If you look just at the jobs, some argue that we had a recession during Biden's last year, thus why Biden lost. And a move up on Trump's win, and then a drop. ( aka double dip recession ).
( private sector jobs .. )
Though others define recessions as negative GDP .. with AI coming on strong, and the tariffs and related economic rules transitions many businesses are cautious on capex expenditures other than building AI data centers.
From what I can tell the usual GDP and employment numbers are disconnecting.
white collar jobs gonna get hit, and those who have nice homes with mortgages and student loans have a freight train headed their way imho.
Strategists at ING speculated that the dollar might have peaked after its best monthly showing since 2022. The U.S. currency has struggled mightily in 2025. At the end of June, it had tallied its worst first-half showing since at least the early 1970s.
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Now, a new study finds (as did some prior studies) that UBI systems have not achieved significant improvements and may actually have some negative consequences for recipients.
As I’ve said many times and most refuse to see, lowering rates will encourage more inflation, the winners will be .gov and big corps who can pass the increases off to YOU.
It’s already happening but most refuse to see it until they have trouble paying their bills.
‘Stagflation is coming to the U.S.,’ says this economist. Here’s what it means for the dollar, bonds and stocks.
His views on the direction of the U.S. economy are emphatic: inflation is going up, the dollar is going down and the yield curve is steepening.
The inflationary pressures he cites are threefold: a declining dollar (which makes imports more expensive), the restrictions on cheap migrant labor pushing up costs and higher tariffs. That the impact of the tariffs have not manifested itself in data thus far is because they are lagging indicators, he says.