I'd like to see a bunch of what-if hindsight charts that are impossible to make:
1. What if there were no lockdowns?
2. What if there was no mask wearing?
3. How many of the excess deaths are from the disease vs. the cure? (i.e. excess suicides, oxygen deprivation, etc.)
4. How many of the deaths happened because of cases forced into nursing homes?
5. What would the chart be had we followed the Sweden model?
No second chance to try it a different way unfortunately.
I'd like to see those charts too. But you're right, we can only make educated guesses as to what they may contain.
However, if we combine questions 1, 2, and 5, we can probably get in the ball park. Here in this thread, we've talked about Sweden a lot. Early on, they had a very light response to the pandemic, both by the government and the people there as a whole. Few precautions, pretty much people going about their business as normal. People were a little more careful, but that's about it. Call it a "2" on the ten point lockdown scale. Finland and Norway, as you may recall, locked down hard and fast. Basically, during the spring there you didn't go out of your house unless it was for food or medical purposes, or if you were serving a vital industry like keeping the power on, and when you went out you masked up and distanced like crazy. Call this an 8 on the 10 point scale, in part due to what the governments ordered and in part because the populace embraced the restrictions effectively.
Keep in mind Sweden, Norway, and Finland all have similar population densities, similar ways of life, similar diets, similar health statistics and age demographics. You really can compare one to the other.
Over the course of the spring, Sweden racked up 10x more cases and deaths than Finland and Norway, per capita. So, the difference between a 2 and an 8 on the COVID-19 impact scale is 10x. Sweden was essentially the nightmare scenario for a while until the government imposed restrictions and people started following them (actually, people there got scared before the government started acting, when the people saw their death rate was horrific compared to their neighbors).
We can't directly compare the US with those Nordic countries because our demographics are quite different, we are fatter and overall less healthy in terms of lifestyle, and overall we tend to have a higher population density.
But, if we rate our response to the pandemic during the spring, our lockdown scale factor probably is a 6, maybe a 5 factoring in the fact that huge numbers of people ignored restrictions. Lots of stores were open, and many industries stayed open that were considered essential here, but not in most European countries (for example, home building and construction in general continued unabated).
So the question is, what multiple of spread (and cases and deaths) would we have seen if we had been a 2 instead of a 5? It will be less than 10 for sure. Probably between 3 and 5 somewhere... but our health system wouldn't have been up to it. Here in Indiana if we had twice as many hospitalizations, they would have been turning people away at the doors. The spring surge varied by locations, some places weren't hit too bad until later in the year. But, in the big cities and other places that were stressed during the March-May surge, the death and suffering toll would have exceeded a simple multiple of the COVID-19 cases. Like you say, we'll never know for sure. Your guess is as good as mine.
In the summer I looked at comparing the % deaths in nursing homes versus overall... expecting to see in NY for example a much worse story than elsewhere, but actually NY was only a bit worse, at the time. Here in Indiana, something like 60% of the spring deaths were in nursing homes / care facilities and there were no "Cuomo-like" orders forcing people in. I would be interested to read an analysis by folks with better time and
tools to dig into it than me.
Your question about suicide is a good one; certainly it went up last year. Usually it's around 48k/year. I heard once in the fall that it looked like it was trending about 10% up, but I never looked up the figures for myself. It's probably in the CDC data. I've used up my free time for the night (gotta make dinner now!) but if you dig it up please post it. I would be interested to see the actual number. I bet it went up farther in the winter. Still, the difference between baseline and covid-situation-induced suicides is likely under 10k. Every one a tragedy. Still, small compared to directly caused deaths.
Have a good night.