Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[Sybertiger]

40, 000 dead in Wuhan?

Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure

Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535.

www.rfa.org

 

[IP_man]

If you like numbers, below are some sites:

• US Hospital Resource Use based on COVID-19. Both US and by State - IHME | COVID-19 Projections
• Worldometer, overall, by Country and for some, within each Country (e.g. by state within the US). To track exponential growth, view the logarithmic graphs. A good comparison of logarithmic graphs is S. Korea versus US. They provide links to their data sources. Coronavirus Update (Live): 768,363 Cases and 36,912 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Edits

Please note I'm citing the above sites for people who are interested in looking at the numbers. In particular the seriousness of the situation. Logarithmic graphs are great at showing large and small numbers on a single scale.

If you are unfamiliar with them, and there's interest, I can attach an Excel spreadsheet with 12 data samples. It compares a linear graph against a logarithmic graph of the same data.

 

[Arjun]

In the some states, the rate of hospitalization is going down due to one reason. People are beginning to take the issue much more seriously and are adhering to social distancing and stay-at-home orders. The less people go outside, the lower the risk of infection, and in-turn less hospitalizations.

But the problem will not simply disappear. There is still a chance where the number of cases can surge again. Its not a surprise to see that recovered people previously diagnosed with COVID-19 are showing up as positive again. Everyone's immune system varies. The idea of replicating monoclonal antibodies by removing an amount of plasma from recovered patients is actually a brilliant idea. Lets hope this treatment option works and is embraced by other countries' healthcare systems as well. In the meantime, hang on tight, we're all in this together.

 

[IP_man]

Its not a surprise to see that recovered people previously diagnosed with COVID-19 are showing up as positive again.

Hi Arjun,

From an NPR article[1]:

Could that second positive test mean a second round of infection? Virologists think it is unlikely that a COVID-19 patient could be re-infected so quickly after recovery but caution that it is too soon to know.

and

It is possible they were first given a false negative test result, which can happen if the swab used to collect samples of the virus misses bits of the virus. Dr. Li Wenliang, a whistleblowing doctor who later died of the virus himself in February, tested negative for the coronavirus several times before being accurately diagnosed.

References

1. Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive

 

[Sybertiger]

Hi Arjun,

From an NPR article[1]:



and



References

1. Mystery In Wuhan: Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive

Anyone see the report that up to 70% of the test kits donated by China to Europe are defective and showing false negative results?

 

[IP_man]

Anyone see the report that up to 70% of the test kits donated by China to Europe are defective and showing false negative results?

Hi,

Do you mean this article? [1] It states that "rapid test kits" are faulty. It is forcing the health workers in Taiwan "to rely on conventional laboratory tests." This article is relatively recent - March 25th, 2020.

There was an issue in the US with some of the original testing kits [2]. Note, this article is very old: Feb 12, 2020.

References

1. 80% of coronavirus test kits 'gifted'... | Taiwan News
2. Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States Are Flawed, C.D.C. Says

 

[Arjun]

Yes, at least from what I've come across on the extensive reported by WION News. They have an overwhelming number of videos right now released today ranging discussion from defective testing kits to defective medical equipment to reemerging cases of COVID-19 as well as riots breaking out in Wuhan
Herd Immunity be the ultimate resolution to this already extensive mess

fuQ it, here's the YouTube playlist to WION's Gravitas WION Gravitas

Italy is seeking reparations from China too. This could end up spiraling out of control.

Anyone see the report that up to 70% of the test kits donated by China to Europe are defective and showing false negative results?

 

[IP_man]

Herd Immunity be the ultimate resolution to this already extensive mess

For Herd Immunity to be effective, the percent of the population (herd.... moo! ... I have to say that) that must be immune is proportional to how contagious it is. This is a cool article[1].

References

1. Herd Immunity: How does it work? — Oxford Vaccine Group

 

[IP_man]

Attached is the latest US logarithmic death graph[1]. As you can see, deaths are still growing exponentially.



If you're not familiar with logarithmic graphs, attached is an Excel spreadsheet I created to illustrate the difference between a linear and a logarithmic graph (base 10). If you don't want to download the Excel spreadsheet, below is an image with annotations of what's going on:



References

1. United States Coronavirus: 158,571 Cases and 2,938 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[Frankenscript]

Thanks @IP_man for the excellent documentation.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

 

[Arjun]

Business and police like 'fever detection' cameras. Experts say they don't work.

"I have many customers approach and say, 'Wow, this is a good thing you do,' and some customers are excited to get their temp taken," one business owner said.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[MR2]

anyone able to find the article that was saying a huge number of Alipay or social ID accounts were deleted this month?

 

[CCTVCam]

Some of y'all look like you have a fever...gonna have to take precautions.

View attachment 58364

The worrying thing is, a lot of face masks are made in China......

 

[Sybertiger]

The worrying thing is, a lot of face masks are made in China......

 

[Sybertiger]

Hi,

Do you mean this article? [1] It states that "rapid test kits" are faulty. It is forcing the health workers in Taiwan "to rely on conventional laboratory tests." This article is relatively recent - March 25th, 2020.

There was an issue in the US with some of the original testing kits [2]. Note, this article is very old: Feb 12, 2020.

References

1. 80% of coronavirus test kits 'gifted'... | Taiwan News
2. Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States Are Flawed, C.D.C. Says

Does the "thought" count?

 

[Arjun]

Welcome to Globalization. We are "need" each other. We depend on other countries and they depend on US. Although, this pandemic may enable countries to reconsider their manufacturing logistics. Short on ventilators? Well, that's subjective and could have been avoided to begin with. Bill Gates has been warning us of an impending pandemic. He's one of many "experts," they say.

The worrying thing is, a lot of face masks are made in China......

 

[IP_man]

Does the "thought" count?

... that was literally an LOL! Thank you.

-pablo

 

[Jessie.slimer]

An interesting article on herd immunity

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

It's hard to predict things in a pandemic.

www.sciencealert.com

 

[Arjun]

Not to be picky, but the article states that COVID-19 has an R0 of about 3, which suggests its closer to 3. However, others report 2-2.5 (about 2.2 which is closer to 2)
But the article does say as research is rapidly becoming more prevalent, the numbers are changing, so I can't really argue at this point, but I tried (almost contradicted myself there, haha )

I still like this article, can't get to reliant over what the majority say regarding herd immunity. Chances are, it may not work, but more needs to be done in respect to computer modelling.

Will Watson will save us?

An interesting article on herd immunity

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

It's hard to predict things in a pandemic.

www.sciencealert.com

 

[Q™]

@Sybertiger is modeling such responsible American behavior he convinced me to get on-board.