Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Surges As BLS Revises Payrolls For Every Month In 2023 Sharply Lower
Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Surges As BLS Revises Payrolls For Every Month In 2023 Sharply Lower | ZeroHedge
Ahead of today's payrolls report
consensus was already ugly enough, with some of the largest banks expecting a number well below expectations (JPM was at 125K, Citi at 130K, Goldman at 149K vs median consensus of 170K). And while moments ago we got a number which was at least nominally stronger than expected, the report in general was weak enough to suggest that - as we expected - the wheels are finally coming off the US labor market (as this week's JOLTS report strongly hinted).
With that preamble out of the way, moments ago Biden's BLS (Bureal Of Lies and Statistics) reported that in August, the US added 187K jobs, and beating the consensus estimate of 170K...
Superficially this would have meant an unchanged print from last month when the BLS also reported 187K jobs, however in keeping with recent trends that number was revised - drumroll - lower again, to 157K, meaning that
every single monthly payrolls print in 20-23 has been revised lower (see chart below), a 12-sigma probability and virtually impossible unless there was political pressure to massage the data higher initially and then revise it lower when nobody is looking.
But wait there's more: while July was revised down by 30K from +187,000 to +157,000,
June was revised even more, by 80,000, from +185,000 to +105,000, which means that a number that was originally reported as 209K has been reivsed 50% lower, to 105K and a collapse vs original expectations of 230K. Here, the BLS was proud to report that "with these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported."
In other words, we now wait for the August payrolls number to be revised sharply lower as well because that's how Biden's handlers roll.