Money & Economics

[mat200]

LOL well you're wild assed guesses are as good as mine I suppose.

I dont think anyone thinks we'll get ALL industrial base back. But some, many have already announced in just 2 days they are moving production here

Agreed, Europe will continue to try and provoke Russia into a bigger longer war. They have to, they're broke.

Agree, no short term reconciliation. China is our #1 competitor and "enemy"

USA Defense Ind will be just fine. Sold 2B of Patriot batterys to Poland just yesterday. But sure, others will prosper where the tariffs make enough difference.

LOL it will take some time to lose 200-300 $Billion in sales

"Agreed, Europe will continue to try and provoke Russia into a bigger longer war. They have to, they're broke."

Europe never wanted this war PERIOD.

Europe does NOT want to provoke Russia.

Europe was happy enough with the status of post 2014 with Russia ..
Russia's 2022 re-invasion of Ukraine 100% made it clear that Russia is an expansionist state that breaks peace treaties repeatedly.

Think of Europe as the pretty girl living next to the abusive rapist, and you'll understand this better.

It really is simple, Europe knows Nazi Germany and Soviet Union started WWII
All nations which have been conquered and lived under Russian authoritarianism do not want a repeat of it.

Poland, Ukraine, Baltics .. all got majorly crushed under Russian Empire. They know they cherish their freedom, and they know the only way Russia will stop is that Russia has to basically lose this Russo-Ukraine War, otherwise it is just a "reload" period for Russia.

Putin himself is NOT interested in peace. Otherwise he would have taken the numerous off ramps he has had up to this time.

reports now are that Putin is preparing another major push into Ukraine.

Donald Trump thinks he can get Putin on his side vs China ? lol .. that is a super long shot imho.

 

[mat200]

^^^*^
On the other hand …
View attachment 218491

I have seen reports that China's Real Estate and Infrastructure was about 31% of their GDP .. all of that is basically now in the shitter so to speak.

Europe and USA are the biggest value consumers of Chinese produced goods, and China has failed to make their own people solid consumers.

I do not see China as being able to ignore the US customer

just like I see the US not able to ignore the Chinese in the global supply chain.

 

[bigredfish]

Ouch

 

[bigredfish]

 

[bigredfish]

 

[mat200]

View attachment 218496

Imho EPA standards should be paused also.

Getting tired of having too many plastics parts break in my car

 

[bigredfish]

The EU is Bigly mad.
How dare we put tariffs on their goods that are 1/2 of the tariffs they put on ours.

 

[mat200]

The EU is Bigly mad.
How dare we put tariffs on their goods that are 1/2 of the tariffs they put on ours.

Lol the "Tariffs" posted by Trump appear to be in some cases a ratio of the trade deficit. SO just more gaslighting if you really care about truth

Last I checked China now has added 34% tariffs on us goods

 

[bigredfish]

Top 25 Largest 2‑Day Declines:

1987‑10‑19: -24.57%
1929‑10‑29: -21.78%
1933‑07‑21: -16.81%
1987‑10‑20: -16.23%
1929‑11‑06: -14.66%
2020‑03‑12: -13.93%
1932‑10‑10: -13.59%
1933‑07‑20: -13.36%
1940‑05‑14: -12.59%
1932‑05‑31: -12.52%
2008‑11‑20: -12.42%
1929‑10‑28: -11.69%
1929‑11‑12: -11.57%
1929‑11‑13: -11.08%
1932‑09‑13: -10.86%
2025‑04‑04: -10.53%
1937‑10‑18: -10.11%
1933‑10‑16: -10.06%
2008‑11‑06: -10.03%
1932‑06‑08: -9.86%
1932‑09‑14: -9.82%
2008‑10‑15: -9.52%
1933‑10‑19: -9.46%
2008‑10‑07: -9.37%
1931‑09‑21: -9.22%

 

[bigredfish]

Lol the "Tariffs" posted by Trump appear to be in some cases a ratio of the trade deficit. SO just more gaslighting if you really care about truth

Last I checked China now has added 34% tariffs on us goods

LOL Im not trying to gaslight anyone.

If you care about the truth, given what the EU has become, I'm all for 100% tariffs on them

China
Trump hit China with a 34% reciprocal tariff rate that will stack on top of the 20% tariffs that are already in place. This is a big problem for China, because their economic model is based on subsidising (over)production and then exporting the surplus into the world’s biggest consumer market: the USA

LOL

Full List

Donald Trump tariffs in full: Exactly how much the US is taxing imports from each country

The UK will face a minimum 10 per cent tariff on goods exported to the United States

www.gbnews.com

 

[bigredfish]

Feel free to propose your own equation that incorporates fees, VAT, subsidies, etc.. I don't know how they calculated it all.

I only know what Ive read the past 2 days.
I don;t know if it will work, if Trump is just lying his ass off and the EU and China are angels and not deserving of this, but few are are arguing that side of the argument with any vigor.

I found a guy who agrees with you

 

[bigredfish]

Mitch no likey.
(well to be Truthful, whomever is writing his tweets)

Of course his family income is heavily dependent on his Chinese spy wife and their "connections"

 

[bigredfish]

 

[mat200]

LOL Im not trying to gaslight anyone.

If you care about the truth, given what the EU has become, I'm all for 100% tariffs on them

China
Trump hit China with a 34% reciprocal tariff rate that will stack on top of the 20% tariffs that are already in place. This is a big problem for China, because their economic model is based on subsidising (over)production and then exporting the surplus into the world’s biggest consumer market: the USA

LOL

Full List

Donald Trump tariffs in full: Exactly how much the US is taxing imports from each country

The UK will face a minimum 10 per cent tariff on goods exported to the United States

www.gbnews.com

I believe you are being gaslighted ..

re the Tariffs, there's a good interview with Tim Lee which covers more on it that is interesting.
I'm still looking for a good link on it.
( Trump and the White House is clearly gaslighting us on the actual Tariff data .. it may serve a point, as many Americans are short of economics knowledge )

Basically some of the "tariffs" calculate where along the lines of a ratio for trade imbalances between the USA and Nation X .. claiming that amount was the tariff is inaccurate by all the economic standards I have seen

 

[bigredfish]

Yes I understand that. It was mentioned yesterday. I don’t think it matters how the percentages were arrived at, and I’m seeing pro economists argue over the method used all day today. So doubtful we’ll get to consensus soon.

Whether they are good or bad seems to also be a seesaw of opinions . I don’t know. I don’t think they are so much the reason for the today sell off as much as a good excuse for it.

The bubble is popping and we’ll be in recession soon regardless.

Funny, first time I’ve actually played with Grok and he seems to think so too

When oil prices drop, bonds rise, and stocks collapse, it signals economic distress—likely a deflationary recession. Falling oil reflects weak demand, rising bonds show investors seeking safety, and a crashing stock market indicates fear of earnings drops. This combo suggests a serious slowdown, potentially as bad as past recessions like 2008, depending on how long it lasts and how policymakers respond. Tariffs add extra risk, making it a worrying sign for the economy ahead.

 

[David L]

Ouch

View attachment 218493

 

[bigredfish]

But still up 20 something % from 3 years ago. About the same as my boring fixed income stuff.
I like boring !

 

[mat200]

Quick take from Sowell ..


Thomas Sowell Discusses The Trump Tariffs | Uncommon Knowledge | Full Interview on April 15, 2025

 

[bigredfish]

You know I respect Mr Sowell about as much as anyone on this planet, and I don’t disagree with him.

But…. This financial reset was coming with or without Trump or tariffs. (Many of which are legitimately reciprocal.)

I think I agree with Grok. Tariffs may have been the excuse, or trigger depending on how you view it, but if he pulled them tomorrow I don’t think it fundamentally changes the deep financial shit we’re all in.

Lots of way smarter people than I are arguing both for and against. I’m just trying to figure out where the opportunity is for me. Gold? Buy the Dip, Wait for real estate to crash and gobble one up?, sit tight? (I’m not exposed to the market)

My gut tells me to sit tight in cash and fixed income for now because I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet.

 

[David L]

You know I respect Mr Sowell about as much as anyone on this planet, and I don’t disagree with him.

But…. This financial reset was coming with or without Trump or tariffs. (Many of which are legitimately reciprocal.)

I think I agree with Grok. Tariffs may have been the excuse, or trigger depending on how you view it, but if he pulled them tomorrow I don’t think it fundamentally changes the deep financial shit we’re all in.

Lots of way smarter people than I are arguing both for and against. I’m just trying to figure out where the opportunity is for me. Gold? Buy the Dip, Wait for real estate to crash and gobble one up?, sit tight? (I’m not exposed to the market)

My gut tells me to sit tight in cash and fixed income for now because I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet.

Agree.

People holding onto cash is nothing new. Many people I know did this even right before the 2024 Election. It happens all the time. I too respect Thomas who is full of wisdom. Man he is getting old and lost some weight, hope he is ok...

I am willing to ride this storm out. Biden did NOTHING to try and improve the U.S. Trump is a business man, let's see if he can work his magic...we will know in the first year or two how this pans out.

Every country is indebt up to their eyeballs. Something has to burst, we know it is coming. I am all for manufacturing things here, we depend way too much on other countries for our goods, so I am with Trump on this.

Drill, Drill, Drill...

My son-in-law bought stock in Mineral Rights, not sure how that works, but two companies he bought stock in own mineral rights to land so it can be drilled on.

Sustainable Seabed Mining to Extract $100 Trillion Metal Reserves

The future of deep-sea mining holds both promise and challenges. As the demand for critical minerals continues to rise, it is essential to strike a balance between resource extraction and environmental preservation.

impossiblemetals.com

He mentioned $100 Trillion that our Gov't is sitting on. Our Gov't owns 20% of the land in the US, he said. So Drill, Drill, Drill...we are sitting on gold...