Is the regime in Iran soon to be toast?

from what I can tell :

Oil ... FOFO game, looks like a big L for the USA vs Iran match .. guess this is what happens when you think the Middle East matters less than you imagine.

also shows you that getting rid of US Generals who disagree with you does not result in a win.

really stinks for the USA, ( and much of the world ) and it means Iran will emerge far stronger in the near future


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Interesting Israeli take …

Bottom line: the Israeli interpretation is not that Trump betrayed a loyal ally. It is that Israel overpromised a war, Trump caught on, and Netanyahu now has no leverage, no alternative patron, and no way to answer a public humiliation except to deny it is happening.

 
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bigredfish said:
Interesting Israeli take …

Bottom line: the Israeli interpretation is not that Trump betrayed a loyal ally. It is that Israel overpromised a war, Trump caught on, and Netanyahu now has no leverage, no alternative patron, and no way to answer a public humiliation except to deny it is happening.

Click to expand...


Israelis are screwed if Iran walks away with a win on this one .. they know it's just a matter of time before Hamas, Hezbollah, and others climb over the fortress walls and smoke them all.
 
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mat200 said:
Israelis are screwed if Iran walks away with a win on this one .. they know it's just a matter of time before Hamas, Hezbollah, and others climb over the fortress walls and smoke them all.
Click to expand...

Who knows. Maybe if they don’t give them reason to…?
 
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So we spend 80 billion dollars bombing the fucktardation out of Iran…because of WMD’s….only this time, everyone acknowledges that Iran doesn’t actually possess the WMD’s….but….we have to make sure they never get them……..because Israel. Meanwhile we alienate our Arab allies in the region.

Orange Man is making GW Bush and Obama look smart from a marketing perspective.

Now we apparently/ potentially have 300 billion on the table for Iran as part of a settlement agreement (or so goes the latest scuttlebutt). All so we can end up right where we started except that now we are in a worse position. Now we’ve had our “military supremacy” challenged and ran into the dirt by dune coons. Orange Man fucked up. He was high off Venezuela and let his Israeli donors/ advisors talk him into this nonsense.


Iran holds the cards. All they have to do is hold onto them. You can blockade a blockade all you want….Nothing short of a full on invasion paid for by the blood of American men is going to keep them from controlling that strait. We supposedly have the most advanced Navy on Earth and Iran has been able to shut down that strait with speed boats. The American will necessary to fight this war to a finish does not exist.

Orange Man gambled with chips he doesn’t have. There is no 5D chess. I do not see any way forward where this produces a beneficial outcome for the American people. Best case scenario is that we back away and end up having wasted a ton of money.
 
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Nick Freitas does a good solid review of the situation


Is the War in Iran REALLY Over?
Nick Freitas

It now appears that the war in Iran is officially coming to a close...so here is the question? Who is happy, who is mad, what are the actual terms of peace and is America better off for the conflict...that is what we will be discussing on this episode.



This video, hosted by Nick Freitas, discusses the latest developments regarding the potential end of the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Key takeaways from the discussion:

  • Peace Deal Overview: A peace agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Iran, with an official signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland (0:26-0:44). The agreement includes the immediate termination of military operations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (0:32-0:57).
  • Economic Provisions: The deal involves the release of approximately $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets in a phased manner, contingent upon strict conditions (1:28-1:57, 3:46-4:18). Sanctions on oil exports will be lifted for a specific window to allow for international trade (1:10-1:27, 3:20-3:30).
  • Nuclear and Security Terms: Iran has provided written assurances to halt nuclear weapon development, maintain the nuclear status quo, and reduce stockpiles of enriched uranium (4:34-5:23, 7:23-7:30). Both nations also agreed to a joint mechanism for maritime security (2:59-3:06).
  • Regional Impact and Criticism: The agreement touches on scaling back Iranian support for proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis (4:56-5:04, 8:10-8:13). Israel has expressed frustration over these terms, particularly due to ongoing operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah (8:58-9:12, 10:28-11:08).
  • Strategic Perspective: Nick Freitas analyzes the timing of the conflict and the resulting deal, noting that while the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is a positive outcome, it was a status quo prior to the war (15:06-15:27). He emphasizes that while the deal is not perfect, it may be the most viable path to preventing nuclear proliferation and de-escalating the conflict ahead of upcoming domestic election cycles (24:15-24:47, 36:47-37:06).
 
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