Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Frankenscript said:
This is good and expected. Still a lot worse than flu, but better than earlier numbers.

But one note of caution: the term CFR means Case fatality rate which means only diagnosed cases can be included in the numbers. Asymptomatic or subclinical individuals --who wouldn't have reported it and become cases-- aren't factored into a CFR.

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Hi @Frankenscript

So working off the definition from the Dictionary of Epidemiology does not make fully clear.

The definition of the CFR in the Dictionary of Epidemiology states that it is “the proportion of cases of a specified condition that are fatal within a specified time”.

If we are working with only those clinically diagnosed with COVID-19 then the CFR will be significantly higher as not everyone will be probably diagnosed.

Hmmm.... so if I only test for COVID-19 those who go on ventilators I could get a CFR of 30-50% .. likewise if I do not test at all, then no one officially dies of COVID-19
 
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mat200 said:
Hi @Frankenscript

So working off the definition from the Dictionary of Epidemiology does not make fully clear.

The definition of the CFR in the Dictionary of Epidemiology states that it is “the proportion of cases of a specified condition that are fatal within a specified time”.

If we are working with only those clinically diagnosed with COVID-19 then the CFR will be significantly higher as not everyone will be probably diagnosed.

Hmmm.... so if I only test for COVID-19 those who go on ventilators I could get a CFR of 30-50% .. likewise if I do not test at all, then no one officially dies of COVID-19
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Pretty much. You could work sort of a don't ask, don't tell rule :-)

The definition I'm most familiar with is this one:

"Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. " (quoted from brittanica but many other references will be word for word the same)

Of course diagnoses might be based on testing, or pragmatism. It's always a bit squishy.

Most of the early CFRs (based on diagnosed cases) were 2-4%. We all knew there were likely LOTS more undiagnosed cases out there. From numerous reports, it's a very large number. The Netherlands data is very interesting because going by the strict definition of CFR it's very high... maybe those folks just don't like to go to the doctor and waited until they were so severe that interventions couldn't help them.

From a lot of recent work, I think the expectation is that if we had ubiquitous testing, we'd find a CFR above 0.5 and below 1.0. Lots higher than the flu but not so bad as the earlier numbers.
 
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So something that always bothers me is the argument about the fatality rate as compared to the “regular” flu. Which is generally accepted to be about %0.1
Aren’t those only “ confirmed” cases as well? I don’t recall reporting to CDC or anyone else last time I had the flu...in other words there are a lot of folks who get the flu who go unreported. You can’t apply one set of assumptions to that number and a different set to Covid-19 right?

I see about 735,000 US confirmed cases and 35,000 deaths.

Spain about 102,000 cases and 20,000 dead
Italy 175,000/23,000 dead
France 111,000/19,000 dead

So in an apples to apples comparison, this would seem to be a LOT more deadly than the common flu, no?
 
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That's exactly why I shared that video here just to see if anyone would notice the working conditions in Art Natural's Warehouse. That's why I didn't order anything from them either, lol
He still has products to ship to customers predating the Coronavirus Outbreak in the US.

mat200 said:
Interesting...

Art Naturals.. claims they are doing what they can to protect workers.. and yet none are wearing masks...wondering if operations like this will become the next pork processing plant...

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bigredfish said:
So something that always bothers me is the argument about the fatality rate as compared to the “regular” flu. Which is generally accepted to be about %0.1
Aren’t those only “ confirmed” cases as well? I don’t recall reporting to CDC or anyone else last time I had the flu...in other words there are a lot of folks who get the flu who go unreported. You can’t apply one set of assumptions to that number and a different set to Covid-19 right?

I see about 735,000 US confirmed cases and 35,000 deaths.

Spain about 102,000 cases and 20,000 dead
Italy 175,000/23,000 dead
France 111,000/19,000 dead

So in an apples to apples comparison, this would seem to be a LOT more deadly than the common flu, no?
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This is a great point and if I have time I am going to look into it. I've wondered the same thing.

Now, if I feel sick and go to Little Clinic, get diagnosed, and come home with some Tamiflu, that's a Case for sure. But what if I sweat it out without reporting? In the very special case of influenza, statistical models exist relating reported Cases to strongly modeled estimates of those having it but not reporting. We have billions of data points for influenza spanning many decades, so the correllation of Cases (diagnosed) with undiagnosed cases (lower case for emphasis) may be one that understood enough to use for CFR purposes.

Influenza is a very special disease, given our relationship with it and the efforts used to get vaccines (usually) effective in time.

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Oceanslider said:
I don’t agree with all of Edward Snowden’s viewpoints, but do in regards to this subject

themindunleashed.com

Snowden: Governments Using Pandemic to Build “Architecture of Oppression” Surveillance

Snowden fears that world leaders will hold onto new emergency powers well after the pandemic ends.
themindunleashed.com themindunleashed.com
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Indeed, the evidence is very clear that this Pandemic gives an excellent excuse to do so, and various Governments are actually taking advantage of this opportunity.

"It is for your safety that we have to [ ]"


"It is for your safety we have to spy on you"
"It is for your safety we have to take your tax dollars and give it to [ ]"
"it is for your safety we have to close gun stores"
"It is for your safety we do not allow you to assemble in groups"
"It is for your safety we will change election rules"
..
 
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Oceanslider said:
Wow, just wow. The former news outlet, The Washington Post, majorly sucking up to the WHO...

No mention at all regarding all the many issues that we here are aware of.

What is wrong with that operation? They are the enemy to truthful news reporting.
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@Oceanslider I'm very disappointed by the Washington Post and New York Times on their coverage on the WHO.

On closer inspection both papers do get significant ad money from China as well as pro-Chinese businesses. It should be clear to those of us who have been keeping up with the facts that numerous "News outlets" have been compromised by China's soft power. ( just like the NBA has been, just like our Airline industry has been - which were forced to deny Taiwan ROC )

Here is an example of "China Watch" being put into the Washington Post.

1587332732370.png

China splurges $500m on broadcasting state media in Australia, asks us to 'see the difference'

I'm planning to watch the Democrats and see which ones back the false narrative on the WHO being on top of this.

Seriously, if a couple of "blokes" can do better on evaluating the corona virus pandemic on youtube ( which has demonetized numerous channels including these 2 ) without getting paid - then it really is a disgrace that main stream news outlets and the WHO have failed us.

( 2 channels in question: Peak Prosperity, and Dr John Campbell )
 

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Trump's response to all the naysayers



Trump 2020


Winner: Trump
 
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