Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
I wasn't referring to politics here (surprising, I know). I meant they will let us live our lives like free Americans after the election. Hopefully that is the final goalpost.
Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?
- Thread starter erkme73
- Start date
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Actually, Mr Trump and most Republicans have wanted reopening and renormalizing of the economy for quite some time now, but that does not fit with the scorched earth narrative running up to the election that others are pushing.
I say those who are against reopening at this point own this shit.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
The economy is coming back regardless. You can't crush America, even though they are trying.
Armed&Overclocked
Pulling my weight
re-opening too soon is more scorched earth that staying locked down. The U.S hasn't taken covid nearly as seriously with its lock downs and mask usage as other countries and our current case load is the result of it.
here in Virginia we re-opened too soon, and locally started having huge surges in cases even though during most of the outbreak our local numbers were pretty low given the population size/density. Once cases started to surge we went from phase 3 back to phase 2, and have only recently been allowed to go back into phase three.
This has occurred all over the country as places opened much too soon; to include school systems that have resumed in-person lectures.
Also dont forget that its true the GOP, and Trump, have wanted to normalize the economy for some time, they were calling for re-openings at the very height of the pandemic when testing, PPE, and available ventilators were all in short supply. Frankly they painted themselves into a corner by tying their election performance to the performance of the economy.
here in Virginia we re-opened too soon, and locally started having huge surges in cases even though during most of the outbreak our local numbers were pretty low given the population size/density. Once cases started to surge we went from phase 3 back to phase 2, and have only recently been allowed to go back into phase three.
This has occurred all over the country as places opened much too soon; to include school systems that have resumed in-person lectures.
Also dont forget that its true the GOP, and Trump, have wanted to normalize the economy for some time, they were calling for re-openings at the very height of the pandemic when testing, PPE, and available ventilators were all in short supply. Frankly they painted themselves into a corner by tying their election performance to the performance of the economy.
Frankenscript
Known around here
- Dec 21, 2017
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So how did reopening and normalizing work for Texas? Or Arizona? Georgia? Florida?
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Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Locking down does not cure anything. The virus ripped through the large LOCKED DOWN cities already. Most have been infected and recovered. Now the numbers are low (flattened curve). Everyone is likely to get it. Lock down the elderly and most vulnerable, sure, until herd immunity takes over. Im sure you will show me a bunch of fancy charts and graphs. The fact remains: even the experts DO NOT know who has been infected already. We are pinning all hopes on the world's fastest vaccine coming out. Sure. Good luck with that.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Yes, the virus is waiting there. Locking down does not make it go away, it just prolongs the inevitable.
Obviously Australia is a totally different beast to the US. Australia got onto it pretty quick so the numbers never rose to US levels, but Australia has been pretty full-on with our lockdowns and its working.
One of the states, Victoria, had a hotel quarantine breach which caused that second wave. That state is locked down hard.
Cant leave the house unless its for 2 hours exercise, only essential jobs are allowed to work. Curfew at 8pm.
Of course, people complain about freedoms, that the state premier is a dictator etc..
About 75% of people agree with a temporary lockdown since we are very close to seeing the other side of it and returning back to a new "Covid normal".
The other states have been mostly Covid free (a few cases pop up here and there) and life is mostly normal there since the first wave.
Again, Australia is obviously very different to the US so you cant compare apples to apples. But lockdowns are working, at least in Australia.
One of the states, Victoria, had a hotel quarantine breach which caused that second wave. That state is locked down hard.
Cant leave the house unless its for 2 hours exercise, only essential jobs are allowed to work. Curfew at 8pm.
Of course, people complain about freedoms, that the state premier is a dictator etc..
About 75% of people agree with a temporary lockdown since we are very close to seeing the other side of it and returning back to a new "Covid normal".
The other states have been mostly Covid free (a few cases pop up here and there) and life is mostly normal there since the first wave.
Again, Australia is obviously very different to the US so you cant compare apples to apples. But lockdowns are working, at least in Australia.
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Armed&Overclocked
Pulling my weight
good info, and good on ya for pointing out there are indeed differences between the two country. i think under the best handled circumstances we (USA) were always going to have a rough time.
beepsilver
Getting comfortable
I wonder how the Australian suicide rate correlates to the lockdowns there.
bigredfish
Known around here
Biggest by 10x economy vs 13th
Even some thinking Dems have admitted that bringing the worlds largest economy to a grinding halt has much bigger implications than most realize. Go 3 days with Amazon, wallyworld and your local grocery store bring well stocked and the rioting in Portland would look like a picnic.
The long term implications of what we did do have yet to be felt really or sorted out. Unemployment and business closings are crazy and just now starting to be understood. Most will not come back.(forget the market, that was funny money chasing funny money and won’t end well)
I’m just saying that a tighter, stricter and longer term shutdown could just result in something none of us want. This was always and still is a balancing act between health of the individual and health of the country. I don’t know the answer, and there is no playbook. I’m damn glad I didn’t have to make the call and am fortunate to be close enough to retirement age with next to no debt to be able to ride it out better than some, not as well as others.
Even some thinking Dems have admitted that bringing the worlds largest economy to a grinding halt has much bigger implications than most realize. Go 3 days with Amazon, wallyworld and your local grocery store bring well stocked and the rioting in Portland would look like a picnic.
The long term implications of what we did do have yet to be felt really or sorted out. Unemployment and business closings are crazy and just now starting to be understood. Most will not come back.(forget the market, that was funny money chasing funny money and won’t end well)
I’m just saying that a tighter, stricter and longer term shutdown could just result in something none of us want. This was always and still is a balancing act between health of the individual and health of the country. I don’t know the answer, and there is no playbook. I’m damn glad I didn’t have to make the call and am fortunate to be close enough to retirement age with next to no debt to be able to ride it out better than some, not as well as others.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
What happens when its time to come out of lockdown and the virus is still there? Kick the goalpost down the road again. Another 6 months? Year?
How many people have have already had the virus and have immunity? I'd love to see that graph or data.
How many people have have already had the virus and have immunity? I'd love to see that graph or data.
sebastiantombs
Known around here
You'll never see that kind of graph or, probably, even data. I don't think it's actually being accurately tracked and accurately determining those numbers is next to impossible. Then, add in the politics of it, no one would want to admit that things are actually progressing fairly normally for a pandemic and the numbers would favor one side or the other, and no one wants to talk about that. It's like the number of people recovered is never mentioned, only the number of deaths.
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Parley
Known around here
That is the damn truth. If President Trump gets reelected you can expect all hell to break loose on the left. I would say prepare yourselves. Stock up on water, food, gasoline and ammo if you have not already. It looks like a lot of the fires on the West Coast have been set by arsonists. Arrests have been made.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Apparently calls to helplines is way up. It's gotta have an impact on people. But apparently coroners data doesn't show an increase in actual suicides.
The other states arent quite what you would call a lockdown, but there are restrictions on large gatherings and such. They are having very few outbreaks.
This is a timeline of what Australia did in the first 50 days if anyone is curious.
Its just Victoria that had to lock down hard due to quarantine breach from overseas passengers.
So we are already seeing what would happen with no lockdowns, since lots of restrictions have eased.
26,000 Australians have had it cumulatively.
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sebastiantombs
Known around here
They're not going down fast enough? Nothing will satisfy the doomsdayers with this thing. Ventilators were a hair on fire moment until it turned out there were enough. PPE, the same thing. (and the short supplies were thanks to the previous administrations, not this one). Travel bans were too early, until they were too late. The whole thing is a pile of crap that just keeps steaming and stinking with second guessing and Monday morning quarter backing.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
That's my whole point. Nobody knows shit about this virus, yet they have the gall to preach as to what is best. I stopped drinking the Kool-aid a couple months ago when I realized things were not adding up.
Armed&Overclocked
Pulling my weight
Numbers are going down as states have started taking it more seriously, to include actually enforcing their restrictions. Like here in Virginia actually pulling business licenses that weren't complying with masks mandates.
It also helps that those in charge started realizing large gatherings around holidays usually resulted in spikes and planned accordingly. We were trending down until memorial day, and then boom that's when our numbers started going up. Doesn't help that we are a typical summer tourist destination.
As far as who has already had it; i don't know if we will ever really know outside of those with confirmed cases. right now all of the anti-body tests that are available in the US are utter garbage, and even if they accurately say someone has anti-bodies there isn't a way to confer if the presence of some anti-bodies means immunity.
We also don't know how long those anti-bodies will remain in the system, especially if it was for someone who only had a slight immune response.
we've learned a lot about this virus, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions, and new questions arising as old ones get put to rest. in a year or two this whole mess will make for an excellent case study and i hope like hell the gov't actually learns from its lessons, but i am doubtful that will be the case.
It also helps that those in charge started realizing large gatherings around holidays usually resulted in spikes and planned accordingly. We were trending down until memorial day, and then boom that's when our numbers started going up. Doesn't help that we are a typical summer tourist destination.
As far as who has already had it; i don't know if we will ever really know outside of those with confirmed cases. right now all of the anti-body tests that are available in the US are utter garbage, and even if they accurately say someone has anti-bodies there isn't a way to confer if the presence of some anti-bodies means immunity.
We also don't know how long those anti-bodies will remain in the system, especially if it was for someone who only had a slight immune response.
we've learned a lot about this virus, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions, and new questions arising as old ones get put to rest. in a year or two this whole mess will make for an excellent case study and i hope like hell the gov't actually learns from its lessons, but i am doubtful that will be the case.
Frankenscript
Known around here
- Dec 21, 2017
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My my, sebastiantombs, aren't we cynical today?
Actually guys, this is something that is important to study and various initiatives are doing just that. Here is one of them, based in Indiana, which I've posted here before but will refresh your memories and highlight it for those that didn't see it before:
COVID-19 Prevalence Study: COVID-19: Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health: IUPUI
In partnership with ISDH and the governor's office, the IU Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health has launched a year-long study of COVID-19 in Indiana.
fsph.iupui.edu
The initiative will collect data on active infections of randomly selected participants via PCR (which notably often remains positive for a week or more after being actively infectious) as well as data on past infection via antibody tests (which are getting better over time).
The study was designed to work in four waves. Data is available for the first wave, with sampling dates in late April, at the height of the first wave. You can dig through the data and reports, but here's the TL/DR for you. Based on the random sampling, in late April just shy of 3% of the Indiana population age >12 were considered to have had had COVID-19 infections, which was about 10x the number of documented cases in the state at that time. Of these infections, about 44% were asymptomatic. Overall IFR (infection death rate) of about 0.6%, which is ~6 times seasonal flu IFR for the whole population. Hopefully the next wave of data will be available soon; I think they did sampling again over the summer. Other studies I've heard of were in this 10x infections-to-cases ballpark.
OK, so, early on, when testing was hard to come by, 10X as many people had had infections as were documented as cases. So, you can use that as a high water mark. Tests are much easier to come by now (though, getting results in a useful time frame still often eludes us...) so it makes sense that as testing became more available, the ratio of infections to cases would have come down significantly, since pretty much anyone who gets a sniffle now is tested before they can return to work/school etc.. Of course since >40% of infections are asymptomatic, a lot of these people won't have reason to get tested. So the current minimum ratio between infections and cases is probably no lower than 6x. Let's split the difference and say as a rule of thumb, since the beginning of this thing, there have been 8x as many infections as cases.
Total cases in the US, per Worldometers today, is just shy of 6.6M. So, using our 8x multiplier, that suggests a ballpark of 53M Americans who had infections out of 331M. About 16%. Disagree with my figures or assumptions? How about a window "more than 10%, less than 20%" of Americans have been infected. For sure, the reality is somewhere in there.
Let's just say "less than 20%" for purposes of discussion. This is way too low to offer any significant herd immunity, but some sectors will break that trend: groups that were hard hit early on now have a fair amount of people with some degree of immunity working there... Critical point: meatpacking is working at good capacity and the bacon supply is plentiful. Repeat: bacon is plentiful.
However, natural immunity from coronavirus infections is believed to be fleeting. Sure, for a few months you're good. And after that you might get a less severe case due to lingering antibody protection, as long as you don't have a major risk factor going on (old, fat, cancer, heart disease). But this natural immunity tends to be much less powerful than vaccine-derived protection.
So we have been going on with this disease for 8 months and have less than a fifth of us infected. And the earliest infection are likely much less immune now than they were months ago... they could get it again, or at least will be vulnerable again soon enough. So Jessie is right, the virus is still there.
But getting infected isn't inevitable by any means. Mask up, minimize gatherings, work appropriately --like we're doing in Indiana for the most part--, minimize school density, and we can make it another 3-6 months to a vaccine. The only way we get to the other side is the vaccine. There are a bunch of them in the works, some using new technology and some with more tried and true methods, and I'm confident one or more of them will be ready for deployment in Q1 2021.
Recovered: As of today, 3.8M out of the 6.6M cases. Recovered is hard to measure as it's not always tracked, unlike deaths. However, something like 5-10% of COVID cases (cases, not infections) lead to lasting damage and problems (lung issues, clotting, heart issues). This is the great unremarked thing that's going on now. Lots of my doctor friends are strongly concerned about whether these impacts will be just for months, or permanent.