Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Armed&Overclocked

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There are deaths each year, not flu / COVID-related


Many of the numbers being reported in each state are not entirely factual; there have been numerous accounts of misreporting

2017 Data from the CDC

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
yes having poor health, or not taking care of your poor health can result in deaths.

when this year is over its going to be interesting on how covid will impact those numbers. For instance suicide might be higher, but traffic fatalities will be lower.
 

Frankenscript

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Right. The only way we'd know is if a truly scientific approach was taken, with a control group. Sweden seems to be doing well without lockdowns after their initial hit, but again, it's still too early to tell.
As I've said, repeatedly actually ( :) ), there is a way to look at this with a scientific approach with a control group.

Sweden took a late & light-handed approach. Sweden's per capita COVID-19 death rate is 579/million population.
Norway and Finland are NEARLY IDENTICAL to SWEDEN in terms of way of life, city/rural spread, population density, public vs private transportation, diet, obesity, medical systems... but these two countries locked down fast and hard. Their per capita death rates are 49 and 61, respectively. ~10X less than Sweden.

Thus, late/weak interventions give a dramatically worse result than early/strong interventions.


Why do people here keep thinking Sweden did well? They are basically Europe's nightmare scenario come true. They didn't get things together until pretty late when they realized they were doing poorly compared to their neighbors and switched things up.

The US did MORE than Sweden did initially, but LESS than Norway/Finland. We can't directly compare results in US to those Nordic countries because our ways of life and other risk factors (obesity etc.) are wildly different. So comparing our death rate with those from Sweden/Norway/Finland is invalid.

What we can take away from this is that the spread between a relatively weak hand and a strong hand on lockdown can be 10X. The US saved a lot of lives by what we did, and the R values correlate state by state showing relative impact of distancing that people actually did. Had we done more, more lives would have been saved. Had we done less... as @mcapeed said, 99.6% of Americans won't die from it (actually, he's off by a few tenths of a percent probably but we'll let it slide). But if we let it run its course and everyone gets infected, 0.4% is still 1.3M deaths.
 

bigredfish

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There are deaths each year, not flu / COVID-related


Many of the numbers being reported in each state are not entirely factual; there have been numerous accounts of misreporting

2017 Data from the CDC

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Right and the Wuflu raced to #3 in just 6 months. Give it a full year like those and it may be vying for #2 or #1 of all causes. That’s not insignificant.
 

Jessie.slimer

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Yes, they took a big smack right away. They have 10.3 million people. They have recorded 5,851 deaths to date from covid (again I am skeptical of reported covid death numbers). Their daily death rate has now slowed to one death per day and low positive test numbers. They might be done with this thing. Maybe everyone there has gotten it. Can someone do the math on this one for me?... 10.3M population with 5,851 deaths. No lockdowns.

Again, I'll concede its too early to tell. Who knows what will happen and how accurate the numbers are.
 

bigredfish

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As I've said, repeatedly actually ( :) ), there is a way to look at this with a scientific approach with a control group.

Sweden took a late & light-handed approach. Sweden's per capita COVID-19 death rate is 579/million population.
Norway and Finland are NEARLY IDENTICAL to SWEDEN in terms of way of life, city/rural spread, population density, public vs private transportation, diet, obesity, medical systems... but these two countries locked down fast and hard. Their per capita death rates are 49 and 61, respectively. ~10X less than Sweden.

Thus, late/weak interventions give a dramatically worse result than early/strong interventions.


Why do people here keep thinking Sweden did well? They are basically Europe's nightmare scenario come true. They didn't get things together until pretty late when they realized they were doing poorly compared to their neighbors and switched things up.

The US did MORE than Sweden did initially, but LESS than Norway/Finland. We can't directly compare results in US to those Nordic countries because our ways of life and other risk factors (obesity etc.) are wildly different. So comparing our death rate with those from Sweden/Norway/Finland is invalid.

What we can take away from this is that the spread between a relatively weak hand and a strong hand on lockdown can be 10X. The US saved a lot of lives by what we did, and the R values correlate state by state showing relative impact of distancing that people actually did. Had we done more, more lives would have been saved. Had we done less... as @mcapeed said, 99.6% of Americans won't die from it (actually, he's off by a few tenths of a percent probably but we'll let it slide). But if we let it run its course and everyone gets infected, 0.4% is still 1.3M deaths.

There I go agreeing with @Frankenscript again. I need a drink
 

Frankenscript

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Yes, they took a big smack right away. They have 10.3 million people. They have recorded 5,851 deaths to date from covid (again I am skeptical of reported covid death numbers). Their daily death rate has now slowed to one death per day and low positive test numbers. They might be done with this thing. Maybe everyone there has gotten it. Can someone do the math on this one for me?... 10.3M population with 5,851 deaths. No lockdowns.

Again, I'll concede its too early to tell. Who knows what will happen and how accurate the numbers are.
I gotta get back to work but see my prior post for the per capita death rates. Sweden 10x it's neighbors who locked down. And remember, "no lockdowns" meant that the government didn't impose them, but many measures eventually were taken by a population much more cooperative than us. So it wasn't some sort of free wheeling thing, at least by April when the crap hit the fan.

Oh, and I understand your distrust of counts, but Sweden and its neighbors would have used similar counting criteria. There's no getting away from the fact that Sweden's response was terrible. They are doing fine now because they are taking it seriously as a nation.

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Jessie.slimer

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Yes but they seem to be done and over. They probably all got it, while nearby countries are slowly spreading it around. Like I said, too early to tell. Once the other countries numbers bottom out, the deaths per capita can be compared.
 

Frankenscript

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Yes but they seem to be done and over. They probably all got it, while nearby countries are slowly spreading it around. Like I said, too early to tell. Once the other countries numbers bottom out, the deaths per capita can be compared.
No, only a small fraction of Swedes ever were infected. Positivity rates for both active and prior infections are low there. They had a big spike, changed course, government imposed strong guidance (more than a suggestion, less than a lockdown), people started taking it seriously, and they brought it under control.

It's likely that the fraction of people there who have been exposed is about half of what we have in the US (estimates range 15-20% here).


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Armed&Overclocked

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No, only a small fraction of Swedes ever were infected. Positivity rates for both active and prior infections are low there. They had a big spike, changed course, government imposed strong guidance (more than a suggestion, less than a lockdown), people started taking it seriously, and they brought it under control.

It's likely that the fraction of people there who have been exposed is about half of what we have in the US (estimates range 15-20% here).


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i am inclined to agree with this. Sweden did not experience the same lack of available tests that americans were faced with. anyone with an inkling that they may be infected was able to get tested without issue.
 

klapa

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The only statistic I go by presently are the number of hospitalizations as this is a statistic that is difficult to skew (inflate) and would logically seem to give the best "up to this week" picture.

In my state at least such hospitalizations are only allowed for tested actual serious cases.
 

Jessie.slimer

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No, only a small fraction of Swedes ever were infected. Positivity rates for both active and prior infections are low there. They had a big spike, changed course, government imposed strong guidance (more than a suggestion, less than a lockdown), people started taking it seriously, and they brought it under control.

It's likely that the fraction of people there who have been exposed is about half of what we have in the US (estimates range 15-20% here).


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So how are they having zero to 1 death per day, and only a dozen or so people in ICU?

Vastly different from us.
 

Jessie.slimer

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I still do not understand how they figure in the unknown positive cases that never sought treatment because they never had symptoms. If they sampled random groups of people and used that data as a generalization of the population, what were these people counted as? Never infected? Most of the population, per the experts, will never experience major symptoms. That translates into a low infection rate for the population. The numbers are skewed.
 

Armed&Overclocked

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So how are they having zero to 1 death per day, and only a dozen or so people in ICU?

Vastly different from us.
they eventually did start to lock things down and take it seriously and as a result they have flattened the curve.

Also swedish people have a lot fewer co-morbidity than the typical american, as well as generally have a healthier diet. So the deck isnt as stacked against them as they are with us here in the states.

keep in mind that the upside to having a single payer system is people tend to use and get stuff taken care of early on instead of waiting until they can afford to.
 

Jessie.slimer

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We had much higher per capita infections and deaths than them during the height of our lockdowns, which were stricter than their govt suggested actions or whatever you want to call it.

Our covid testing and treatment is free to patients thanks to the passage of FFCRA and CARES Act. In fact, hospitals are incentivized to treat covid here :wtf:

I'm not buying. They have one or less death per day now.
 
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Frankenscript

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So how are they having zero to 1 death per day, and only a dozen or so people in ICU?

Vastly different from us.
Well, keeping the diseased Americans out via travel bans is a good start. :rofl:

Once they took it seriously, they crushed it pretty much. Everyone the slightest bit sick got tested, with results back in time to do something about it. Everyone who was significantly exposed to those folks got tested. Contact tracing. Masks in public. The works. While there were small exceptions, as a people they did what it took once they realized they were in the crapper and fought their way out of it. No anti-mask protests. No COVID parties. No big group rallies (political, civil rights, or motorcycle events). No concerts. The list goes on, but they acted responsibly together, and they keep it down.

There's a threshold effect there. Once there are so few cases circulating, with everyone being vigilant, it's relatively easy to keep it down. They've got like 200 new cases/day in a population of 10M, right? So that's one new case per 50,000 people in the country each day. In the US it's like 1 new case in something like every 8000 people, or close to 6 times as much infection circulating. And in the US when we get tested it is usually 3, 6, or even 12 days before we get our results. In Sweden you get your results later that day or the next day for sure.

So, they are keeping their infection rate low. Infections are caught quickly because of the ease of testing and few restrictions on who can get tested. I tried to get tested in July when my wife was sick (turned out not to be COVID) but I was denied.

Combine low infection rate, rapid identification of cases, strong contact tracing without conspiracy theories, a relatively healthy population (low obesity in particular) to start with, and you've got a recipe for success.

However, there's also a chance of complacency: Norway and Finland who crushed the curve are seeing case counts creep back up following such summer holidays as they were able to take. Their numbers are trivial but we should watch to see if they come back down as the fall sets in.
 

Frankenscript

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I still do not understand how they figure in the unknown positive cases that never sought treatment because they never had symptoms. If they sampled random groups of people and used that data as a generalization of the population, what were these people counted as? Never infected? Most of the population, per the experts, will never experience major symptoms. That translates into a low infection rate for the population. The numbers are skewed.
Random sampling testing gives estimates of the ratio of infection to cases. It's imperfect, but is a good guideline, and lines up well with the local data they get from positivity rates for both infectious person testing. Also, when you gave blood taken for other reasons, depending on what was consented at the time, your blood sample may also go through serological testing to see if you were infected in the past. When I donated blood last week, I was told that the blood may be tested for past COVID-19 infection. I won't get that result, but in aggregate this body of data is useful to gauge what portion of the population had the disease at some point in the past, within the limits of the serology being used. Now, the population of blood donors is not generalizable to the whole population, but it's an indicator. Scale it up for people getting sampled for routine medical stuff and now you've got a database that's super useful. These people are not generally "identified" ; the data is looked at in aggregate, so the people who test seronegative don't need a label such as never infected.


This part I colored red in your statement is wrong
. About 40% of people infected will be asymptomatic, yes. And many of the rest will have minor symptoms and not report it so they won't become cases, yes (holding the case # down). BUT ALL THESE PEOPLE ARE INFECTIOUS and spread the disease, driving infections UP. Remember, cases are one thing (=diagnosis), infections are another (virus replicating in a body).

OK, done for the day, I'm now way behind at work. I'll check in tomorrow.
 

Jessie.slimer

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Once they took it seriously, they crushed it pretty much. Everyone the slightest bit sick got tested, with results back in time to do something about it. Everyone who was significantly exposed to those folks got tested. Contact tracing. Masks in public. The works. While there were small exceptions, as a people they did what it took once they realized they were in the crapper and fought their way out of it. No anti-mask protests. No COVID parties. No big group rallies (political, civil rights, or motorcycle events). No concerts. The list goes on, but they acted responsibly together, and they keep it down.

Combine low infection rate, rapid identification of cases, strong contact tracing without conspiracy theories, a relatively healthy population (low obesity in particular) to start with, and you've got a recipe for success.
Sounds logical, but why didn't this work in China or any of the other places with draconian lockdowns?
 

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If only one could rely on the numbers...

The CCP virus has been politicized beyond all reason from day one. The "numbers" have never been reliable beginning with the ridiculous modeling intended to bring panic and fear to the masses. And continues today with unreliable reporting based more on partisan interests than national health.

Finally a court rules Tom Wolf's lockdown in Pennsylvania is unconstitutional. It is hard to believe that so many Americans have put up with it for so long.
 

Armed&Overclocked

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Sounds logical, but why didn't this work in China or any of the other places with draconian lockdowns?
this is a guess on my part, but its well established that china suppressed information pretty early about covid and even retaliated against doctors trying to get the word out. Its possible a lot of infected people were able to slip through the cracks without knowing what they had.

Also while wuhan got locked down hard, eventually, the population density of china is pretty insane. If even a handful of infected people were able to make it out, it wouldnt take much for the virus to spread elsewhere.

sadly its hard to trust any information that came out of china during this time to include any of the officially released information.
 

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... and here's the story on ZE. (I know, I know @Frankenscript its all a Russian plot)
'Rogue' Chinese Virologist Joins Twitter, Publishes "Smoking Gun" Evidence COVID-19 Created In Lab

This is like the 10th or 12th group or individual scientist to propose/confirm this. It wasn't bat soup.
And just like that 24 hours later, the thought police at Twatter suspend the account of yet another scientist who doesnt agree with their uninformed, uneducated liberal management and user base.

Twitter Suspends Account Of Chinese Scientist Who Published Paper Alleging Covid Was Created In Wuhan Lab


Social media is corrupt and is corrupting the minds of millions. They're just too stupid to know it
 
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