He was thinking sometime around Easter which is April 12 and is about 3 weeks away. It would also be for certain areas and it would be phased in. Also state and local governments can over ride it. Obviously places like New York City would not be on the list.
The problem with the super optimistic timeline is that it is not based on any facts in evidence. We all want to be able to pack the Churches on Easter, but let's not consider it reasonable. This thing is ramping up. Rapidly. What is
just beginning in NYC is preparing to play out on the national scale. Who knows, NY might be one of the first places to ease restrictions, since they were one of the first epicenters. I've got doctor friends in lots of cities and they are starting to see trends that NYC saw 1.5-2 weeks ago in terms of prevalence of respiratory infection cases. Due to spotty testing and poorly available tests early on (and in many places now) looking at new cases per day isn't that useful, but looking at deaths per day is. This thing will come in waves, as each new epicenter fires up.
One of the best ways gamblers look at macroeconomics is to see what businesses are doing. Three weeks ago, every business I'm connected with wrote down April. A week or two ago, they wrote down May. June isn't looking good but we've got another two weeks to wait and see. From everything I've seen, I would place the likelihood that restrictions / lockdowns will continue full force through May. For me, June would be optimistic.
I have a trip with my family from Indiana to Maryland to visit my elderly father, in second half of July. I am starting to doubt it will happen.
Meanwhile, here's an interesting read about possible timelines this thing could follow. This is not a scientific data piece, it's a thought exploration of some scenarios:
The coronavirus outbreak may last for a year or two, but some elements of pre-pandemic life will likely be won back in the meantime.
www.theatlantic.com