bigredfish
Known around here
If I recall, and the numbers are still under lock and key by Cuomo, NY somethig approaching 10,000 deaths are attributed to nursing homes....
Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?
- Thread starter erkme73
- Start date
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First Point-of-Care Antibody Test for COVID-19
Today, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for the first serology (antibody) point-of-care (POC) test for COVID-19.
From the press release:
The FDA wants to remind patients that it is unknown how long antibodies persist following infection and if the presence of antibodies confers protective immunity,
I'm troubled by the fact that after having millions of known infections over the last 7 months, they still do not know how long antibodies persist, or whether or not the same person has been tested positive on two or more seperate occasions. It's this kind of stuff that is causing doubt, at least for me, in the "experts"
sebastiantombs
Known around here
Once gain, numbers don't lie -
www.heritage.org
Disclaimer - Yeah, I know it's from one of those "far right" sources
One Percent of U.S. Counties Account for Bulk of COVID-19 Deaths
While the death toll in the U.S. from COVID-19 continues to increase, a significant proportion of those deaths have occurred in just a handful of counties. In fact, the 30 counties with the most deaths represent 1 percent of all counties in the U.S.
www.heritage.org
Disclaimer - Yeah, I know it's from one of those "far right" sources
Frankenscript
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This makes sense. Populous counties with higher population density will have the most deaths. If I read the chart right, that 1% of counties has like 18% of the US population in it, and 39% of the deaths. Makes sense.Once gain, numbers don't lie -
One Percent of U.S. Counties Account for Bulk of COVID-19 Deaths
While the death toll in the U.S. from COVID-19 continues to increase, a significant proportion of those deaths have occurred in just a handful of counties. In fact, the 30 counties with the most deaths represent 1 percent of all counties in the U.S.
Disclaimer - Yeah, I know it's from one of those "far right" sources
I'm a creature of suburbia and have been urbanophobic since I was a kid. Works for me
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sebastiantombs
Known around here
But this also implies that what measures work in high population concentrations may not be appropriate for more rural, less densely populated areas. In other words one size doesn't fit all. Then throw in the whole extended care, nursing home, debacle and the numbers would undoubtedly be pretty significantly different.
There are a whole lot of various things that cast doubt on what we're told. Here's a case of a 26 year old who died a few months ago. Death was listed as covid, and used at least by the media to stir up fear that younger people were at risk. Family didn't believe the result. County wouldn't listen to them. State wouldn't listen to them. Only after the family hiring a private pathologist did the officials start to listen. Now CDC tests confirm he didn't have covid. His death certificate got changed, but all the fear that was stirred up lives on.
Oregon's youngest reported COVID-19 victim did not have the virus, CDC test finds
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Manipulating tests and results to achieve a desired outcome is not science.
Frankenscript
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Having read the article, nobody manipulated test results to achieve some desired outcome.
The person died of acute lung failure and clotting; these are signature COVID-19 features that during the pandemic are usually due to COVID-19. It was listed as a probable COVID-19 death (not a confirmed one), and the blood test came back negative after he died. In the middle of a pandemic doing an autopsy to clear it up was probably considered a waste of resources like personnel, PPE that is in short supply, and so on. Resources are focused on saving the living.
Sometimes there are false negatives. No tests are perfect. It was reasonable for the doctors to assume COVID. Note that many/most states separate out probable cases. Indiana does, for example, and we've got 225 such cases out of just shy of 4000 total deaths.
It's certainly the family's right to have a private autopsy done. It showed no evidence of COVID-19 and he has been scrubbed from the case/death records of COVID-19. Nobody pushed this for ulterior motives.
Any death is a tragedy, but here the system worked as well as could be expected under the circumstances.
It doesn't take away from the reality that COVID-19 can impact young folks. Here's a young doctor killed recently by the disease:
buffalonews.com
The person died of acute lung failure and clotting; these are signature COVID-19 features that during the pandemic are usually due to COVID-19. It was listed as a probable COVID-19 death (not a confirmed one), and the blood test came back negative after he died. In the middle of a pandemic doing an autopsy to clear it up was probably considered a waste of resources like personnel, PPE that is in short supply, and so on. Resources are focused on saving the living.
Sometimes there are false negatives. No tests are perfect. It was reasonable for the doctors to assume COVID. Note that many/most states separate out probable cases. Indiana does, for example, and we've got 225 such cases out of just shy of 4000 total deaths.
It's certainly the family's right to have a private autopsy done. It showed no evidence of COVID-19 and he has been scrubbed from the case/death records of COVID-19. Nobody pushed this for ulterior motives.
Any death is a tragedy, but here the system worked as well as could be expected under the circumstances.
It doesn't take away from the reality that COVID-19 can impact young folks. Here's a young doctor killed recently by the disease:
UB medical school grad who died of Covid-19 called 'bright spot'
A UB medical school graduate who died Saturday after a battle with Covid-19 is remembered as an excellent student with a bright future.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
I'd say putting the cause of death as Covid on an official death certificate when a positive Covid test result was not achieved is manipulation. Results based on guesses or assumptions. Not science.
sebastiantombs
Known around here
Oh, but this an anecdotal, isolated case! Yeah, right, and the sun will rise in the west tomorrow morning, too.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
The worst part of the article:
"They also feel their son could have gotten help if doctors didn't assume he had the virus."
Yikes. Lawsuit coming?
"They also feel their son could have gotten help if doctors didn't assume he had the virus."
Yikes. Lawsuit coming?
Frankenscript
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I think you guys are reading too much into this.
There are >200,000 recorded COVID-19 deaths. From places that record "probable" versus confirmed, something like 5% of the deaths are in the probable category, and most of those were from the timeframe when testing had limited availability. So there are probably thousands of deaths where COVID-19 was assumed but not proven. Most of these likely were COVID, a few were probably not. And, there's probably another 60k deaths that we're not seeing that haven't even been recorded as COVID-19, based on the excess death burden data, and most of those are likely COVID-19 too. It's a statistical exercise. We don't have resources to get these things exactly right. But the story is clear.
Even now, it can take a week or two to get a result. This guy had what looked like COVID, he died, some days later his test came back negative, but the death certificate was already filed. Since false negatives do happen and there was no better cause of death to use, why would they change it?? At the time of death (or, within a short time thereafter) they had to file the death certificate; putting in COVID-19 before the test came back is not suspicious or unethical. It was the best call they could make.
When they got data that it definitely wasn't (per the CDC) they amended the certificate. Case closed. Except, they still don't know why he died.
There are >200,000 recorded COVID-19 deaths. From places that record "probable" versus confirmed, something like 5% of the deaths are in the probable category, and most of those were from the timeframe when testing had limited availability. So there are probably thousands of deaths where COVID-19 was assumed but not proven. Most of these likely were COVID, a few were probably not. And, there's probably another 60k deaths that we're not seeing that haven't even been recorded as COVID-19, based on the excess death burden data, and most of those are likely COVID-19 too. It's a statistical exercise. We don't have resources to get these things exactly right. But the story is clear.
Even now, it can take a week or two to get a result. This guy had what looked like COVID, he died, some days later his test came back negative, but the death certificate was already filed. Since false negatives do happen and there was no better cause of death to use, why would they change it?? At the time of death (or, within a short time thereafter) they had to file the death certificate; putting in COVID-19 before the test came back is not suspicious or unethical. It was the best call they could make.
When they got data that it definitely wasn't (per the CDC) they amended the certificate. Case closed. Except, they still don't know why he died.
And why was it already filed (not that you or I know if that's true)? Oregon requires the filing in 5 calendar days. The test results came in 2 days after his death. I'll answer my own question: Whether or not the death certificate was filed before the test result came in, the rush was on to blame every death on covid if at all possible. For 2 months the stats and media have been able to say "First under age 30 death in Oregon". How many people under 30 have been reported to die from covid in Oregon? The state data today says 2. Was this error case backed out of the total? I don't know that. If it was, this one highly publicized case corrupted the the GIGO data by 33%, if not the input data was corrupted by 50%. Sounds unethical to me at several levels, and as Chris Martensen keeps saying "It didn't have to be this way:.
Another confidence builder. These things keep popping up in the local news, I'm not out looking for them.
Oregon State freshman tests positive and negative for COVID-19 on same day
Answering the obvious question, the positive test was administered first. A doctor quoted in the article explains that one of the tests could be a false positive, or the other could be a false negative, and the student needs to be presumed positive until a tiebreaker test is administered. There were 24 positives from this round of incoming student testing. They're probably all in the active cases count by now.
Oregon State freshman tests positive and negative for COVID-19 on same day
Answering the obvious question, the positive test was administered first. A doctor quoted in the article explains that one of the tests could be a false positive, or the other could be a false negative, and the student needs to be presumed positive until a tiebreaker test is administered. There were 24 positives from this round of incoming student testing. They're probably all in the active cases count by now.
Frankenscript
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Real quick:
The description of the testing sample collection methodology sounds horrible. Hopefully someone is investigating.
But:. From the limited details it sounds like the school administered a sensitive pcr test and the doctor did a quicker antibody test that is much less sensitive (she got results very fast at doctor's office; pcr takes longer than that).
Unless there is further detail somewhere it sounds like either she is really positive based on the more sensitive test, or her sample got contaminated during collection.
It's not clear if school private testing results go into official case counts... I believe it varies based on school and state.
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The description of the testing sample collection methodology sounds horrible. Hopefully someone is investigating.
But:. From the limited details it sounds like the school administered a sensitive pcr test and the doctor did a quicker antibody test that is much less sensitive (she got results very fast at doctor's office; pcr takes longer than that).
Unless there is further detail somewhere it sounds like either she is really positive based on the more sensitive test, or her sample got contaminated during collection.
It's not clear if school private testing results go into official case counts... I believe it varies based on school and state.
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Oceanslider
Known around here
The only thing worse than COVID-19 is Biden-20
Frankenscript
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Now who is the one injecting politics here? 
I'm trying to avoid it; it gets harder by the day.
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I'm trying to avoid it; it gets harder by the day.
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Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
But we are expected to keep quiet and listen to the experts. We can't even test reliably for the virus, but a vaccine is right around the corner?