Money & Economics

[bigredfish]

I feel like I’m in good company with Warren sitting on over $300B

Of course that’s sitting in Treasury’s making him 4% or so

Warren Buffett Is Sitting on a Record $334 Billion in Cash Because One Aspect of His Investment Philosophy Is Non-Negotiable | The Motley Fool

The Oracle of Omaha hasn't been buying much -- including his favorite stock -- for more than two years for a very good reason.

www.fool.com

 

[mat200]

lol .. how the White House calculated the "Tariffs" .. THIS is what I mean when I talk about gaslighting ..

Equation looks impressive .. until you start to unpack it ..




The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4.
The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25.

So .. 4 x 0.25 .. is .. lol .. 1 .. in other words, BS added to make equation look more serious




ref :

Reciprocal Tariff Calculations

Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent...

ustr.gov

This is simply Trade Imbalance .. not Tariffs .. geez

 

[bigredfish]

pffffff I did that math in my head

 

[johnfitz]

Dow futures fall 1,500 points Sunday as Trump tariff market rout escalates: Live updates

 

[bigredfish]

A large portion of the Trump "protestors" are paid liberal activists.
A large portion of them are close to or already retired, and aren't very good with investing. Its easy when it goes up. I can train a monkey to do that.
The Market is down, beginning a long delayed inevitable bubble pop.
It's convenient to blame it all on the new tariffs. But Anyone who actually follows the markets, or understands about 30% or less of the tariff issue (Like me), knows this is an excuse not the catalyst

What you're seeing/hearing is shortsighted and stupid investors. If you're retired or very close and are still heavily in the market you either
A) are a fucking idiot or
B) have enough money to burn and/or plan on living long enough for a downturn not to matter

“the stock market is going down, and I don’t like the way that makes me feel".



Just a note on the latest economic news (honestly that translates to “but my 401K!” that so many seem to be freaked out about.
I don’t normally quote catturd because he’s a paid shill, but I think he’s pretty close on this one ..

 

[bigredfish]

Looking like another fun day tomorrow...

 

[David L]

I bet the Bond market is getting flooded right now. When the Market does this many people start buying Bonds.

 

[johnfitz]

lol .. how the White House calculated the "Tariffs" .. THIS is what I mean when I talk about gaslighting ..

Fareed Zakaria mentioned today:

Services imported/exported are not included in the "tariff" calculation. LOL

This is really setting up an environment where businesses will have to further curry favor with politicians. Oh great.

 

[tigerwillow1]

Services imported/exported are not included in the "tariff" calculation. LOL

Well, they did have to tailor the equation to get the result they wanted from it.

 

[tigerwillow1]

I bet the Bond market is getting flooded right now.

I think you'll win that bet. I follow 6-month t-bills and they're down about a quarter point since a week ago. That's a huge movement in that short a time period. A similar move happened a couple of months ago and the yield mostly recovered fairly fast. I'm not predicting a darned thing. I'm usually wrong. And I'm not related to Jim Cramer either.

 

[johnfitz]

Japan has blown a fuse...

Japan - Nikkei 225, Topix futures halted, limit down - first domino?

^^^
First Domino?

Reminder - if it comes to this - US equity futures have 7% price limits circuit breakers

 

[mat200]

ah.. fun with math ..

Explaining the Trump Tariff Equation

 

[johnfitz]

Explaining the Trump Tariff Equation

It's so stupid... how gullible do they think people are?

Trump Tariff Equation = Trump Tax Equation * ((214.3/(100+114.3))-4+18-14)

 

[bigredfish]

I bet the Bond market is getting flooded right now. When the Market does this many people start buying Bonds.

The 10yr is what they have their eye on. It’s the big one.

Interesting that it (yield) tumbled below 4 Friday, but is inching back up, meaning some are selling it. *

*Remember yields go down as demand increases and price goes the opposite.

Smart money had been pouring into it since Jan. Indicating this crash was expected.

If selling continues and Yield continues to go up it would mean either

A- Big players or sovereigns are dumping Treasuries in retaliation
Or
B- the crash is all but over and it’s time to buy

(* I know just enough to be dangerous. YMMV. Would love to hear what those who really understand this shit think)

 

[bigredfish]

I love it when Warren and I win at the same time with the same basic strategy

It doesn’t happen often so I’m gonna gloat while I can

 

[bigredfish]

Asia was CRUSHED

 

[David L]

 

[StevenFromTexas]

If you're retired or very close and are still heavily in the market you either
A) are a fucking idiot or
B) have enough money to burn and/or plan on living long enough for a downturn not to matter

I bought more stock on Friday.

Signed,

A Fucking Idiot

 

[bigredfish]

LOL not if you fall into option B it works both ways I know.

I have some dry powder in a Roth (my play money) but waiting for another 7% or so down.

Success is all about timing right?
I’ve been an idiot a number of times.
My most famous was:

In the 2008/2009 crash I at one time held
10,000 LVS @ $1.53
10,000 PPC Pilgrim Pride @ $.70 ?
5000 LNG @ about $2.50

I got scared and sold all of them for a very modest gain.

I could have retired earlier and VERY well off. I was an idiot.

 

[bigredfish]

Interesting quick take

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-50-correction-is-probable-why-this-veteran-stock-trader-is-100-in-cash-dd22a9af?mod=home_lead