Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

erkme73

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Is anyone else starting to get concerned about what's happening with the coronavirus from Wuhan? It's difficult to know what is trustworthy information, and why is hype, but honestly, I'm starting to get a real uneasy feeling about what little 'legitimate' info is being reported from the WHO and CDC.

The latest information indicates the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days, and just today, the CDC announced that someone infected may be infectious for the entire time they are asymptomatic. That's scary since it means infections are happening in areas that haven't seen any symptoms, for possibly a week or more.

As an ER doc, my wife is at the tip of the spear when it comes to treating people. And while I'm sure most that are not in the medical field will learn of local infections from word of mouth or local news reports, those reports come from those on the front line - who ultimately will be exposed before any warnings are issued.

I live in a very, very remote area (closest neighbor is more than a mile away, and the closest town with a Walmart is a 2hr RT drive). If things get bad, I can shelter in place (we have adequate food and supplies), but that will be of little consequence if wife is infected in the process of finding the first case of the virus in our area.

If anyone is concerned, the time to prepare is quickly evaporating. N95 and higher masks are all but sold out on Amazon. Emergency food rations are also expected to be exhausted as more people become aware of how real this threat is. As soon as people begin to hear of the increasing death toll and infections within their states, shelves will start to go empty. People will refuse to go to work - refuse to send their kids to school. It could get really ugly.

Many of us have cameras for, among other reasons, due to the distrust of fellow humans. The thin veneer of civility will quickly evaporate in conditions like this. I hope I'm wrong. But I am planing for the worst.
 

guykuo

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High concern here. Looks more like an engineered biotech than a simple cross over virus. Communicable during a long asymptomatic period combined with a delayed fatality is perfect design. Doesn’t help if you obtained the original virus from Canada but your lab failed absolute agent control.

Depending on whether a more virulent or lethal variant or develops, this is going to be globally bad or disastrous. At this point, we have only contact minimization to slow things down. Quarantine is not possible. It is coming one way or another.
 

erkme73

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What? Less than 100 people out of +7 billion. More than +75000 people die from the flu last year.
Just more miss information and fear mongering by the news media.
That's the part that is concerning me. The news media is saying just the opposite... It's not serious. We shouldn't be concerned. But if you read reports elsewhere - namely reports from universities and those on the ground in China who are able to get their accounts out via the social media, it is really bad. I admire your ability to dismiss it so easily, but just today the CDC has upgraded the status to serious. I think we are just one level away from this being declared a global pandemic by the WHO.
 

erkme73

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High concern here. Looks more like an engineered biotech than a simple cross over virus. Communicable during a long asymptomatic period combined with a delayed fatality is perfect design. Doesn’t help if you obtained the original agent from Canada but failed absolute agent control.

Depending on whether a more virulent or lethal variant or develops, this is going to be globally bad or disastrous. At this point, we have only contact minimization to slow things down. Quarantine is not possible. It is coming one way or another.
Yes, I have read all of that, and didn't bring it up because so many get turned off by "conspiracy theory" sounding facts. But yes, the two Chinese lab workers busted for sending this virus from Canada to the bio lab in Wuhan (as documented by CTV and BBC) does raise some read flags.
 

guykuo

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Believe me when I say I would love to be wrong. I am on the front line in the hospital as well.
 

erkme73

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Believe me when I say I would love to be wrong. I am on the front line in the hospital as well.
And you already have (documented) infections in your state. By the time you find someone symptomatic in your facility, chances are you and your staff will have been exposed for weeks prior. The only remedy is to start your shift covered (including eyes) - which will only cause panic and awkwardness. It's a tough position. I wish you luck.
 

Oceanslider

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That's the part that is concerning me. The news media is saying just the opposite... It's not serious. We shouldn't be concerned. But if you read reports elsewhere - namely reports from universities and those on the ground in China who are able to get their accounts out via the social media, it is really bad. I admire your ability to dismiss it so easily, but just today the CDC has upgraded the status to serious. I think we are just one level away from this being declared a global pandemic by the WHO.
What is your wife saying? Since she is an ER Doctor she must have a more inside scoop than most would.
 

erkme73

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What is your wife saying? Since she is an ER Doctor she must have a more inside scoop than most would.
She said that with MERS and SARS, the CDC was sending notices to physicians (directly and via hospitals) on a regular basis. She has received none from the CDC to date.

I asked her at what point she would refuse to go to work... she said, "I'll go if they need me... Hippocratic oath" I told her the oath does no good if she becomes too ill to help anyone - or worse.

We're having regular discussions about it... but she is concerned, to say the least.
 

StratRider

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Reading the thread title I thought this was going to be more about being concerned if someone sneezed into one of our packages being shipped from China.
Just where is Andy getting his stuff from anyway ? hehehehe :D
 

erkme73

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Reading the thread title I thought this was going to be more about being concerned if someone sneezed into one of our packages being shipped from China.
Just where is Andy getting his stuff from anyway ? hehehehe :D
You say that in jest, but according to the latest info, depending on humidity and temperature, the encapsulated virus becomes dormant (and still be able infect) for between 5 and 28 days.
 

mat200

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Is anyone else starting to get concerned about what's happening with the coronavirus from Wuhan? ..

The latest information indicates the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days, and just today, the CDC announced that someone infected may be infectious for the entire time they are asymptomatic. ..
HI @erkme73

as SouthernYankee noted about the number of people who die from the Flu each year we need to keep this in perspective. I'm attempting to find a reasonable balanced view based on data.

Reportedly the R value is some where between 2-3 ( 1 person infects 2-3.. )
Still waiting for more data on it.

Reports I have read from Chinese indicate previous to the recent news - people who died were listed as dying from pneumonia instead of the virus - so the Stats from China appear to be off, especially as the first case in China was early Dec. Journalists and others who were reporting on it early on were censored to "keep the peace" / "keep harmony".

I'm mostly concerned for elderly relatives who are already frail ( been bugging them previously to get flu shots... )

Otherwise I am not too concerned about this being very deadly as so far the reports are this is less deadly than SARS.

Naturally, with some more time we will know for certain.

One thing I am very curious about is how this will affect the "supply chain" as China is now "the world's factory". ( well, in large part )
 
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guykuo

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I watched a Chinese language video by one of their docs suggesting R closer to 15.
A higher value makes more sense with something that has a 14 day infectious, incubation period before symptoms appear.

When we were prepping for SARS, it was close to impossible to always avoid contamination.
This is potentially more insidious. No symptoms means you have no way to decide when to use enhanced measures.
Universal precautions are rather low level protection. I follow universal precautions every day, but this type of situation is worrisome.

More information will eventually be available. I would not panic, but remain wary of CCP provided assurances.

Think of this. Sometimes even following polite customs increases infection risk. I stopped shaking patients hands years ago. It may seem rude, but that made a positive difference compared to just hand gel and washing.
 

sebastiantombs

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All I'll say is to consider that Andy just posted that the ENTIRE province, 50 million people, is on lock down. That tells me that the Chinese government is concerned and they don't have a big history of being concerned about their people. I've also heard rumors, rumors only, that the death rate is far higher than being reported by the Chinese. If true, it's another indicator that there is a very serious problem going on.
 

guykuo

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All those excavators. building 1,000 bed "hospital" in 10 days?
Looks more like a processing center with big pits, but you wouldn't want to call it that in public.
 

Fastb

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depending on humidity and temperature, the encapsulated virus becomes dormant (and still be able infect) for between 5 and 28 days.
A cam shipped from China could contain a dormant virus. Porch pirates are worried, thefts are down.

Really, who wants a cam that infects their entire home camera security system? Will the virus try to "call home" to China, assuming your camera system allows outbound internet messages?

I'm upgrading my VPN to a "Virus Protected Network". Norton is releasing an updated virus detection package. Dahua is enhancing IVS to include Infectious Virus Sensing

I'm also putting white face masks over all my cams, to block the virus if it becomes airborne.
 

StratRider

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I heard today that a doctor was saying that the face masks are useless as this virus is also absorbed through the eyeballs.
 
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