Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
frankenscript -

I haven't bothered to go to the article because DS is so biased, but while the analysis seems correct I'm not sure of the point.

Is it implying that 15% of the population who live in the green counties are somehow safe due to few cases in residents living in those counties?


No, it's simply stating that the majority of deaths have occurred in those 30 counties and that the 15% number have died in the other 1,900+ counties across the country. If plain numbers can be trusted, of course. Those numbers are dependent on the veracity of the reporting authorities which have been questioned, with some good reasons, from time to time regarding the actual cause of death. It is interesting to see how concentrated the infection and death rates are to a specific geographical area though. That was my intent in posting this and not to "make" you read a heavily "biased" source.
You piqued my interest. I actually went to the DS article (here) . I think there's a disconnect in what you said though, but maybe I'm misunderstanding:

"the majority of deaths have occurred in those 30 counties and that the 15% number have died in the other 1,900+ counties across the country."

I don't think that's what the article is saying. There are 3143 counties in the US. The 1996 counties where there were 1 or 0 deaths account for 63.5% of the 3143 counties and about 15% of the population lives in those 1996 counties. From the chart, I read it as 54.8% of the deaths occur in that top 30 counties that presumably are the "Amtrak counties" (I like that description by the way :)) and 0.6% of the deaths occurred in the 1996 counties that make up a large portion of "very rural America."

So that leaves 44.6% of the deaths (so, 38,000 deaths more or less as of today) that occurred in the rest of the US (or 3143-30-1996=1117 counties, which are shaded white in the bar chart, between the red and green). That's very different than 15% died in "all but 30 counties" which I think might have been what you said. Please correct me if I'm mischaracterizing what you said.

I'm quite glad I moved to the midwest decades ago (I used to live on the east coast), but it's far from COVID-safe here. Indianapolis is a hot spot and I live in a "donut county" that borders it (the ring of counties around Marion County (Indianapolis) is called the donut counties... either from shape or the fact that many of us are fat).

Cases:
1589555571219.png
More than 1500 Hoosiers have died so far, 30-40 per day these days:

1589555632691.png

Good discussion!
(Edit: your latest chart showed up while I was replying; I think we're on the same page)
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
From the same "biased" source using the same number set, but to further illustrate what is going on -

View attachment 61779
I like this chart but wished they indicated % of US population living in each county group, which would reinforce the important story which is that most of us either live or work in areas where COVID-19 is a significant threat.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Almost like a tale of two countries, right there!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Joined
Dec 6, 2014
Messages
3,664
Reaction score
15,181
Location
South Dakota
So if I read the graph right, a majority of Republicans remain uncertain we should open those venues?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
I think that's fair to say-- and a great observation. The article is more about the difference in attitudes towards opening depending on political affiliation. I think the greatest pushback against heavy restrictions is coming where those restrictions are implemented the most. The imagery from arresting a paddleboarder who was alone on the ocean, while hundreds were waiting in lines at big-box stores kind of exposes the idiocy of the policy IMO. It also feeds the conspiracy theorists.

1589567674949.png
 

sebastiantombs

Known around here
Joined
Dec 28, 2019
Messages
11,511
Reaction score
27,696
Location
New Jersey
You mean roughly half of "us" live in those counties. The point, once again, is that high density population areas, especially if there is extensive mass transportation in use, leads to high infection/death rates. Even though this is extremely obvious, the rest of the country, roughly 50% are stuck with the same "shelter in place" restrictions as those high density areas. Note I say this even though I'm in that high density Northeast Corridor area.

I find it interesting that one group wants to open the economy while the other doesn't along pretty obvious party lines. Problem is that if we don't open, in a meaningful manner, soon there will be no economy left to open, unless you want to use a wheelbarrow to carry enough cash to buy a loaf of bread.
 
Last edited:

mat200

IPCT Contributor
Joined
Jan 17, 2017
Messages
14,009
Reaction score
23,343
I have been wondering about this myself after doing more reading on masks that I thought I would ever do. I understand that face coverings block droplets. But what about the aerosolized individual virons that are smaller than the pores in cotton material? Experts are now saying covid can be aerosolized. Ive looked for conclusive studies showing that masks block all virus transmission but cannot find anything.
The whole societal wide application of "everyone wears a mask" theory is simply to get those infected to blow the airborne droplets back in their own face. Thereby reducing P2P transmission. It has 0 to do with preventing individual infections; because pretty much any mask or respirator system which does not filter down to 1 micron is useless for these purposes.
Hi @Ace844 @Jessie.slimer @sdkid @sebastiantombs @StratRider @Frankenscript

1) The data and science you can find numerous links at masks4all - and lots of info typically on Jeremy Howard's twitter page. He is a data science / AI / ML professional and has really done a great job in collecting all the data.

While I have not looked at all of it, there is a lot of very good information on it.

2) While the virus is extremely small, larger droplet and micro-droplet do carry large viral loads. Any reduction in the spread of viral cloud in size or velocity helps reduce the R0 / Rx values.

3) Even a basic cloth mask helps reduce the amount you can get from others. Getting hit with less viral loads can give your body more time to build up antibodies against the virus. Example let's say 1 viral particle hits a cell and reproduces 10x in y mins. So after y min you have 10 virii. If you got hit with a big wuhan snot ball of 100 virus you quickly get nailed as in y mins you now have 1000.

4) Medical healthcare workers were making their own masks due to ppe shortages. Some of these are cloth based.

5) 2 layers of cloth + a paper towel have been proven to be very effective.

6) If you want greater protection you can even use hepa filter paper from AC filters. Some are even using coffee filters.

7) How many times have I seen people snacking on bulk foods with their unwashed hands. A LOT.
Even watched some taste an Orange and put the remainder back on to the pile.
( requiring people to wear masks in the market should help reduce that hand to mouth shop lifting.. ;)

8) How many times have you seen shopper sneeze in the produce area? Before masks were required in stores and during this Pandemic I saw this often enough.

In fact it is possible to make a very good DIY mask:


I really hope people do not make this into a political thing - as requiring people to wear masks indoors and on transport is one of the most cost effective ways to reduce the R0/R and get us back sooner to a functional economy. Otherwise, we're looking at a load more $$$ from borrowing and a big bill for all of this at the end. ( i.e. more taxes.. )
 
Last edited:

mat200

IPCT Contributor
Joined
Jan 17, 2017
Messages
14,009
Reaction score
23,343
I think that's fair to say-- and a great observation. The article is more about the difference in attitudes towards opening depending on political affiliation. I think the greatest pushback against heavy restrictions is coming where those restrictions are implemented the most. The imagery from arresting a paddleboarder who was alone on the ocean, while hundreds were waiting in lines at big-box stores kind of exposes the idiocy of the policy IMO. It also feeds the conspiracy theorists.

View attachment 61788
imho this is abusive excess. Less issues outdoors, and that salt water probably will help kill virii...

Oh, and they enforcers are not social distancing either.. lol
 

mat200

IPCT Contributor
Joined
Jan 17, 2017
Messages
14,009
Reaction score
23,343
Here's a study on how effective are homemade masks.

Doubling up the cloth makes a significant difference.
( adding a paper towel even better.. )

If you're really OCD and have a 3D printer and hepa filter quality material I'm certain you can make a great mask.


1589575675965.png

ref:
 

Arjun

Known around here
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
9,123
Reaction score
11,179
Location
USA
Oh I was just there yesterday, I mean I was in New York but in a rural area. :p

Am I the only one hearing truckers honking in the background?

LOL.... exactly. I live in South Dakota. we primarily have ONE county that has the bulk of all cases in our state. Liberals in that one county want Governor Noem to shut down the entire state. Yeah. Not happening--- Because COMMON SENSE tells you that a tiny town of 400 people with no cases within a hundred miles does not need to follow the same guidelines as a city of 180,000 people that has 2,500 cases.

View attachment 61778
 
Last edited:

Sybertiger

Known around here
Joined
Jun 30, 2018
Messages
4,717
Reaction score
13,617
Location
Orlando

Ace844

Getting the hang of it
Joined
Jan 2, 2020
Messages
41
Reaction score
26
Location
Massachusetts
Hi @Ace844 @Jessie.slimer @sdkid @sebastiantombs @StratRider @Frankenscript

1) The data and science you can find numerous links at masks4all - and lots of info typically on Jeremy Howard's twitter page. He is a data science / AI / ML professional and has really done a great job in collecting all the data.

While I have not looked at all of it, there is a lot of very good information on it.

2) While the virus is extremely small, larger droplet and micro-droplet do carry large viral loads. Any reduction in the spread of viral cloud in size or velocity helps reduce the R0 / Rx values.

3) Even a basic cloth mask helps reduce the amount you can get from others. Getting hit with less viral loads can give your body more time to build up antibodies against the virus. Example let's say 1 viral particle hits a cell and reproduces 10x in y mins. So after y min you have 10 virii. If you got hit with a big wuhan snot ball of 100 virus you quickly get nailed as in y mins you now have 1000.

4) Medical healthcare workers were making their own masks due to ppe shortages. Some of these are cloth based.

5) 2 layers of cloth + a paper towel have been proven to be very effective.

6) If you want greater protection you can even use hepa filter paper from AC filters. Some are even using coffee filters.

7) How many times have I seen people snacking on bulk foods with their unwashed hands. A LOT.
Even watched some taste an Orange and put the remainder back on to the pile.
( requiring people to wear masks in the market should help reduce that hand to mouth shop lifting.. ;)

8) How many times have you seen shopper sneeze in the produce area? Before masks were required in stores and during this Pandemic I saw this often enough.

In fact it is possible to make a very good DIY mask:


I really hope people do not make this into a political thing - as requiring people to wear masks indoors and on transport is one of the most cost effective ways to reduce the R0/R and get us back sooner to a functional economy. Otherwise, we're looking at a load more $$$ from borrowing and a big bill for all of this at the end. ( i.e. more taxes.. )
Hi @mat200 and whoeverdecides to read what follows. Welcome!

1.) I've looked at it a while ago. I'll refresh and see what has been updated. Though it's not going to change much of the below. Thank you for sharing the source though, I always like to critically evaluate a plethora of different sources.

2-3) We agree, you're just restating the same information using slightly different words...., hopefully, we're not going to descend into pedanticism .....
4.) Healthcare workers are making cloth masks and or sourcing their own due to the following

A.) The gross inability of institutions to prepare and or do their duty to protect their employees all the while having no real qualms about not having or getting the stuff they should have had.
aa.) Big money be it VC or the politically connected of every form and many others smelled opportunity and jumped into the grey market. It got brutal fast...

B.) Once shielded from liability for workplace safety/exposure/etc... via various gvt executive means; they decided to wait for states and the fed to show up with their wishlist of gear free of charge. No need to spend capital chasing gear when the gvt will bring it.....eventually....Also no need to buy any because well the states and or fed will bring the gear....

Really, you need to keep that cash handy, never know when you're going to need it like down in point C or so....

There is also that part where you get to skip explaining to the board why you spent it when the gvt was bound to come and since they're indemnified from liability...if some of those front line heroes die nice things will be said but generally "shit happens"...We saved the capital and it's around ya know for bonuses and incentives and such.

I mean who's going to race uphill explaining why they pent and spent to get gear for a long-shot scenario, and lots of it has a shelf life. It's so no Bueno and more headache than it's worth. Better to just go low friction right boys and girls? So buy PPE for the guys in units or on the street? No. ...Hell no...I mean No thank you....

They weren't buying, the red cross and state and local businesses were coming along and doing it for free. others were so valiantly doing the right thing...how could they put a damper on that?? That's bad PR best to encourage it, stay on with the messaging.....yeah!

wait for it



wait for it


Some places are still waiting, no gear (from the fed state, or corp buyers hey everything goes to voicemail right...we have like zoom meetings and have to figure out how to source from more than 1 place...it's a hard knock life man!) or 10 pcs of it which is the same as none. But you're ready to move on to the next point already...right?

C.) When the hospital systems realized the gvt wasn't going to appear in any sort of normal timely manner with PPE gear ( or C-5's full of cash like the Iranians got) they jumped into the market fray that was thoroughly already carnivorous, and thoroughly FUBAR and made it worse. At some point, those without very deep pockets realized they couldn't afford or compete with most of the players. Those with deep pockets were shoved around by the fed, states and 150 other sovereign countries trying to secure gear for their peeps. There were suitcases full of cash and armed coercion happening on runways and elsewhere. Threats were made, political favors and bribes paid all over. People started getting creative; flying charters into Indian reservations and bouncing across multiple free trade zones..a real 21st century anything goes how creative can you be and how fast....

D.) Manufacturer avarice caught up with the market and suddenly tire factories were world-class PPE manufacturers......selling counterfeit non-functional gear...downright dangerous to have in some cases worse than nothing at all......still are but that's getting cleaned up. Seriously squeaky clean. So clean the tooth fairy will be by to take cocktail orders for drinks that include unicorn tears, aged olive oil, and ghost peppers... No wait, that's the Fleets enema Spa menu for the #qualintine crowd...really...like 4 real....but, I digress...

E.) The CN foreign ministry got sick of taking Ambassadors calls and fielding high-level direct plainly worded complaints about point D. So they got all 12th century and buddies up with MSS and justice and started throwing their weight around...a little. They shut down shipments and started their own QA system that made everything worse.....P

F.) Manufacturers supply chains started to fail, they couldn't keep up with the demand for raw materials and components so they started jacking up pricing to factories 3X,....5X...then 50X, and so on....Now they can't supply much at all, the cupboards are bare $$'s have no bearing. Manufacturers now have to wait, and the raw component suppliers are getting the same feeding frenzy the manufacturers got earlier....

and we're back to wait for it.... wait for it.....except there is no fast forward button here.

G.) more of repeating points A-F again, and again....

H.) net end result....Folks who need the gear the most are left begging won't and trying to get free donations of cloth masks so they can have some level of delusion about being protected and not having to go without anything....

I.) It's very slowly getting better but by like 15% not 99% or more. This is why healthcare workers are wearing cloth masks and paramedics on the street are wearing the same ones for a couple weeks at time in some places.

Does all of the above piss you off? If not it should!

5.) We can agree to disagree. Let's just say application and variance in application decrease a lot of the efficacy/supposition put into the origin data/rationale for such claims..As you aptly illustrate in your points 7 and 8

6.) If I want great protection I'll get a 1 micron filter system combined with a PAPR and full-face shield along with other appropriate gear and use it because I don't want what everyone else has got...Think of me as a no sharing zone. A real it's better to give viral load than receive any type of miser. Except I don't have any or want it

*note= there's a lot of ways to have effective protection....the aforementioned is just 1, yours may or may not be different.YMMV


7.) You can't fix stupid, it's organic and forever.

8.) See #7
 
Last edited:
Top