Money & Economics

Endgame: Interest On US Debt Surpasses $1 Trillion For First Time Ever, Exploding August Budget Deficit To Record High

…..Yet looking at the dire big picture, it is unfortunately all downhill from here for one simple reason: we have now crossed the Minsky Moment in terms of how much the US spends on interest on its debt, which as regular readers know is hitting a new record high every day - it just closed above $35.3 trillion - and is growing by about $1 trillion every 100 days. That means that with interest rates at 40 year highs, the prediction we made last July, has finally come true because according to today's Budget statement, the amount spent on gross interest in August was $92.3 billion...



... which means that the cumulative total for Fiscal 2024 - where there is one more month to go until the end of the fiscal year (which ends Sept 30) - just hit an all time high of $1.049 trillion, the first time in history when interest on US debt has surpassed $1 trillion.

... and the stunning punchline is that as of today, gross interest on US debt has surpassed not just Defense spending, but also Income Security, Health, Veterans Benefits and Medicare, and is now the second biggest outlay of the US government, second only to Social Security, which is roughly $1.5 trillion annualized.



But wait, there's more: the latest numbers confirm that we are well on our way to hitting our other forecast from April 1, of the US hitting an insane $1.6 trillion in interest expense by the year-end...





….which mean interest expense will soon surpass Social Security spending and become the single largest outlay of the US government, some time in late 2024 or early 2025 at the earliest.
In other words, game over.

Which begs the question: why would Trump even want to be in charge when the house of cards finally comes crashing down. Let Kamala have it...
 
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I wonder how many rocket surgeons understand that the Fed interest rate cut means the banks will (have been for months) cut the rate they pay you for saving such as money market accounts and CDs?
 
I wonder how many rocket surgeons understand that the Fed interest rate cut means the banks will (have been for months) cut the rate they pay you for saving such as money market accounts and CDs?
Going to check out account now :)
 
It's dropping this month

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Trump vows to reverse SALT deduction cap he signed in 2017

There's a political angle too, pandering to voters in high-tax states like New York and New Jersey, In 2017 this was sold as preventing the rest of the country from subsidizing wealthy people in high tax states, and now all of a sudden the opposite is the right thing?

From the economic standpoint, I think the arguments to eliminate the $10k deduction limit are bogus:

"But there has been a growing chorus of lawmakers who say the cap hurts middle-class homeowners living in regions with steep property taxes. They also have criticized the limit as a "marriage penalty" because it is the same for single and joint filers."

I call baloney on this one because with the higher standard deduction, very few "middle class" taxpayers end up itemizing, and the standard deduction does not have a marriage penalty.
 
Endgame: Interest On US Debt Surpasses $1 Trillion For First Time Ever, Exploding August Budget Deficit To Record High

…..Yet looking at the dire big picture, it is unfortunately all downhill from here for one simple reason: we have now crossed the Minsky Moment in terms of how much the US spends on interest on its debt, which as regular readers know is hitting a new record high every day - it just closed above $35.3 trillion - and is growing by about $1 trillion every 100 days. That means that with interest rates at 40 year highs, the prediction we made last July, has finally come true because according to today's Budget statement, the amount spent on gross interest in August was $92.3 billion...



... which means that the cumulative total for Fiscal 2024 - where there is one more month to go until the end of the fiscal year (which ends Sept 30) - just hit an all time high of $1.049 trillion, the first time in history when interest on US debt has surpassed $1 trillion.

... and the stunning punchline is that as of today, gross interest on US debt has surpassed not just Defense spending, but also Income Security, Health, Veterans Benefits and Medicare, and is now the second biggest outlay of the US government, second only to Social Security, which is roughly $1.5 trillion annualized.



But wait, there's more: the latest numbers confirm that we are well on our way to hitting our other forecast from April 1, of the US hitting an insane $1.6 trillion in interest expense by the year-end...





….which mean interest expense will soon surpass Social Security spending and become the single largest outlay of the US government, some time in late 2024 or early 2025 at the earliest.
In other words, game over.

Which begs the question: why would Trump even want to be in charge when the house of cards finally comes crashing down. Let Kamala have it...
 
Trump vows to reverse SALT deduction cap he signed in 2017

There's a political angle too, pandering to voters in high-tax states like New York and New Jersey, In 2017 this was sold as preventing the rest of the country from subsidizing wealthy people in high tax states, and now all of a sudden the opposite is the right thing?

From the economic standpoint, I think the arguments to eliminate the $10k deduction limit are bogus:

"But there has been a growing chorus of lawmakers who say the cap hurts middle-class homeowners living in regions with steep property taxes. They also have criticized the limit as a "marriage penalty" because it is the same for single and joint filers."

I call baloney on this one because with the higher standard deduction, very few "middle class" taxpayers end up itemizing, and the standard deduction does not have a marriage penalty.

As one who lives in a high tax state (<-- understatement of the year...), I agreed with the limit on philosophical grounds-- the Federal government should not suffer lower revenue because some states are horribly run. That said, I wouldn't complain if the limit was increased or eliminated, because it would mean a lot more money in my pocket.

And contrary to your last statement, yes, there are quite a few middle-class taxpayers in a lot of areas who itemize. If you look at the income it takes to afford the average house, along with a mortgage at ~6%, plus property taxes of $15k a year, and income tax of ~8%, it will hit quite a few. That's not to defend the idiotic tax-and-spend practices of the People's Republik of Kalifornia, but that's what happens.
 
If you look at the income it takes to afford the average house, along with a mortgage at ~6%, plus property taxes of $15k a year, and income tax of ~8%, it will hit quite a few.
You're right. I was looking at it from a renter or paid off house viewpoint.
 
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Checked the Money Market, since the Fed drop we see the drop from 4.9 to 4.6% CDs look bad now to buy, well no more 5% CDs out there anymore. We have some locked in for 5 years so we are good...did the wheel, 5 years, 4 years, 3 years, 2 and one 1 year maturing next month.
 
Yeah, if it will hold until Oct 27 when I have 2 maturing I can still get 4.85 on an 11 month from Regions. As you say the 5%+ CD's are history.

Not sure what I'll do when the next couple mature yet...
 
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Yeah, if it will hold until Oct 27 when I have 2 maturing I can still get 4.85 on an 11 month from Regions. As you say the 5%+ CD's are history.

Not sure what I'll do when the next couple mature yet...
Are your CDs Call Protected? Meaning they can call back your CD at any time...