bidens incredible transition to electric cars

[pchiquit]

Interesting read on our electrical system -

West Virginia v. EPA could overturn 2009 carbon endangerment finding that is strangling America’s electricity grid

By Robert Romano One more Supreme Court case to keep your eye on this session — especially since the Court now appears willing to strike down prior precedents — is the imminent ruling on West Virginia v. EPA that, if successful, would overturn federal regulations on carbon [...]

dailytorch.com

I do believe the article is misleading. Different from oil, you can't produce more electricity than what is being consumed or the grid voltage/frequency will get out of the permitted bounds, so this line "overall electricity generation in the U.S. has dropped from 4.005 trillion kWh in 2007 to 3.96 trillion kWh in 2021." should only say that electricity consumption in the USA has dropped. That makes sense, with all the LED lights, more efficient heat pumps and so forth. So that only means that less electricity is being produced because there is less demand for it, not because we are not capable of producing more because of EPA regulations.

Then they say that this is the reason electricity increased by 29 percent since 2007. But if I check the inflation from 2007 to 2022 it says that the 2007 $1 dollar would be a $1.41, so an inflation of 41%. If electricity increases 29% doesn't that mean that the article should say it is 12% cheaper than 2007?

 

[sebastiantombs]

The thing I found interesting was the overall drop in generation capacity despite a growing demand. That doesn't bode well for increasing demands, as from EVs for example if they end up in mass use, and can also explain the predictions of rolling blackouts potentially happening this summer. I would venture that if rolling blackouts don't happen it's more a result of lowered business/industrial demand due to the failing economy rather than any environmental "miracle".

 

[redpoint5]

Electricity demand growth is nearly flat.

Total annual U.S. electricity end-use consumption increased in all but 11 years between 1950 and 2021, and 8 of the years with year-over-year decreases occurred after 2007.

Growth is expected to be very modest. The US has experienced much faster rates of growth essentially since electricity was first adopted.

the annual growth in total U.S. electricity demand is projected to average about 1% from 2021 through 2050

Use of electricity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

TOU pricing combined with EVs might even help to reduce cost per kWh and help to stabilize the grid.

The only way I see EVs being a destabilizing force is if flat-rate pricing continues and EV owners are essentially subsidized by non-EV owners to charge during peak periods. That is what flat pricing is, a subsidy paid by those that consume electricity off-peak to those who use electricity on-peak.

 

[pchiquit]

The thing I found interesting was the overall drop in generation capacity despite a growing demand. That doesn't bode well for increasing demands, as from EVs for example if they end up in mass use, and can also explain the predictions of rolling blackouts potentially happening this summer. I would venture that if rolling blackouts don't happen it's more a result of lowered business/industrial demand due to the failing economy rather than any environmental "miracle".

Where do you see that generating capacity has dropped and demand has increased? As I mentioned, that is not even possible with electricity. It is much like a municipal water system. You can't produce more water than what is consumed. You can store some in water towers, like you can store some electricity into batteries, but you can't produce more than what is consumed.

 

[sebastiantombs]

I understand how electricity generation works. I worked for a major construction company that provided turnkey power stations in the multi megawatt range. Generation capacity is added that can be "spun up" during peak demand times. With cogen and natural gas fired plants this is a viable solution since spin up can be accomplished in a very short time period, as in under an hour, versus bringing up a coal or oil fired boiler plant. If they're not adding generation capacity it is not a good sign.

 

[tigerwillow1]

Based on what I can find, this capacity increase or decrease can be argued till the cows come home. This graph is from

https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/Americas_Electricity_Generation_Capacity_2022_Update.pdf

It clearly shows more generation capacity was added over the 8-year period. This represents peak capacity. The retirements were mostly plants that can operate at full capacity 24x7. More that half of the new additions are wind and solar that are part-time at peak capacity. So while generation capacity, defined as peak, is going up, the real capacity averaged over time could be going down.

This chart from the same source as the blue bar chart above also shows that capacity went up over a 21 year period. The .pdf linked earlier says the US generation capacity in 2022 is just over 1.2 gigawatts, which is close enough to the chart below to be believable. Again, this would be instantaneous peak capacity, not actual capacity averaged over time. (As a personal example, my 8 kW capacity solar installation actually produces about 11,200 kWh over a year, average 30.7 kWh per day, 1.3 kWh per hour. That makes a 1.3 kW coal or gas generator equal to my 8 kW solar installation in terms of actual production capacity.)

 

[sebastiantombs]

Works well, wind and solar added while gas and coal are being decommissioned. What happens after sundown and when the wind is too low or too high? Adding nucs makes more sense than wind or solar.

 

[redpoint5]

Huge difference between dispatchable (can adjust to follow demand) and non-dispatchable power generation (produces what it wants when it wants to.

The analogy I give is restaurant employees. How much would you be willing to pay an employee that comes whenever they want, and leaves whenever they want? You can't ask them to stay late, or come in early, or even keep working. Since they are flaky and can leave instantly, you must have staff on-hand to fill in when they leave or are otherwise not contributing enough. How much do you have to pay those people who are willing to cover whatever is lacking in the flaky person? Why would you even keep a person like that on staff, even if they are willing to work for 2/3rd the pay? Are they really saving you money, or is this a grift?

 

[sebastiantombs]

I know, batteries can handle the down times of wind and solar. Oh wait, batteries need lithium and that takes mining, smelting and production of those batteries which must cost nothing, or close to it, to make it financially feasible. Then there's disposing of those batteries when they reach EOL. That takes a lot of energy and produces lots of toxic substances.

 

[sebastiantombs]

Gotta love EVs -

Journalists Tow Camper Behind Electric Truck, End in Stunning Failure When They Only Make it 85 Miles

Wow! We can go 160 miles before charging! Or make that 150. Or quick, we need to find a charging station right now!

www.westernjournal.com

 

[SJGUSMC21]

My neighbor across the street is a liberal...tries hard to 'act' normal, but he can't. So he was throwing a fit about how much him and his wife were throwing money away to 'big oil' and it pisses him off every time the has to give his hard earned money to them. He drove a 2014 GMC Truck. Nothing fancy, just 2wd extended cab. So in a fit, he flew to some state up north and bought a EV VW 'suv' (IDK exactly what it is) and drove it home. A few days ago he seemed a little down and told me that their combined car payments are over $1500 a month now. On top of that, just as everyone here has seen a large increase in their electric bills, he did as well WITH AN ADDITIONAL $100 a month now, charging his EV. So from one car payment (truck was paid for) and about $500 a month in gas, to his current situation. That's a big nope for me.

 

[garycrist]

Can I sell you some more pipe for those Champaign Dreams and Caviar Wishes?

The math will NEVER WORK!

 

[ncpilot]

Electric Cars Are Now Being Targeted For Overloading The Electric Grids During An Energy Crisis

 

[looney2ns]

My neighbor across the street is a liberal...tries hard to 'act' normal, but he can't. So he was throwing a fit about how much him and his wife were throwing money away to 'big oil' and it pisses him off every time the has to give his hard earned money to them. He drove a 2014 GMC Truck. Nothing fancy, just 2wd extended cab. So in a fit, he flew to some state up north and bought a EV VW 'suv' (IDK exactly what it is) and drove it home. A few days ago he seemed a little down and told me that their combined car payments are over $1500 a month now. On top of that, just as everyone here has seen a large increase in their electric bills, he did as well WITH AN ADDITIONAL $100 a month now, charging his EV. So from one car payment (truck was paid for) and about $500 a month in gas, to his current situation. That's a big nope for me.

 

[Arjun]

Electric Cars is not the solution, period. I don't mind calling myself a climate advocate, but again, Electric Cars will not solve the climate crisis and does not necessarily solve the energy / raw material shortage crisis.

 

[SJGUSMC21]

Car is a 2014.
Has 60K miles on it.
Used they paid 11K.
Owner (17 year old) had car for 6 months before it wouldn't start.
Taken to dealership...batteries are dead. 14K to replace.
They no longer make those batteries for that car.

Florida family drives into electric car problem: a replacement battery costs more than vehicle itself

A Florida family ran into a major problem after buying an electric vehicle, the replacement battery costs more than they bought the car for.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Gargoile]

View attachment 133824
Car is a 2014.
Has 60K miles on it.
Used they paid 11K.
Owner (17 year old) had car for 6 months before it wouldn't start.
Taken to dealership...batteries are dead. 14K to replace.
They no longer make those batteries for that car.

Florida family drives into electric car problem: a replacement battery costs more than vehicle itself

A Florida family ran into a major problem after buying an electric vehicle, the replacement battery costs more than they bought the car for.

www.foxbusiness.com

This will be an issue. With each new revision of the car, the batteries will not be the same as the new battery design and configuration will change over time. And the fact that models no longer being made, why is there a need for the manufacture to continue to produce them. This will lead to a 3rd party making a replacement ( if they see it as being profitable)

Right now it is very hard to get a replacement battery for a Tesla roadster (2008-2012). There is a company that buys totaled/dead roadsters just for their battery packs to break them down and use the good cells to restore other battery packs. I guess this falls under planned obsolescence.....

If you go to a car show you will see all kinds of cars and even some that were made over 100 years ago, cars with ICE still drivable. With an EV car, you "might" see one that is 20 years old, but I don't think you will unless they push it there. But once the battery pack is dead, so is the car. I see plenty of really nicely clean lawn ornaments in the future., like above.

 

[Arjun]

Planned Obsolescence

View attachment 133824
Car is a 2014.
Has 60K miles on it.
Used they paid 11K.
Owner (17 year old) had car for 6 months before it wouldn't start.
Taken to dealership...batteries are dead. 14K to replace.
They no longer make those batteries for that car.

Florida family drives into electric car problem: a replacement battery costs more than vehicle itself

A Florida family ran into a major problem after buying an electric vehicle, the replacement battery costs more than they bought the car for.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[redpoint5]

View attachment 133824
Car is a 2014.
Has 60K miles on it.
Used they paid 11K.
Owner (17 year old) had car for 6 months before it wouldn't start.
Taken to dealership...batteries are dead. 14K to replace.
They no longer make those batteries for that car.

Florida family drives into electric car problem: a replacement battery costs more than vehicle itself

A Florida family ran into a major problem after buying an electric vehicle, the replacement battery costs more than they bought the car for.

www.foxbusiness.com

The battery warranty is 8 years and 100k miles. Maybe it's just outside of 8 years now?

They're ways to determine battery health prior to purchase, but hardly anyone knows how and it's not reasonable to expect a consumer to know how to do it (or own the tools / apps necessary).

My brother in-law bought a Leaf EV for my parents without consulting me, which both annoys me and makes me grateful that he would be so generous. He knew I was going to buy them an EV and that I know a ton about it, but he paid too much for an old one with a pretty weak battery. Those in the know avoid used Ford, VW, and Nissan EVs because their battery management is not good and the packs degrade prematurely.

 

[SJGUSMC21]

The battery warranty is 8 years and 100k miles. Maybe it's just outside of 8 years now?

They're ways to determine battery health prior to purchase, but hardly anyone knows how and it's not reasonable to expect a consumer to know how to do it (or own the tools / apps necessary).

My brother in-law bought a Leaf EV for my parents without consulting me, which both annoys me and makes me grateful that he would be so generous. He knew I was going to buy them an EV and that I know a ton about it, but he paid too much for an old one with a pretty weak battery. Those in the know avoid used Ford, VW, and Nissan EVs because their battery management is not good and the packs degrade prematurely.

Very good points redpoint5. Thank you. Though it may seem that I am against EV's, I can assure you I am not. I got into the world of Electric RC Helicopters/Airplanes and I am not talking the toy ones. LIPO batteries changed the RC world forever, but there is a price with them and that is they are damn dangerous. So I fully understand the power of electric motors, batteries and so on. And I know that this along with other forms of renewable energy will help offset fossil fuels. For those jumping on the EV Band Wagon, well, all I can say is better them than me. In time, but it isn't the right time for me and my family at this point...and IMO for many as well.