Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Parley

Known around here
Joined
Dec 19, 2015
Messages
5,654
Reaction score
16,151
Location
Cypress, California
It’s now looking like the lockdowns may have been a huge mistake

Were lockdowns a mistake? To that nagging question, the answer increasingly seems to be yes.

Certainly, they were a novelty. As novelist Lionel Shriver writes, “We’ve never before responded to a contagion by closing down whole countries.” As I’ve noted, the 1957-58 Asian flu killed between 70,000 and 116,000 Americans, between 0.04 percent and 0.07 percent of the nation’s population. The 1968-70 Hong Kong flu killed about 100,000, 0.05 percent of the population.

The US coronavirus death toll of 186,000 is 0.055 percent of the current population. It will go higher, but it’s about the same magnitude as those two flus, and it has been less deadly to those under 65 than the flus were. Yet there were no statewide lockdowns; no massive school closings; no closings of office buildings and factories, restaurants and museums. No one considered shutting down Woodstock.

Why are attitudes so different today? Perhaps we have greater confidence in government’s effectiveness. If public policy can affect climate change, it can stamp out a virus.

Plus, we’re much more risk-averse. Children aren’t allowed to walk to school; jungle gyms have vanished from playgrounds; college students are shielded from microaggressions. We have a “safetyism mindset,” as Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff write in “The Coddling of the American Mind,” under which “many aspects of students’ lives needed to be carefully regulated by adults.”

 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
It’s now looking like the lockdowns may have been a huge mistake

Were lockdowns a mistake? To that nagging question, the answer increasingly seems to be yes.

Certainly, they were a novelty. As novelist Lionel Shriver writes, “We’ve never before responded to a contagion by closing down whole countries.” As I’ve noted, the 1957-58 Asian flu killed between 70,000 and 116,000 Americans, between 0.04 percent and 0.07 percent of the nation’s population. The 1968-70 Hong Kong flu killed about 100,000, 0.05 percent of the population.

The US coronavirus death toll of 186,000 is 0.055 percent of the current population. It will go higher, but it’s about the same magnitude as those two flus, and it has been less deadly to those under 65 than the flus were. Yet there were no statewide lockdowns; no massive school closings; no closings of office buildings and factories, restaurants and museums. No one considered shutting down Woodstock.

Why are attitudes so different today? Perhaps we have greater confidence in government’s effectiveness. If public policy can affect climate change, it can stamp out a virus.

Plus, we’re much more risk-averse. Children aren’t allowed to walk to school; jungle gyms have vanished from playgrounds; college students are shielded from microaggressions. We have a “safetyism mindset,” as Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff write in “The Coddling of the American Mind,” under which “many aspects of students’ lives needed to be carefully regulated by adults.”

The Ny Post article quoted is blatantly fallacious. It is comparing death rates for prior epidemics where no special lockdown procedures were in place with a similar death rate for COVID-19 after we took extreme measures to hold the death rate down.

Also medical care has improved over the years; those older epidemics wouldn't have been as bad if they happened today.

A proper comparison would need to be between those older epidemics, with what our death rate would have been had we not taken the measures we did such as lockdowns.

This is difficult to project and for sure subjective.

The best model for it with real data is to look at Sweden versus Norway and Finland. Sweden was slow to react and many measures were voluntary; the Swedish death rate per capita was 10x their nearly identical way of life neighbors who locked faster and harder.

Each of us should consider where to draw the line. Would you prefer a non lockdown US with 10x the deaths we had? Or even a 2x death rate?

Personally I wish we had done a stricter lockdown, with fewer exceptions and greater uniformity. Countries that did this got through the crisis faster, with fewer deaths, and less economic impact.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Parley

Known around here
Joined
Dec 19, 2015
Messages
5,654
Reaction score
16,151
Location
Cypress, California
The Ny Post article quoted is blatantly fallacious. It is comparing death rates for prior epidemics where no special lockdown procedures were in place with a similar death rate for COVID-19 after we took extreme measures to hold the death rate down.

Also medical care has improved over the years; those older epidemics wouldn't have been as bad if they happened today.

A proper comparison would need to be between those older epidemics, with what our death rate would have been had we not taken the measures we did such as lockdowns.

This is difficult to project and for sure subjective.

The best model for it with real data is to look at Sweden versus Norway and Finland. Sweden was slow to react and many measures were voluntary; the Swedish death rate per capita was 10x their nearly identical way of life neighbors who locked faster and harder.

Each of us should consider where to draw the line. Would you prefer a non lockdown US with 10x the deaths we had? Or even a 2x death rate?

Personally I wish we had done a stricter lockdown, with fewer exceptions and greater uniformity. Countries that did this got through the crisis faster, with fewer deaths, and less economic impact.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
You are entitled to your opinion. Mine is that we should have concentrated on the elderly and people with underlying conditions. Some Democrat governors failed to do so and drove up the mortality rate.
 

Parley

Known around here
Joined
Dec 19, 2015
Messages
5,654
Reaction score
16,151
Location
Cypress, California
Just confirms my thoughts on how much politics is involved in Covid-19.

BREAKING: L.A. Health Chief EXPOSED on Audio: Says Schools Will Reopen ‘AFTER THE ELECTION’

The manipulations of Democrats to use the COVID-19 issue for political gain are being exposed, one by one. As outraged citizens demand schools, salons, gyms and other businesses re-open, Democrats keep citing the "danger" and "risk" of doing so.

But the public has seen the lies exposed in recent weeks. They seethed as Nancy Pelosi got her hair done while all other S.F. salons were shuttered by law. And private gym owners were enraged when they found out that gyms in California government buildings have been open for months, while theirs have been kept shut tight.

Now on Wednesday, stunning audio surfaced of Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer saying that K-12 schools in America’s largest county likely will not open until after the November election.

Not based on "health," or "safety." but pure politics to influence local, congressional and presidential politics.

KFI News radio reporter Steve Gregory said he received a partial audio recording of a conference call between Dr. Ferrer and “a collection of school nurses, school administrators, other education and medical professionals.”

During that discussion, Ferrer indicated that she does not expect schools to reopen before the November election...

 

Arjun

Known around here
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
9,132
Reaction score
11,190
Location
USA
Meanwhile the UK is planning to mandate and enforce 6 ft social distancing everywhere
 

BobRegnar

Getting comfortable
Joined
Aug 1, 2018
Messages
269
Reaction score
1,286
Location
Pineland
No way to know the results of stronger or weaker lockdowns. There could have been fewer deaths or more deaths with any other actions taken.

Is more sunshine, fresh air and exercise inviting death now?

Why not put an end to traffic deaths by "locking down" motor vehicles, too, while we're at putting the state above the person?

I know, "it's all to protect the people." The banner of every totalitarian wannabe.
 

tigerwillow1

Known around here
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
3,863
Reaction score
8,560
Location
USA, Oregon
Why not put an end to traffic deaths by "locking down" motor vehicles, too, while we're at putting the state above the person?
I have little doubt the dems would do that if it would give them any political advantage. An inappropriate looking statement in the covid thread because it has nothing to do with covid. It's darn hard to keep the disease and politics separate when it's a political disease.
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Just confirms my thoughts on how much politics is involved in Covid-19.

BREAKING: L.A. Health Chief EXPOSED on Audio: Says Schools Will Reopen ‘AFTER THE ELECTION’

The manipulations of Democrats to use the COVID-19 issue for political gain are being exposed, one by one. As outraged citizens demand schools, salons, gyms and other businesses re-open, Democrats keep citing the "danger" and "risk" of doing so.

But the public has seen the lies exposed in recent weeks. They seethed as Nancy Pelosi got her hair done while all other S.F. salons were shuttered by law. And private gym owners were enraged when they found out that gyms in California government buildings have been open for months, while theirs have been kept shut tight.

Now on Wednesday, stunning audio surfaced of Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer saying that K-12 schools in America’s largest county likely will not open until after the November election.

Not based on "health," or "safety." but pure politics to influence local, congressional and presidential politics.

KFI News radio reporter Steve Gregory said he received a partial audio recording of a conference call between Dr. Ferrer and “a collection of school nurses, school administrators, other education and medical professionals.”

During that discussion, Ferrer indicated that she does not expect schools to reopen before the November election...

After listening to the recording of the woman and the talk show guys, I think she just said "election" as a generally recognized date marker. Before you jump on me about this, what political motive does it serve to keep things remote? Not having the option to send kids to school pisses off people on both sides of the political spectrum. Remember, there are a lot of relatively poor, relatively democratic people who live in OC. If anything, this school thing helps local republicans on the ticket.

OVerall I think the story is hyper sensationalized compared to what was actually there. It's not "stunning audio" by any means.

Now, the Woodward book revelations and political fallout coming from it... that's stunning stuff.
 

Parley

Known around here
Joined
Dec 19, 2015
Messages
5,654
Reaction score
16,151
Location
Cypress, California
After listening to the recording of the woman and the talk show guys, I think she just said "election" as a generally recognized date marker. Before you jump on me about this, what political motive does it serve to keep things remote? Not having the option to send kids to school pisses off people on both sides of the political spectrum. Remember, there are a lot of relatively poor, relatively democratic people who live in OC. If anything, this school thing helps local republicans on the ticket.

OVerall I think the story is hyper sensationalized compared to what was actually there. It's not "stunning audio" by any means.

Now, the Woodward book revelations and political fallout coming from it... that's stunning stuff.
Nothing stunning in the Woodward book at all. I just find it interesting that the lady just happened to pick after the election for the kids to return to school. What is so magical about that date if not politics.
 

BobRegnar

Getting comfortable
Joined
Aug 1, 2018
Messages
269
Reaction score
1,286
Location
Pineland
what political motive does it serve to keep things remote?
If schools opened Trump could use that in his campaign as progress toward normal. Dems can't have that.

Just like a vaccine for covid. It can't come too fast or Trump might get some credit for his efforts to help Americans. The dems and the MSM just won't have it.

Don't forget the scorched earth rule of the dems. We rule it or we ruin it.
 

BobRegnar

Getting comfortable
Joined
Aug 1, 2018
Messages
269
Reaction score
1,286
Location
Pineland
Have fun with this one guys:


Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

He's protesting being kept out of school, not getting an education and having his future derailed by radical partisan school officials.

You're mocking him because he's not putting everything in his path on fire and endangering innocent lives like "real" BLM/Antifa "mostly peaceful" protesters?
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
If schools opened Trump could use that in his campaign as progress toward normal. Dems can't have that.

Just like a vaccine for covid. It can't come too fast or Trump might get some credit for his efforts to help Americans. The dems and the MSM just won't have it.

Don't forget the scorched earth rule of the dems. We rule it or we ruin it.
Regarding "return to normal," there won't be a return to normal until a large portion of the US population is vaccinated. This can be framed politically, but it's a reality however you look at it. For example, I'm not allowed to return to in-person work through the end of the year at a minimum because others that work in my same building are mission-critical and their jobs require on-site presence. Even with >70% of the site's workforce remote, we routinely get notices that someone onsite was just diagnosed with COVID-19 and a contact tracing effort goes on to isolate anyone potentially infected. I anticipate my remote status will maintain until I've been vaccinated (which probably requires two shots a month apart). Every in-person work event I had planned through Q1 2021 including conferences and the like has switched to virtual. Manwhile Schools are breeding grounds for COVID-19; the kids pass it around and bring it home to their families; the staff are also at high risk. Where I live many schools are experimenting with reduced density hybrid schedules; some are doing ok so far while other places have had to switch to virtual only. The only way out of this in the US is mass immunizations. Countries that took more aggressive measures than we did have had more success returning to something-like-normal.

And I think you are wrong about the scorched earth thing; the republicans in power are doing a pretty fair job of scorching everything they touch, from voting rights to common decency.

And about the NY high school student, I wasn't mocking him. I just brought him to your attention, figuring you guys would make him a folk hero or something like that. And he was endangering lives in lots of ways... density reduction is the best way to keep the schools open in person at all. He can protest this if he wishes; I support his right to do so, but he should do it outside school grounds. Because of him the school is looking to switch to all-virtual if he continues his on-site presence. That makes things worse for everyone.
 

Armed&Overclocked

Pulling my weight
Joined
Dec 18, 2019
Messages
95
Reaction score
133
Location
Virginia
there is nothing wrong with being suspicious of a vaccine that is released way too early (like in Russia). efficacy takes time and releasing a vaccine before the election would 100% be politically motivated. Personally i'd be dubious of any vaccine released before the super bowl. i'm not saying trump will force a pre-election release, but i won't be surprised either.

a rushed vaccine has the potential for adverse side effects that may not become apparent until much later. Also if its effectiveness doesn't live up to the hype it can lure people into a false sense of security where they think they are protected, but in reality are not. Kind of like how some women think their IUD will protect them from STDS, or others think that the presence of 911 is enough reason to not own a gun for self defense.
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Top