Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[Frankenscript]

"It did not have to be this way"

From Peak Prosperity today's video ( Tue 6/30/2020 ):

Thanks for sharing. Great video article.

I particularly liked these two parts:


This really shows the state by state differences and where the hotspots are. Many of the people I correspond with who were saying "COVID is over" have changed their tune, and some mask-scoffers are now wearing masks. Also I'm hearing a lot less noise out of folks particularly in Michigan who were protesting the lockdown; Michigan demonstrated one of the best recovery-from-hotspot profiles and I think people now realize the tough measures were needed, though things are starting to tick up there again as show by the link in your other post.

This graph saddens me:



Like the Peak Prosperity guy says, it didn't have to be this way.

 

[Jessie.slimer]

I had lunch with a friend INSIDE a restaurant today. It felt strange.

 

[sdkid]

Look at the graphs.





It would appear the Spike seen over the last 14 days is "different" somehow...maybe?
Comparing the two charts across April and half way through May, it would seem that a significant uptick in deaths is overdue.

 

[Frankenscript]

Look at the graphs.

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It would appear the Spike seen over the last 14 days is "different" somehow...maybe?
Comparing the two charts across April and half way through May, it would seem that a significant uptick in deaths is overdue.

The hospitalization surge has begun over the last week or two in many states; the death spike in those places would be expected to start in another week or so. Looking at individual states might give a better picture; when looking at US as a whole right now you are seeing a mix of many states coming down from their (initial) peak such as Maryland for example (I watch it closely due to my dad being there):





Oops forgot to hit the moving average button. But you get the point... lots of places are seeing deaths and cases declining. Other places are increasing, and based on cases will probably see deaths tick up in the next two weeks:



Texas is an interesting story in their cases and deaths:

Cases are up 5x in the last couple weeks and hospitals are filling up:



Deaths are just starting to tick up again:



In two weeks I expect a sad story.

Something to remember is that many places had insufficient testing through April, so comparing curve shapes/delays between cases and deaths may not be that informative since different subsets of the population were tested say on April 1 versus July 1, based on symptoms etc.

We are doing a better job protecting our most at risk these days, so the average severity of a an infection or a diagnosed case is lower now than two months ago, but still probably between 0.5 and 1.0 deaths per 1000 infections seems to be going on. So Texas' 7.5k cases yesterday probably translates to somewhere from 3-5 deaths over the next few weeks :-(

Also keep in mind that when a death happens on average it takes several days to get recorded (on average, many are same day, some two weeks later).

We are in for a rough summer.

 

[bigredfish]

Odd I know, but I actually sorta agree with @Frankenscript here. I beleive the next 3-4 weeks (end of July) will tell us a lot. I would expect deaths to increase approx 3-4 weeks after the case peaks. Between better understandng of what works and what doesnt, and younger demo's getting it, we may get lucky and the death numbers may be subdued, hope so.

 

[mat200]

Re: Deaths...

Also remember the doctors are learning how to reduce deaths... lots of good information is being shared.

Of course, the best way is not to get this bugger.

First 5min of this Video Dr John Campbell discussed WHO stating "Six months ago, none of us could have imagined how our world - and our lives - would be thrown into turmoil by this new virus" - WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual briefing.

Well worth watching:

My take away: The world got thrown under the bus with this one on purpose. Big geopolitical game.. and Tedros was a key player.

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[Frankenscript]

Something @bigredfish said is super important. The younger demographics of many of the spikes will result in lower death rates initially since they are (broadly speaking) biased toward being 20-30 something barhoppers and partygoers. These folks might get it and go through weeks of hell and have permanent or long term issues from COVID-19 but mostly they won't die from it. The problem is that they will take it home and infect family, and take it to work and infect coworkers/customers, etc.

So the initial spike in cases afew weeks or a month later will result in a secondary spike of folks of all walks of life that those folks gave it to. This second spike would be expected to have a more typical death rate.

So, this could also blur any coupling of death rate with case spike.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

 

[bigredfish]

Good point

 

[Oceanslider]

"It did not have to be this way"

From Peak Prosperity today's video ( Tue 6/30/2020 ):


View attachment 65186

Well we see a peak and subsiding that would be indication that the "peaceful protests" did exacerbate the spread of the Whuan Virus?

 

[Frankenscript]

Well we see a peak and subsiding that would be indication that the "peaceful protests" did exacerbate the spread of the Whuan Virus?

Apparently not so much. Relatively little spread was reported attributable to the "lockdown protests" in April and early May. Folks like me were surprised. And relatively little (but not none at all) seems to be attributable to the protests following the George Floyd protests (some exceptions in LA county I read about). The bigger drivers by far appear to be bars/parties happening with lockdows easing and other big gatherings, all without much masking. Keep in mind, a relatively small fraction of people protested excessive force by police; a much bigger fraction of them went out drinking when the bars opened. Consider this a commentary on the priorities of our society. For the record, I did neither. I stayed inside mostly and wore a mask when I went out for food and such.

Here's an article a week ago or so...

Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus

Erika Lautenbach, director of the Whatcom County Health Department in Washington state, says protests against police violence aren't among the catalysts for the spread of COVID-19.

www.npr.org

I know you guys don't like NPR but consider the implications: if large, mostly masked outdoor gatherings where people make an effort to distance don't seem to cause much of a spike, Trump can start his rallies again, at least the outdoor ones, as long as people wear masks. Just yesterday he said masks are a good thing right?

 

[Frankenscript]

Can't fix stupid, but you can kill it:

Students in Alabama Threw COVID Parties to See Who Would Get Infected First, Say Officials

Several college students in an Alabama city organized “COVID-19” parties as a contest to see who would get the virus first, officials said

time.com

 

[Arjun]

HOLY BAT/PIGMAN. We have another virus potentially making its way. Something tells me this whole thing orchestra and that they don't care about prioritizing hygiene. Ever tried Kentucky Fried Pig?


Is this Karma? Yum?

 

[Arjun]

Something is inherently wrong with people clustering together thinking this pandemic is all over. I'm not sure if its lack of maturity or simply that people have been brainwashed by years of advertising. Apparently, even New Jersey has seen an uptick in cases recently this week.

"It did not have to be this way"

From Peak Prosperity today's video ( Tue 6/30/2020 ):


View attachment 65186

 

[bigredfish]

A lot I think is simply the “I want it and I want it now and I dont want to sacrifice anything to get it, or be held responsible for my actions” mentality that western society has sunk to, and to a great extent liberalism has fostered.

 

[mat200]

ICU Doctor: Top 10 Things I learned Treating Coronavirus Patients | COVID-19
Jul 2, 2020
Doctor Mike Hansen

 

[sebastiantombs]

What's disturbing is how much is still unknown.

 

[Ssayer]

Alabama students throwing 'COVID parties' to see who gets infected: Officials

Rising infections prompt Gov. Kay Ivy to extend 'Safer at Home' orders.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Arjun]

Interesting analysis as to why HK saw fewer cases

 

[Parley]

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine Cut Death Rate Significantly in COVID-19 Patients, Henry Ford Health System Study Shows

DETROIT – Treatment with hydroxychloroquine cut the death rate significantly in sick patients hospitalized with COVID-19 – and without heart-related side-effects, according to a new study published by Henry Ford Health System.

In a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine. None of the patients had documented serious heart abnormalities; however, patients were monitored for a heart condition routinely pointed to as a reason to avoid the drug as a treatment for COVID-19.

The study was published today in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, the peer-reviewed, open-access online publication of the International Society of Infectious Diseases (ISID.org).

Patients treated with hydroxychloroquine at Henry Ford met specific protocol criteria as outlined by the hospital system’s Division of Infectious Diseases. The vast majority received the drug soon after admission; 82% within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours of admission. All patients in the study were 18 or over with a median age of 64 years; 51% were men and 56% African American.

“The findings have been highly analyzed and peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of Infectious Disease for Henry Ford Health System, who co-authored the study with Henry Ford epidemiologist Dr. Samia Arshad. “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring. Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug. And other studies are either not peer reviewed, have limited numbers of patients, different patient populations or other differences from our patients.”

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www.henryford.com

 

[bigredfish]

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.. thats not an approved part of the narrative..

Big Pharma is going to trot a whole bunch of experts onto the weekend TV shows pouring cold water on this. I mean, it's not $3000 per dose, how could it be effective?