Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Frankenscript

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There are definite genetic markers in hosts (people) that will correlate with susceptibility. No word on whether these factor with race or not.

Interesting reading:


There was also something that came across my desk the other day, an early look into markers of interest. I will post it if I find it

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erkme73

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Does anyone here PERSONALLY know anyone who was confirmed positive with COVID? That is, with a laboratory test?
 

Sybertiger

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Does anyone here PERSONALLY know anyone who was confirmed positive with COVID? That is, with a laboratory test?
Homeowner in my community was the first one to test positive in my FL county....his wife was the 2nd person in my county. So far 556 confirmed in my county and 12 dead.
 
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erkme73

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Homeowner in my community was the first one to test positive in my FL county....his wife was the 2nd person in my county.
Did they become symptomatic? I have asked everyone I come in contact with in my local 3-county area if anyone knows of someone with it. I've yet to find a single one. I get the occasional "Someone I know of said they knew someone" but nothing first-hand. I ask those around me (retail employees, primarily) and their answers are always complimented with a cynical eye-roll - and comments to the effect they think it isn't real - or is grossly overplayed.

My wife's hospital has treated over 70 patients from a local nursing home in Plant City, FL - some of which were pretty sick. She said she can now look at a patient and pretty much tell they have COVID. I have to walk a very thin line, being careful not to come across as critical. She's quite sensitive to any hint that things aren't deadly serious. She sees questioning the narrative as a personal attack on her integrity.

In any case, I asked her to describe the symptoms of those who are so obviously infected. The list she provided, at least to the untrained laymen, sounded very much like someone with the flu or pneumonia. "Yes, but it's different", she says. That seems quite subjective. Add to that, that any of the lab tests they do in house or send out are simply taken at face value. Positive test results are simply accepted. When a negative comes back, they test again. It just seems to me someone nefarious could bamboozle even the most educated and intelligent HCWs.

Every person involved in the diagnostics and treatment of (rule-out) COVID patients is involved at such a micro level, that they would not be able to detect deception on a larger scale.

I am sure that the virus is real. I'm sure that for certain people it is serious. But I'll be damned if I believe for a moment that it is as dangerous or widespread as the MSM is proclaiming. Too many political ulterior motives at play. Especially when you can see how MSM unanimously vilified lockdown protesters (especially conservatives with firearms), but praise protesters when it suits their political narrative.
 

Sybertiger

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Did they become symptomatic? I have asked everyone I come in contact with in my local 3-county area if anyone knows of someone with it. I've yet to find a single one.
They were a part of the infamous "Nile River Cruise" vacation package. When they got back to the USA they went to a Urgent Care center due to symptoms. They were sent home to quarantine then subsequently verified as having the virus.
 

Frankenscript

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Did they become symptomatic? I have asked everyone I come in contact with in my local 3-county area if anyone knows of someone with it. I've yet to find a single one. I get the occasional "Someone I know of said they knew someone" but nothing first-hand. I ask those around me (retail employees, primarily) and their answers are always complimented with a cynical eye-roll - and comments to the effect they think it isn't real - or is grossly overplayed.

My wife's hospital has treated over 70 patients from a local nursing home in Plant City, FL - some of which were pretty sick. She said she can now look at a patient and pretty much tell they have COVID. I have to walk a very thin line, being careful not to come across as critical. She's quite sensitive to any hint that things aren't deadly serious. She sees questioning the narrative as a personal attack on her integrity.

In any case, I asked her to describe the symptoms of those who are so obviously infected. The list she provided, at least to the untrained laymen, sounded very much like someone with the flu or pneumonia. "Yes, but it's different", she says. That seems quite subjective. Add to that, that any of the lab tests they do in house or send out are simply taken at face value. Positive test results are simply accepted. When a negative comes back, they test again. It just seems to me someone nefarious could bamboozle even the most educated and intelligent HCWs.

Every person involved in the diagnostics and treatment of (rule-out) COVID patients is involved at such a micro level, that they would not be able to detect deception on a larger scale.

I am sure that the virus is real. I'm sure that for certain people it is serious. But I'll be damned if I believe for a moment that it is as dangerous or widespread as the MSM is proclaiming. Too many political ulterior motives at play. Especially when you can see how MSM unanimously vilified lockdown protesters (especially conservatives with firearms), but praise protesters when it suits their political narrative.
I know several first hand cases, fortunately none of them died. Only one hospitalized, relatively briefly. A different one was presumptively diagnosed in mid March (testing not easily accessible for him). Later proved to be antibody-test-POSITIVE. After he started recovering, he described the experience with COVID-19 as follows:

"You know the worst day of flu you've ever had? Well, like that, but with an even worse cough, difficulty breathing, and no smell or taste. Constant headache. And it stayed that way for three weeks before I started to feel even marginally better. All the while seeing people even worse than me on the news dying in the hospital. And wondering if my breathing is going to get worse and I become one of them. Or worse, give it to my wife or two adult kids sheltering at home with me and realizing my business travel may have killed them."

In response to:
" But I'll be damned if I believe for a moment that it is as dangerous or widespread as the MSM is proclaiming."

Well, the MSM is proclaiming that there have been 2 million cases (clinical presentations of symptoms) and as of today about 115,000 deaths in the U.S. These are facts, though both figures are under-counts in a way.

The cases is a pretty solid figure but it's important to realize that infections are believed to be about 10x the cases overall (varying by region), between asymptomatic and "pauci-symptomatic" (I learned a new word last week: relatively mild symptoms and no clinical care sought!) cases where there is no record of the person in the health care system. Lots of states made up their own rules re: reporting the deaths and doctors I know believe we're between 5-10% low on the death count overall, after subtracting out the relatively rare but highly derided cases where someone didn't really die of COVID-19 but had it.

These numbers imply that for every ~150 people you know, there should on average be one clinical case. For every 2700 people you know, one death. Again, if you live in the Northeast, you probably know lots of cases. If you live in Montana, probably none. It's just math.

The MSM is pointing out that ~40+% of deaths have been in senior care facilities; it has been devastating there.

The MSM also points out that in the second half of March it was spreading like wildfire through the US; we didn't have good testing at the time but we've been able to piece it together since; it was doubling every 2-3 days overall (less in rural areas, more in cities). There's no contesting the fact.

This means that if we hadn't locked down and started the distancing protocols, few places in the country would have lasted more than a week, two at the most, before their health care systems collapsed due to the geometric growth. Another week and there would have been 4-8x as many cases, 4-8x as many people trying to get hospitalized, and 4-8x as many deaths. Two more weeks before lockdown? 16-64x as many. Here in Indiana (deep red state) we peaked at about 60% bed utilization, meaning overall we could have sustained less than one more doubling before lockdown before things got nasty and hospitals had to decide whether it was grandma or dad who had to die at home instead of maybe surviving due to hospital care.

The time between infection and hospital-requiring symptoms is the problem: if you don't keep it tightly contained, too many people get infected before you can respond.

I think the MSM is actually downplaying the fact that our healthcare system almost collapsed, in order to prevent a panic.

The MSM is pointing out that right now there are LOTS more infected people walking around out there in the US than there were in mid March. Only distancing protocols and the summer effect is keeping case loads declining, but a bunch of states (19 at last counts) are seeing some increases, but still within their healthcare system ability to handle.

The MSM pointed out (not recently I think) that in March we didn't really understand the math between infections, cases, hospital resources, and deaths. Now we do quite well so we can drive the car using the rear view mirror pretty well, as we better understand how the rearview relates to what's in front.

It's also becoming clear that some people had the disease before we knew it was a thing. The lungs of people dying from it are pretty distinct. Eventually we will have a very good understanding of it's epidemiology.

The MSM vilified the lockdown protesters because they wanted to reduce our ability to control the spread of the disease at the time when control was most needed. They rarely wore masked and walked around toting guns in lots of cases. I cringe at the George Floyd protests (any mass gathering is foolhardy right now, including these) but at least most of the attendees tend to wear masks. But at this point we've got a handle on the disease and most places are opening up under data-based controls to prevent a run on the hospitals.

Believe what you want, but there's no deception going on, other than the occasional Governor moving the goalposts around to fit the reopening narrative. I think things will remain largely under control for the summer due to summer effect, but I am very worried about the fall.
 

Arjun

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I find this state reopening thing total BS. If you want to contain the virus, it needs to be done as a nation (as a whole). Its totally counterproductive when states undergo Phase 3 reopening while other states are barely making it past Phase 1, and other states not previously affected by the virus are now seeing a significant surge in the number of cases. Again, this is counterproductive. Everyone so concerned about the Economy. Guess what? You won't have an economy if virtually everyone gets infected by this virus. We're not at the level of total automation just yet!

People from Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Maine probably can't take it anymore. So...what do they do? They venture out to scenic byways, stop over for some coffee at a rest area, and voila, Vermont suffers by a surge in COVID-19 cases


Also surprised to see this. Was not expecting the return to normalcy so soon. :eek:


1591874377708.png
 

TonyR

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I find this state reopening thing total BS. If you want to contain the virus, it needs to be done as a nation (as a whole).
Please refer to a copy/paste image below from the data supplied by the link to NPR you furnished (who I think leans to the left just as much as Fox is said by many to lean right).

So you're saying that Montana, with only 2.6% of the number of cases per 100K people and barely over 1% of the total deaths per 100K people, should be handled in the same way as NY?

Now THAT, in my opinion, is "BS." :blankstare:


COVID-19_NY_Mont_RG.jpg
 

Arjun

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In that case, there should be state border patrols, checkpoints, and travel restrictions in place to avoid contamination from people traveling or attempting to escape from the virus. NPR takes the numbers directly from John Hopkins (at least I hope they do), because its good to avoid the left and right BS and just get the information straight from the source (ironically, any .edu domain can also be biased, institutionally-biased, lol). Don't care about NPR and their article (NPR "can't" distort numbers; if they're caught in the action they will loose a lot from their patrons). I only care about the numbers and they appear to come straight from the Source: Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University


Almost the whole world is reporting to John Hopkins as a centralized database. Now who knows if every country has an agenda common-in-interest. :confused:


COVID19.PNG




Please refer to a copy/paste image below from the data supplied by the link to NPR you furnished (who I think leans to the left just as much as Fox is said by many to lean right).

So you're saying that Montana, with only 2.6% of the number of cases per 100K people and barely over 1% of the total deaths per 100K people, should be handled in the same way as NY?

Now THAT, in my opinion, is "BS." :blankstare:


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Jessie.slimer

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In that case, there should be state border patrols, checkpoints, and travel restrictions in place to avoid contamination from people traveling or attempting to escape from the virus.
Are Governors included in the restriction? Because mine is up in Wisconsin with his family again. Its hard to enforce lockdowns when the person creating the lockdown doesn't even believe in it.
 

Arjun

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COVID-19 made me gain a few pounds. Its going to take a while for me to shave off my love handles. Gyms are still closed. That doesn't mean you can't work out,


BONUS:

 

Frankenscript

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There are also constitutional concerns with limiting interstate travel. Here is a nice article.


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Frankenscript

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Garbage. His primary point about states that didn't lock down doing as well as states that did seems to make an assumption that you can compare Wyoming or Utah with New York, Pennsylvania, or Texas as having the same needs.

Rabble rousing fake analysis at its worst

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erkme73

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Garbage. His primary point about states that didn't lock down doing as well as states that did seems to make an assumption that you can compare Wyoming or Utah with New York, Pennsylvania, or Texas as having the same needs.

Rabble rousing fake analysis at its worst

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Don't be so dismissive. From a logical, non emotional standpoint he makes tremendous sense. There is a very large silent (for now) majority that agrees wholeheartedly with his perspective, myself included.
 

Sybertiger

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Don't be so dismissive. From a logical, non emotional standpoint he makes tremendous sense. There is a very large silent (for now) majority that agrees wholeheartedly with his perspective, myself included.
There are a few on here that see "Foxnews" and their TDS kicks in. There will be a cure for Covid-19 before there is one for TDS.
 
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