Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[juliand]

correct me if I'm wrong...
29 million at 6.1% = 1,769,000 positive results
of that 5% end up dead = 88,450 deaths = .003% of the total number of people testing positive, end up dead.
and that is counting if people dying may have other related illness compounding the virus infection.
and for this the minions go broke, countless laws and fines being levied upon the minions, and Trump is blamed for this.

 

[mat200]

^^^^ this. I'm losing more and more of my caution towards this virus daily.

HI @Jessie.slimer

The threat of SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 are real.

The facts that much of the main stream media is backing Biden and the Democrats to push out Trump is also real.

There's a lot more going on that folks are not paying attention to, and that is that there is a major economic war going on between China and much of the rest of the world.
Some of what Trump is doing is related to that, and the main stream media is not addressing the global strategic issues.

Try to distance yourself from the main stream media, and look for those who have been getting this Pandemic right from the get go.

 

[juliand]

Sooooo true about china and the world they want to control... they are pulling out the hat trick for this virus.. Belt and Roads... bribery, both forced and welcomed... Major U.S. corporations working with them is our worst enemy.

 

[Parley]

Sooooo true about china and the world they want to control... they are pulling out the hat trick for this virus.. Belt and Roads... bribery, both forced and welcomed... Major U.S. corporations working with them is our worst enemy.

Exactly. I wonder how much Chinese money is flowing into this country to keep the rioting going.

 

[concord]

correct me if I'm wrong...
29 million at 6.1% = 1,769,000 positive results
of that 5% end up dead = 88,450 deaths = .003% of the total number of people testing positive, end up dead.
and that is counting if people dying may have other related illness compounding the virus infection.
and for this the minions go broke, countless laws and fines being levied upon the minions, and Trump is blamed for this.

I corrected my numbers after reading your post. By the time everyone is tested, the death % will be much lower in the end.

 

[Frankenscript]

The death rate from Covid-19 is flat. The testing for Covid-19 is expanding all the time.

Actually, we are learning how to treat it better over time. Things such as proning, and gradually improving medication regimens. Also, more of the positive cases are now in a younger population (read: bar hoppers) which is less at risk for death due to better overall health and the resiliency of youth. So, the death rate all things being equal is dropping a bit as measured by infection death rate (IFR). I don't have a good link handy for this but you can probably come up with several via googling for it. The effect is so far fairly small but every case is significant.

 

[Frankenscript]

Hmmmm. Maybe this might have something to do with it?

Not sure of your point. Hospitals are run based on typical caseload plus need for seasonal flu overflow. Normal numbers for ICU occupancy tend to be 50-70%. No profit in maintaining a lot of excess redundancy in the "cost centers" (providers, equipment). So, we only have just so much space for COVID-19 patients. Many hospitals have set up surge capacity routines but the Texas hospital cited in my post is in danger of running out of that in a couple weeks if trends continue. And remember, even if the area instituted a full lockdown today, case numbers and hospitalizations would continue to climb for 1-2 weeks as infected people gradually come down with symptoms. Texas is on the brink; I see they are starting to shut down bars down to stem the tide a bit. A good decision, if a bit late. Also I see the Supreme Court denied absentee ballots by mail for all there, so voter suppression will be rampant this fall. Cities are hardest hit by the disease and have the most difficulty dealing with polling issues, so this move will ensure lots of Dems don't get to cast a vote. Trump might actually win the state again!

 

[Jessie.slimer]

HI @Jessie.slimer

The threat of SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 are real.

The facts that much of the main stream media is backing Biden and the Democrats to push out Trump is also real.

There's a lot more going on that folks are not paying attention to, and that is that there is a major economic war going on between China and much of the rest of the world.
Some of what Trump is doing is related to that, and the main stream media is not addressing the global strategic issues.

Try to distance yourself from the main stream media, and look for those who have been getting this Pandemic right from the get go.

I hear what you are saying. I'm trying my best to believe what the pros are saying, but with all the flip flopping from the pros, its hard to. I have 2 family members who work in hospitals near Chicago, and I am told by them regularly about the staff cuts and low census shifts because they stopped taking a big chunk of other medical work in. The focus is on covid. At the same time, their icu is nowhere near capacity. Not even close. They have a big push to get as many positive cases confirmed as possible. Then I hear about how hospitals are getting paid additional if positive for covid. And cause of deaths are being listed as covid if there was a positive test, regardless of the actual cause of death.

Meanwhile, I personally know several people who are in the process of losing their businesses because we need to stay locked down. Businesses in towns where there are nearly no cases.

I was told by the pros that we need to lock down to prevent overburdening the hospitals. Well, that's not happening. We are strangling the economy, though. My patience is wearing thin.

A vaccine is not likely, or very far off. How long can we stand to be locked down? How many people are being forced into poverty, or worse?

 

[Jessie.slimer]

Not sure of your point.

I'm just saying that they were not at 100% capacity unless every icu bed was in use.
Setting some arbitrary percentage number for allocation of covid patients in the icu shouldn't mean that the icu is at capacity just because that number was met. What if they set that number at 5%? That would make getting icu at capacity really easy. What if it was a small hospital with only 10 icu beds? That hospital is at capacity with 3 covid patients assuming a 30% covid allocation. People use numbers to fit their narrative.

 

[mat200]

I hear what you are saying. I'm trying my best to believe what the pros are saying, but with all the flip flopping from the pros, its hard to. I have 2 family members who work in hospitals near Chicago, and I am told by them regularly about the staff cuts and low census shifts because they stopped taking a big chunk of other medical work in. The focus is on covid. At the same time, their icu is nowhere near capacity. Not even close. They have a big push to get as many positive cases confirmed as possible. Then I hear about how hospitals are getting paid additional if positive for covid. And cause of deaths are being listed as covid if there was a positive test, regardless of the actual cause of death.

Meanwhile, I personally know several people who are in the process of losing their businesses because we need to stay locked down. Businesses in towns where there are nearly no cases.

I was told by the pros that we need to lock down to prevent overburdening the hospitals. Well, that's not happening. We are strangling the economy, though. My patience is wearing thin.

A vaccine is not likely, or very far off. How long can we stand to be locked down? How many people are being forced into poverty, or worse?

Hi @Jessie.slimer

These I have found to be the best sources on youtube:
Peak Prosperity
Dr John Campbell
MedCram

Twitter: look for Jeremy Howard Masks4all - his twitter feed is full of references to folks who do data science and very little political games.

and..
What Happens Next?COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

an interactive guide

ncase.me

Honestly, too many games played by the political class and the mass media in the USA. Just a lot of bad advice...

Most dangerous areas: are indoors with people not wearing masks... more people coming in and out, more danger.

 

[Frankenscript]

I'm just saying that they were not at 100% capacity unless every icu bed was in use.
Setting some arbitrary percentage number for allocation of covid patients in the icu shouldn't mean that the icu is at capacity just because that number was met. What if they set that number at 5%? That would make getting icu at capacity really easy. What if it was a small hospital with only 10 icu beds? That hospital is at capacity with 3 covid patients assuming a 30% covid allocation. People use numbers to fit their narrative.

You've missed the point of that chart. It listed 72% of ICU beds filled with non-COVID patients (heart attacks, whatever) and 28% with COVID patients, but every bed was filled. They set up surge capacity by minimizing non-critical procedures and creating additional space using that freed-up part of the hospital, but the trends suggest they will run out of space within two weeks. So, this isn't some "we allocated some space for covid and it's filled but we actually have lots of beds open in case someone gets a heart attack." No, the ICU is full up. They are now using reclaimed space not originally intended or outfitted as an ICU. When that fills up, they will have to ship patients farther and farther away in hopes that those outlying hospitals might have room. It is typically worse in the urban areas than the rural ones, but since rural hospitals aren't used to big surges of patients, an outbreak (like, at a meat packing facility as high profile example) can result in many dire cases getting sent in a short time and overwhelm the hospital.

As another data point, Here's a story for you about Texas closing bars. I've used Fox so you won't assume it's a liberal conspiracy:

Texas orders bars closed, reduces restaurant capacity as coronavirus cases hit all-time high

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered all bars in the state closed for a second time Friday as Texas grapples with a record resurgence in coronavirus cases following a fast reopening last month.

www.foxnews.com

This is by the republican Gov. Abbott, shutting bars across the whole state. Not some "whiny Dem mayor claiming the sky is falling." Also restaurants will be going back to only 50% capacity (from 75%) next week. So, the situation varies from locale to locale, but it is real and even Republicans in charge of deep red states are taking it seriously. Here is an excerpt, and again keep in mind this is FOX reporting on Texas of all places:

"He began easing restrictions in May and accelerated openings amid protests from conservatives and Republican lawmakers across the country in an effort to get local governments to reopen their devastated economies.

“The doctors told us at the time, and told anyone who would listen, this will be a disaster. And it has been,” said Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, a Democrat who is the county’s top official. “Once again, the governor is slow to act. He is now being forced to do the things that we’ve been demanding that he do for the last month and a half.”

Abbott warned more protocols could be implemented if containment measures don't succeed.

“If we are unable to slow the spread over the next few weeks, then we will have to re-evaluate to the extent to which businesses are open," he said Wednesday. “Because if it's not contained in the next couple of weeks it will be completely out of control and Texas will have to ratchet back.”"

That last comment by Gov. Abbott, which I've bolded, should make the point. He's considering more of a shutdown if things don't turn around. This spike in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is real.

 

[Jessie.slimer]

In that case, I will concede that the icu was full, but likely because of an unusually high intake of non covid patients. Its hard to believe that 72% of their icu is regularly filled. If it is, then maybe they should have put together a contingency plan, knowing that covid has been here for 4+ months.

 

[Frankenscript]

I hear what you are saying. I'm trying my best to believe what the pros are saying, but with all the flip flopping from the pros, its hard to.

Doctors are scientists. At least the good ones are. They change their recommendations as they get new data and see hypotheses confirmed or fail. Somewhere on this forum, I posted a comparison of a cloth mask for COVID to chicken wire stopping bullets. At the time I was secure in my knowledge that virus particles are tiny and cloth masks do little to impede inhaling them. Then scientists reported lots of data showing that cloth masks are actually very good at stopping respiratory/oral droplets and greatly minimize spread of the virus, as long as infectious people wear masks, and for that to work given the number of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infectious people who had no clue they were carriers, everybody needs to mask. Also data came out showing that even simple masks can block incoming virus remarkably well, perhaps 30% or even 70% with a good filter layer, so they also protect the wearer, a little bit.

I have 2 family members who work in hospitals near Chicago, and I am told by them regularly about the staff cuts and low census shifts because they stopped taking a big chunk of other medical work in. The focus is on covid. At the same time, their icu is nowhere near capacity. Not even close. They have a big push to get as many positive cases confirmed as possible. Then I hear about how hospitals are getting paid additional if positive for covid.

The amount of incremental PPE needed to work with a COVID-positive patient is significant, hence increase $ for treating them. And I do feel bad for the many workers whose shifts were cut to let the hospital focus on COVID-19. There's no perfect answer, but hospitals are risky places for patients of any stripe to be in (my dad got Legionnaires disease from a health care facility in 2009 and nearly died), and at the moment nobody should be at a hospital if their life doesn't immediately depend on it.

And cause of deaths are being listed as covid if there was a positive test, regardless of the actual cause of death.

The furor over "dying with COVID versus OF COVID" is overblown; we're talking about a small number of the total deaths. You'll see various estimates but it's small. Meanwhile some docs I know are now looking back into a rash of heart attacks that happened in the early days of all this that now are believed to be COVID-19 related clotting issues; they weren't tested or reported as COVID at the time. Point being, we're in the fog of war right now and there will be some over counts and some undercounts but it doesn't change the story."

Meanwhile, I personally know several people who are in the process of losing their businesses because we need to stay locked down. Businesses in towns where there are nearly no cases.

I do too, and I grieve with them. I don't have a good answer and it feels hollow. If you have a better way to balance prosperity and health, I'm listening.

I was told by the pros that we need to lock down to prevent overburdening the hospitals. Well, that's not happening. We are strangling the economy, though. My patience is wearing thin.

If we hadn't locked down, the health system would have started collapsing on a national scale by mid April. We bent the curve over just in time. In Indiana, by less than a week. Based on what we now know, we had less than two doublings (~5 days) of infection before enough cases to swamp the state would have happened. It would have started in the cities and populous states first, but by end of April the entire country would have been worse than Italy was at its peak.

A vaccine is not likely, or very far off. How long can we stand to be locked down? How many people are being forced into poverty, or worse?

A vaccine is pretty likely, and there are several good shots on goal that will hit during late fall or the winter. No guarantee any of them will work well enough. I have safety concerns due to things being accelerated process wise (and, I work in clinical trials, so I take trial safety very personally). But I expect by a year from now we will have most of the population vaccinated with one vaccine or another here in the US.

 

[Frankenscript]

In that case, I will concede that the icu was full, but likely because of an unusually high intake of non covid patients. Its hard to believe that 72% of their icu is regularly filled. If it is, then maybe they should have put together a contingency plan, knowing that covid has been here for 4+ months.

You would think so, wouldn't you. (edit: I reread this and apologize if this sounds snarky, no snark intended at you! I agree with you it is prudent to have a contingency plan). They did put together a contingency plan, and because of that they are not turning away people right now, but there's only so much room, equipment, and staff to go around; they will exhaust the room within two weeks if trends continue, and it's unclear they will be able to maintain staffing at that capacity anyway.

72% occupancy is not unusual for an ICU; the bean counters would say it's a bit light. An unused bed is a waste of money.

Here's some data from a while ago (things have gotten tighter since then), but check out this review of ICU bed occupancy:


Source: ICU Occupancy and mechanical ventilator use in the United States

 

[Jessie.slimer]

If you have a better way to balance prosperity and health, I'm listening.

As a complete layperson in the medical field, I don't. But my idea would be to allow all nearby empty hospitals to take the load off of busier hospitals. If a possible vaccine is a year away, does anyone really think the country can take another year of this? It sounds like the population will get this virus eventually, right? Why not maximize the hospitals and get this behind us as soon as possible? I may be way off base here, I don't know. Or is the plan to keep locked down until the vaccine is here?

 

[Frankenscript]

Well, the media is being deceptive by continuing to parrot headlines like "the rate of cases is increasing, the sky is falling..." etc, while depicting charts/numbers of "total cases" with captions that use the word "rate". The number of cases will always increase. It's a cumulative number! It would be far more educational and create a far more accurate impression for the viewers to see the daily/weekly case+death charts/numbers only.

It depends where you look, I guess. Mostly I read stories that talk about daily or weekly totals. I agree, the cumulative numbers only go up, and it's the rate of increase that matters. 26 states as of yesterday were now increasing in terms of daily rate, including Texas, so... "Houston, we have a problem."

The cumulative numbers are useless and are nothing but sensationalist clickbait. People die. Get over it! Honestly, I think many Americans have gotten numb to the constant, hopeless drone from the media. If they showed us actual "rate" charts instead, the feedback to the public would be far more useful. "Look, two weeks ago, we were doing quite well, the numbers went down, but now we're having another spike." But we never hear them say that! The numbers they share with us only ever increase.

I'm sure you could cite some stories that favor either side of this argument. What I'm reading now mostly is "there's a spike going on..." And again, it's daily rates these are based on. And the news isn't all doom and gloom, here's a hopeful article from earlier today:

A coronavirus vaccine is still months away, but an antibody treatment could be closer | CNN

Vaccines have gotten all the attention in the race to fight Covid-19, but there is a major push in the US to develop antibody therapies to treat coronavirus. There's so much of a push that some scientists think these treatments may be available this year, even before a vaccine.

www.cnn.com

Secondly, in many places, the number of "cases" is increasing more rapidly due to increased testing, not increased infection. The media portrays this as the "pandemic" getting severely worse, instead of accurately tempering those numbers with the information that part of the increase is due to our expanding awareness of the issue.

I consider this completely wrong. Yes, we're testing more and so we are seeing more (and the news reports this is the case). But we're also seeing significant increases in test positivity rates in many places, so it's that there's more virus out there than there used to be. These facts are being widely reported.

Florida's increase in COVID-19 cases is due to 'more virus,' not increased testing, doctor says

Pediatric infectious disease physician at Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital Dr. Juan Dumois said "the increased numbers now because there’s more virus going around," not because of an increase in testing.

www.fox13news.com

Excerpt (bold in excerpts added by me for emphasis):
While Governor Ron DeSantis said the spike is attached to more testing, Tampa Bay doctors said that is not the only factor.

“The increased tests in the state of Florida began in the middle of May. The increased numbers did not begin until two to three weeks later. If [the spike] was just due to increased numbers, we would have immediately seen an increased number of positive test results in the middle of May and that was not the case,” said Dr. Juan Dumois, a pediatric infectious disease physician at Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital. “So we are seeing the increased numbers now because there’s more virus going around.”

Here's an NPR article about the spike in younger adults seen in many places, and with discussion of the increase in testing:

Younger Adults Are Increasingly Testing Positive For The Coronavirus

In parts of the country, more people in their 20s and 30s are testing positive for the coronavirus. Experts say this is likely due to more testing and less adherence to distancing and mask guidelines.

www.npr.org

"Crowded beaches and bars at the nearby resort town is "pretty clear evidence" of why younger adults are the ones getting sick in his community, McCormick said. "This is relatively new, and I think it's because that segment of the population decided, 'OK, I'm free,' whereas the older group is thinking, 'Woah, wait a minute, I'm still in jeopardy.' "
Officials in one Texas county even link the spike in cases to young people floating in the river.
At the beginning of June, about 15% of Georgia's news cases were 18- to 29-year-olds. A few weeks later, that number jumped to 27%."

Another discussion focused on Florida numbers:

Florida coronavirus: 12% test positive as state sees record 4,049 new cases

Florida health officials on Saturday reported the largest single-day spike in coronavirus cases since the beginning of the pandemic.

www.wfla.com

Exerpt:

"The percent positivity for new cases – or the number of people who tested positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day – was 12% on Saturday. The total percent positive of all tests – including people who have been tested on multiple days – was 14%. State officials say a total of 29,545 people tested negative while 4,847 tests came back positive. "

THE TRUMP NARRATIVE THAT ALL THE FUSS IS DUE TO TOO MUCH TESTING IS FLAT OUT FICTION.

For example, while the number of cases has surged, the death rate in many places continues to fall or hold steady. We really should be focusing on COVID-19 hospitalizations—the current number of people in our hospitals for COVID-19 related treatment. This is the metric that really matters, and checking out the page you shared was educational.

Completely agree with you. Places that are doing well now include places that locked down tight like Michigan and Indiana, and places that suffered greatly like New York and instituted really strict measures going forward. But 26 states are seeing increased positive cases and increased hospitalization and death follows. We are seeing it in Texas, Florida, Arizona just to name a few.

My gripe with the media is their constant misrepresentation of the facts, creating false impressions in the minds of the average viewer. People like you and I who understand statistics and know how to cut through the all the noise can see what's happening, but many people cannot and are just "scared".
I know that last I looked, the total number of deaths/year for my state was lower than it was at this time last year. That hardly counts as a pandemic! A true "pandemic" would cause the total death rate to substantially increase; like double or triple. But it went down slightly. I also understand that my state isn't every state; for example, New York was hit particularly hard.

We agree on a lot of this. And it is true, that due to the lockdown we are seeing several months with lower than usual death rates for certain risk categories.

If, with modern medicine and sanitation and so on, we see a double or triple of the usual death rate, then I fear we are not long for this world. COVID-19 was the #1 cause of US deaths for several weeks, maybe a month, topping (just barely) either cancer or cardiovascular issues or diabetes, but even so certainly didn't make too much of a bump in the overall death rate.

 

[Frankenscript]

As a complete layperson in the medical field, I don't. But my idea would be to allow all nearby empty hospitals to take the load off of busier hospitals. If a possible vaccine is a year away, does anyone really think the country can take another year of this? It sounds like the population will get this virus eventually, right? Why not maximize the hospitals and get this behind us as soon as possible? I may be way off base here, I don't know. Or is the plan to keep locked down until the vaccine is here?

My last reply of the night; my wife must be tapping her foot waiting for me.

Hopefully most of us won't get this before the vaccines (intentional plural) are available. While many people don't have symptoms, and quite a few have minor ones, I've known enough people to go through three weeks of hell with it to know I don't want it, ever. I haven't lost anyone I know to it yet, but it's a nasty beast when you get a significant case, like about 10% of people do, even if they don't need hospitalization. For that slice of folks, it's a real harsh time. I don't want to play Chinese Roulette (grin!) with a 1:10 chance of a horrible weeks long illness and a significant chance of death at my age of 52.

The plan right now is that if everybody masks in public and adheres to reasonable distancing measures, we can stay open. The problem is folks in bars, crowded streets, touristy areas, and frankly "kids" like my adult neice/nephew who think they are invulnerable and won't mask up. I don't want to close down; we can't wait this out and we now know enough about this thing to combat it with relatively small economic impact going forward, if we all do our part.

Good night and Stay safe!

 

[Oceanslider]

Frankenscript revealing his age brought this to mind...

 

[Arjun]

And that comes to show how the media distorts everything. Instead of delivering the necessary information for the public to be in safe hands, the makes the public more vulnerable to this virus everyday. First they give you the good news, but then that rapidly escalates in more bad news. Bad News > Good News, therefore bad news is good news, right? Well, let's leave that for the general public to decide

This is only the beginning of what is to come,


How contradictory, right? Florida is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases, and the NBA still wants players to play under one roof at a resort in Orlando.

The main purpose of the fear mongering by the media is to try and make sure that President Trump is not reelected. They are using Covid-19 as an opportunity to do just that. That is why we do not always get the real low down on what is happening.

 

[Arjun]

Absolutely well said --> "it's like popping a cork and people over do it. "

Today global cases topped 10 million, the number almost feels like it escalated rather quickly. If I recall correctly, back in early May, the # of cases was about 5 million

When a state lifts restrictions, especially when locked down for so long, it's like popping a cork and people over do it. Wonder how all the BLM protests and riots will affect the numbers too. In any case, this website (covidusa.net) hosts stats for USA and every state, just substitute your state in the address or use the "view" button toward the bottom.

It shows the increasing testing and number of positive, death rate, etc. Keep hearing stories from families that member died from known issue, only to have the death cert say covid, so not sure how accurate the numbers are.

USA current stats: 29 Million tested, 6.1% positive, 5% death rate
After seeing @juliand remark below, I found my calculations are screwed up, so:

Correction: Approx. 29 million tested, 2.45 million positive (2.45/29 =~ 8%), 0.1249 million deaths (0.1249/2.45 =~ 5%).
covidusa.net/?state=North Carolina
covidusa.net/?state=Florida
covidusa.net/?=Texas