Money & Economics

bigredfish said:
Watch the #SPCX IPO... nobody in their right mind thinks its real.


Here's my assessment of what's going on inside Goldman and Morgan Stanley right about now around the $SPCX IPO.

1) The math isn't mathing for institutional investors to participate at $135/sh in the size they need them to. Research is being heavily pressured by banking to get more aggressive on their estimates/teach-in materials to try to make valuation make sense. It's not working. The biggest brass across the firms are now getting involved - Jamie Dimon & David Solomon are taking meetings - it's all hands on deck.

2) Accordingly, the bookrunners are increasing the % of the deal allocated to retail to 30%. Remember, it's the banks buying the shares from the company and if their largest institutional relationships aren't biting in the size they need them to - they have to find demand somewhere else they're going to be on the hook for the delta between $135/sh and wherever the stock trades multiplied by the number of shares left in inventory. Find the demand - whoever and whatever it takes.

3) Banks are also pressuring the index providers to create forced buying as well across a ton of indices and their associated products. This has worked in some places and hasn't in others (credit to S&P for their backbone here). This will create a large amount of demand but I don't know the math here relative to the float coming public - if anyone has seen smart math here please share.

All and all, this is going to be a fascinating IPO to watch but I have next to zero interest in participating - I suspect I'm in the majority here.
Click to expand...

Nothing fishy here... :lol: :lmao: :winktongue: :p :lmao:


SpaceX reserved up to 5% of the offering for a directed-share program, shares for "certain employees and persons" its executives pick, with no lockup at all.


Fidelity slashed its SpaceX minimum to $2,000 for retail investors — but the fine print can ban you from IPOs for life

For most of history, getting into a marquee IPO at the offer price was a privilege reserved for big accounts. Fidelity just changed that for SpaceX, opening the offering to any customer with at least $2,000 in a retail brokerage account, a fraction of the threshold that has historically gated access to hot new issues.

That's an easy in. The costly out is in the fine print: a 15-calendar-day leash, and penalties that escalate with each early sale until a third strike triggers a lifetime ban on Fidelity IPOs tied to your SSN.

If you're allocated SpaceX shares (limited to begin with) and you sell within the first 15 calendar days from the start of secondary-market trading, Fidelity will label you as a "flipper," and that restricts your access to future new-issue equity offerings through Fidelity. The first day you can sell without the label is the 16th calendar day after the stock starts trading.

Insiders aren't on the same leash. SpaceX reserved up to 5% of the offering for a directed-share program, shares for "certain employees and persons" its executives pick, with no lockup at all. They bought at $135 and can sell on day one, roughly $3.75 billion in stock that can hit the market immediately while retail waits 15 days.
 
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How long can they manipulate US markets before it all comes tumbling down?

Your 401K likely has a Money Market option, might be a good time to use it…

 
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American works are taking home a smaller percentage of corporate profits than ever before.

Employee compensation as a % of corporate GDP has fallen to ~54%, the lowest since records began in 1948. In other words, workers are receiving ~54% of the income generated by corporations, while the remaining ~46% goes to profits, interest, taxes, depreciation, and other corporate income components.

At the same time, US corporate profits as a % of GDP are up to ~11.5%, the highest on record.

Since 2001, employee compensation as a % of corporate GDP has declined -10 points.
Over the same period, the corporate profits proportion of GDP has doubled.

Workers are keeping less of what they produce than at any point in history.

 
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They're going to try and ram as many garbage IPOs down your throat as possible in the next few months before the crash.

 
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