandemic-- a good discussion all on its own.

BUT--- I do love CIVIL political discussions and have enjoyed the back & forth over there. Perhaps we can keep more of the election and politics posts here? I would enjoy continuing political topics over here and leaving the Pandemic post to a more pure discussion of COVID-19.


Consider this an Open Invite to anyone of any political persuasion to post here in Civil Discussion. :cool:

So to START.....
I like RealClearPolitics.com as a source of political news. They essentially aggregate links to political news from all sides and sources, as well as provide opinion pieces from all sides. Besides that, they keep a running average of all national polling going on as we edge closer to November. In 2016, that polling told me I should just prepare myself for a Hillary Clinton Presidency...LOL. Here is the polling average as it sits today, and it reminds me of the HRC polling 4 years ago.


View attachment 63356

There ARE Senate hearings taking place that may have some deep ramifications for Joe Biden. Just like 4 years ago, the coming months will be an interesting ride.

The problem with the Real Clear Politics averages is that it mostly has push-pull polls in it conducted by the media. So, IMHO it is skewed.
 

sdkid

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The problem with the Real Clear Politics averages is that it mostly has push-pull polls in it conducted by the media. So, IMHO it is skewed.
the media polls are usually conducted BY or in conjunction with a research or polling firm that knows what it's doing. BUT-- I think any of those could construct a poll (or a sample) to give them what the media wants to report. The massive ERROR in 2016 polls was truly Epic--- so now this year I don't know what to think or believe when looking at current polls.

I do think it would be foolish for any Trump supporter to think this election is a done deal--- just as it is foolish for Biden supporters to think the liberal slant of protests guarantee a Biden win.
 

sdkid

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ELECTION YEAR PANDERING...
(Never waste a good opportunity to give fake support to POC)

Blatant disgusting opportunism. My one question is this-- is the African tribal scarf from the culture of Africans who were enslaved, or is it from the culture of African people who did the kidnapping, human trafficking, and enslavement? :rolleyes:

1591710038458.png
 

Parley

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ELECTION YEAR PANDERING...
(Never waste a good opportunity to give fake support to POC)

Blatant disgusting opportunism. My one question is this-- is the African tribal scarf from the culture of Africans who were enslaved, or is it from the culture of African people who did the kidnapping, human trafficking, and enslavement? :rolleyes:

View attachment 63485
And she required assistance to get back up. :) I notice that Nadler who is just to the right and out of the picture had to remain standing.
 
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Pandering is an understatement. They all need a trip to the woodshed. It does demonstrate, undeniably, that politicians have no shame. Pelosi was busy with her cell phone, too. No old lady excuse for that, that's just plain disrespect of what was supposed to be a solemn and respectful act while in full clown costume.
 
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sdkid

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One thing I learned is that polls on Trump are not accurate. Most people are scared to admit they are voting for him, even in the polls.
Absolutely--- and that is especially true right now with the relentless assault from the protesters and complicit media, as well as the fake news about "Trump mishandling COVID"-- all the leftists are in a crazed irrational frenzy right now. I can't even SAY what I really think on Facebook.... who the hell would want to face irrational crap when you want to just point out facts and reality?

Quiet, tolerant, silent Trump voters are sitting out there and telling pollsters what the liberal media wants to hear... LOL
 

Jessie.slimer

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Absolutely--- and that is especially true right now with the relentless assault from the protesters and complicit media, as well as the fake news about "Trump mishandling COVID"-- all the leftists are in a crazed irrational frenzy right now. I can't even SAY what I really think on Facebook.... who the hell would want to face irrational crap when you want to just point out facts and reality?

Quiet, tolerant, silent Trump voters are sitting out there and telling pollsters what the liberal media wants to hear... LOL
2016, rinse, repeat. :D
 

c hris527

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LOTS of posts all over the map regarding politics have taken over the COVID thread. Pretty much derailed that thread as a COVID-only discussion. I understand the political nature of various COVID response strategies in various states, and that off-shoot of the pandemic discussion resulted in Many other points of political ideology being brought up. Each day though, there are other scientific and medical discoveries and updates related to the pandemic-- a good discussion all on its own.

BUT--- I do love CIVIL political discussions and have enjoyed the back & forth over there. Perhaps we can keep more of the election and politics posts here? I would enjoy continuing political topics over here and leaving the Pandemic post to a more pure discussion of COVID-19.


Consider this an Open Invite to anyone of any political persuasion to post here in Civil Discussion. :cool:

So to START.....
I like RealClearPolitics.com as a source of political news. They essentially aggregate links to political news from all sides and sources, as well as provide opinion pieces from all sides. Besides that, they keep a running average of all national polling going on as we edge closer to November. In 2016, that polling told me I should just prepare myself for a Hillary Clinton Presidency...LOL. Here is the polling average as it sits today, and it reminds me of the HRC polling 4 years ago.


View attachment 63356

There ARE Senate hearings taking place that may have some deep ramifications for Joe Biden. Just like 4 years ago, the coming months will be an interesting ride.

RealClearPolitics polls were wrong in 2016 just like almost everybody's else's. I would never tell anybody on the phone who I was voting for. There IS a silent (perhaps not so silent now)majority still out there and even more eager to vote. It will be more clear after some live debates. That could all bad for 1 of the candidates. If I had to put $$$ down on this election it would be for a Trump Victory again.
 
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I do have to give Jerry Nadler a little slack for not kneeling. He's got some fairly serious health problems so kneeling for him could prove a little difficult or even dangerous. On the other hand it's more fun to say he's just too darn fat to kneel.
 

mat200

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Interesting-- and probably more accurate.

But even those odds were wrong in 2016--- even right up to within a few days of the election....



Odds On Next President Of The United States
CanadiateAug 5Oct 30Feb 1Mar 4May 9June 22Aug 18Sept 26Oct 25Nov 1
Clinton-110-110EVEN-200-275-320-450-215-550-275
Trump+2500+500+190+200+225+260+325+175+350+190
Other+2500+3300+5000



Wondering if the bookies lost money with those odds they placed....


Each election year I am torn between groups which often want to steal my Constitutional Rights and repress my liberties. So many thieves in the public disservice sector.
 

Parley

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I do have to give Jerry Nadler a little slack for not kneeling. He's got some fairly serious health problems so kneeling for him could prove a little difficult or even dangerous. On the other hand it's more fun to say he's just too darn fat to kneel.
After the lies he told at the impeachment hearing , I am not cutting him any slack. :)
 

sdkid

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Election themes in the wake of BLM protests. One of the running narratives of the DNC that I expect to be pushed heavily this election year is that the GOP is heavily engaged in VOTER SUPPRESSION-- a great talking point that supports their notion that the DNC is looking out for the little guy-- the disenfranchised POC, while the GOP is the "bad guy" who is looking to keep minority voters from participating. BS.

I had to look a little bit to see just exactly WHAT was out there. I found an NPR article from 2 years ago. Well-- sort of. LOL-- The "article" was nothing but a re-hash of a PURELY liberal perspective of the topic from a Mother Jones article and liberal author. The NPR article treats the OPINIONS and INTERPRETATIONS of that Mother Jones article as undisputed FACT. Classic NPR BS. You can see that article here:

Another article present the alternative point of view, albeit with some of its own bias. The difference is a wealth of studies and facts.

"...Among a variety of minority groups and political affiliations, no significant change in turnout occurred after voter ID laws went into effect. It should be noted, though, that Hispanic voter turnout actually increased in states with ID requirements, when compared to states without them. Clearly, the decrease erroneously claimed by critics has not happened..."

Link:
 
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