Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

tng5737

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I rcv'd a notice from Amazon cancelling my order of some N95 masks today due to unavailability. I checked for other sources on Amazon and was amazed that almost all the sellers were also marked as 'Unavailable' !
 

DRZmaui

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Very difficult to defend against. Only 100% safe way would be if you had a bunker and could hideaway for 18 months with stored food / water until they have a vaccine and then get vaccinated before you could get exposed. I'm guessing for most people, they either don't have the facility to do that, or have jobs that would prevent that in any event. Watching your boss burn in a nuclear war, is very different to having to go back to an intact world with no job after the virus has cleared. That's going to be a major problem for those that can bug out and most can't.

Only other alternative is going to be to watch the situation and if it becomes widespread, resort to biohazard suits and sterilising anything (including food) brought into the house. Again very difficult for most people who will most likely have to rely on masks, safety glasses and hand washing.
these guy got it right. At first thought it was crazy over reaction, but now no so sure, better than getting sick and dying
24642744-7994821-Another_person_claimed_that_the_protection_given_to_the_tabby_wa-m-2_15815046...jpg
 

bigredfish

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I rcv'd a notice from Amazon cancelling my order of some N95 masks today due to unavailability. I checked for other sources on Amazon and was amazed that almost all the sellers were also marked as 'Unavailable' !
Had same problem from an order 2 weeks ago. Went to Home Depot today and they had gobs of them...
 

CCTVCam

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I rcv'd a notice from Amazon cancelling my order of some N95 masks today due to unavailability. I checked for other sources on Amazon and was amazed that almost all the sellers were also marked as 'Unavailable' !
There's a world wide shortage.

The more worrying aspect is how many of these masks are made in China? I don't know how long the virus can live outside of the body, but imagine if you bought masks made in China only for the person who made /packaged them to have the virus. You could potentially be putting a mask on containing the virus!

these guy got it right. At first thought it was crazy over reaction, but now no so sure, better than getting sick and dying
View attachment 55576
TBH, I think it is over the top. Just as likely to bring the virus into your house on the overalls as your normal clothing and if disposable, how many pairs as he / she got? They say the virus needs close contact ie airborne saliva from sneezing to pass it. So it's unlikely you're even going to get it on your clothing anyway unless you walk up to / talk with other people.
 

DRZmaui

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There's a world wide shortage.

The more worrying aspect is how many of these masks are made in China? I don't know how long the virus can live outside of the body, but imagine if you bought masks made in China only for the person who made /packaged them to have the virus. You could potentially be putting a mask on containing the virus!



TBH, I think it is over the top. Just as likely to bring the virus into your house on the overalls as your normal clothing and if disposable, how many pairs as he / she got? They say the virus needs close contact ie airborne saliva from sneezing to pass it. So it's unlikely you're even going to get it on your clothing anyway unless you walk up to / talk with other people.
The idea is to shed your cover before entering your house. Possibly a quick spray of a bleach solution to the coverall. BTW, I'm a nurse, Have gone thru many personal protection training. Masks are pretty much ineffective with prevention with a virus. 'exceptional' hygiene, limiting touching surfaces/face, avoiding crowds, don't share food and eating utensil and proper/frequent hand washing are the most effective way of prevention. When I return back to work, I'm expected more training with PPE's, and will soon Laurel-Ridge-Ebola.jpgbe required to wear. Don't see much difference.
If SHTF and you need to go out and get supplies, don't think it will be a bad idea,
 
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mat200

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Summary of what I have seen and my expectations.

1) CCP failed to in the critical early stages to contain this virus.
2) 1-2% CFR ( case fatality rate ) - estimated
3) not enough test kits, issues with false negatives.
4) asymptomatic spread appears possible
5) incubation period 2-14 day.. perhaps even as long as 24 days
6) R value - 2+, maybe 2-6 ?
7) Global cases - some countries not reporting ( perhaps unable to test? silent spreading? )
8) Significant impact on supply chains

Considering the facts so far, I would expect this to eventually hit every country.

To prepare I am considering keeping a minimum supply of essentials in case of further supply chain disruption.

Perhaps a good time now to make a list of the critical items:
1) medication - prescriptions, over the counter
2) toileteries ( hong kong ran short of TP .. ) - ..
3) food, water
4) gas ( keep the cars at 1/2 tank or more )
5) bleach and other cleaning supplies to help disinfect
6) masks ( for when / if someone is ill they can wear it to reduce spread of germs ), latex or similar disposable gloves
7) kitchen - paper towels, dish washing soap,...
8) laundry detergents
9) ...
 

DRZmaui

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Summary of what I have seen and my expectations.

1) CCP failed to in the critical early stages to contain this virus.
2) 1-2% CFR ( case fatality rate ) - estimated
3) not enough test kits, issues with false negatives.
4) asymptomatic spread appears possible
5) incubation period 2-14 day.. perhaps even as long as 24 days
6) R value - 2+, maybe 2-6 ?
7) Global cases - some countries not reporting ( perhaps unable to test? silent spreading? )
8) Significant impact on supply chains

Considering the facts so far, I would expect this to eventually hit every country.

To prepare I am considering keeping a minimum supply of essentials in case of further supply chain disruption.

Perhaps a good time now to make a list of the critical items:
1) medication - prescriptions, over the counter
2) toileteries ( hong kong ran short of TP .. ) - ..
3) food, water
4) gas ( keep the cars at 1/2 tank or more )
5) bleach and other cleaning supplies to help disinfect
6) masks ( for when / if someone is ill they can wear it to reduce spread of germs ), latex or similar disposable gloves
7) kitchen - paper towels, dish washing soap,...
8) laundry detergents
9) ...
one other thing, Hand Sanitizers. Stock up now. (keep them handy, get into the habit of using them frequently) When I flew back from Hong Kong earlier this month, The guy sitting next to me, told me the sanitizers disappeared from store shelf's right after Masks. First thing I bought after getting back to the U.S..
 

DRZmaui

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7) Global cases - some countries not reporting ( perhaps unable to test? silent spreading? )
Right, Indonesia and Myanmar, (the two most populous nations in S.E.Asia) stating they are free of any Corona virus, yea, right....
 
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Not concerned. We've had what, 1 or 2 deaths in the US from it. There have been over 10,000 deaths from the flu virus and it barely makes waves on TV. This is news because CN tried to suppress the news & fear sells.
Get your flu shot, wash your hands and cover your mouth when you cough. You'll be fine.
 

mat200

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Not concerned. We've had what, 1 or 2 deaths in the US from it. There have been over 10,000 deaths from the flu virus and it barely makes waves on TV. This is news because CN tried to suppress the news & fear sells.
Get your flu shot, wash your hands and cover your mouth when you cough. You'll be fine.
HI @Paranoid_Loyd

The CFR is 50x the typical flu... so assuming the same infection rate -> 10,000 x50 = 500,000 deaths

"The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.
Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for 2019-nCoV. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2,.."

Also with a significantly higher R0 ( R naught ) value you can expect more people to get infected, so you can expect a higher death number than 500,000 in the USA

It is clearly not just the usual flu. Will it end humanity, no of course not. Does the typical flu precautions work - yes. We will need to do what we can as a society to reduce the effective R and CFR to bring these numbers closer to the flu to reduce the impact to something a bit more "acceptable". ( I am stating acceptable - because as you and others note - we don't make that big of a deal about the seasonal flu, so that imho must be considered by society as an acceptable death rate )
 

bigredfish

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Not concerned. We've had what, 1 or 2 deaths in the US from it. There have been over 10,000 deaths from the flu virus and it barely makes waves on TV. This is news because CN tried to suppress the news & fear sells.
Get your flu shot, wash your hands and cover your mouth when you cough. You'll be fine.

Odds are you’re probably right..

But when in most of our lifetimes have we seen an entire country the size of China simply shut down for going on 3-4 weeks?

So far seems to be 60,000 plus infected, over 1500 dead in what? 8 weeks? I dont know how that compares to the common flu? Is it faster or about the same?
 

guykuo

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For a respectable, medically informed video on this pandemic. see...


Probably the best summary to date. Covers aspects not in mass media like loss of the medical care provider community, why masks fail, etc.
She explains the reality in plain language. Already dated despite only being a few days old.
 

DRZmaui

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That's not a N95 mask,
For a respectable, medically informed video on this pandemic. see...


Probably the best summary to date. Covers aspects not in mass media like loss of the medical care provider community, why masks fail, etc.
She explains the reality in plain language. Already dated despite only being a few days old.
Wow! Must watch.
This gal was incredible, Reinforces a lot of what I've been researching. Especially enlightening reviewing Geo-political issues within the Chinese Communist party. If you don't want to watch the whole interview, a short synopsis, Watch what happens in Singapore and Hong Kong to see how this epidemic will play out
 
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sebastiantombs

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Representative Tom Cotton, R-TX, said in an interview this morning that the whole "originated in a food market" story is false. It may have spread from that market, but it did not originate there and infections started earlier than December, 2019.. It's also interesting to note that there i a large biomedical research lab relatively close to that market. I know that gets into the "conspiracy theory" arena, but facts are facts.
 
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