Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[Frankenscript]

FWIW, among my liberal bubble there's a direct correlation between how progressive you are and how likely you believe it to be Trump faking the illness. Many expect him to emerge in 14 days claiming HQ cured him or whatever.

I'm on the far right of the liberal bubble, so I consider it a possibility but likely a remote one that he's faking for sympathy.

In any event, I wish him and Melania a quick return to health. And I REALLY HOPE he didn't spread it to Joe. Biden had a negative test earlier today but who knows... long incubation period.

 

[bigredfish]

I heard it was a liberal CNN operative secretly working for the Harris er.. I mean Biden campaign that gave it to Trump

 

[Frankenscript]

I heard it was a liberal CNN operative secretly working for the Harris er.. I mean Biden campaign that gave it to Trump

No liberal wants to do anything to destabilize the campaign. I can't prognosticate the outcome particularly with what's going on in Texas and Pennsylvania, but the trend has been favorable for us and anything that could generate sympathy for him isn't on our agenda.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

 

[bigredfish]

Just pokin in fun

 

[Oceanslider]

Well, POTUS and FLOTUS tested positive.

This worries the crap out of me.

Of course, as for any other people, I wish them speedy recovery.

Maybe it will lead him to take the virus seriously, but presuming he has a light or asymptomatic case it will probably embolden him.

Not liking this, this close to the election. I hope he didn't give it to Biden at the debate...

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He always has taken it seriously. He closed the border with China in January, and Biden and the rest the the Dems, like "Come to Chinatown" pelosi, and there fake news networks called him xenophobic. Which is there typical false narrative that is dividing the country more than it has in modern history.

 

[BobRegnar]

After nine months of "playing it down" the situation has come home to roost.

Wonder if Trump supporter "mask scoffers" will change their tunes?

Do you think Trump was "playing it down" when he closed down the air travel to great ridicule from the lefties? Or shut down the economy aka his greatest chance at a landslide re-election?

With all the greatest medical attention and precautions surrounding POTUS and FLOTUS it might make folks wonder if it does any good at all!
How many times have I read here the masks are to protect others from you not you from others?

Whatever the military's doing to keep their numbers at .2% of .3% is probably worth a look, especially considering their group-centric existence which is deemed deadly by the dem brown shirts.

 

[fenderman]

Maybe it will lead him to take the virus seriously, but presuming he has a light or asymptomatic case it will probably embolden him.

I understand that you have a financial stake in promoting the virus so it makes sense that you lie about it.
Why would he take this virus seriously? This virus is a joke to anyone who can read the cdc numbers. 5000 deaths for those under 44. 14000 for those under 54. Almost every single one of those deaths had a comorbidity. Extrapolated over 1 year (even without accounting for the deaths per day dropping significantly) it is factually accurate to state that if you are under 54 is safer to contract covid than to ride in a motor vehicle that results in about 38,000 deaths per year. Of the 200k deaths 59,000 were over 85 and 50,000 between 75-85. These are old almost dead folks.
For folks between 65 and 74 (Trumps age range) there have been only 41,000 deaths, 18000 of those also had the flu and pneumonia, 8500 had diabeties, 4300 renal failure, 1249 poisoning lol (really the cdc counted these as "covid" deaths) thousands of others with cardiac issues. So my question to you is, when will you stop driving.

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Mike A.]

So my question to you is, when will you stop driving...

Ahhh... That explains why I see people wearing masks while alone in their cars!

 

[Jessie.slimer]

So Trump finally got the virus. The most protected man on the planet. Anyone who goes near him has to get tested first, yet he got it. Spoiler alert.... everyone will get it. Most probably have already had it.. As many have pointed out, most are likely to recover with any long term consequences. Any speculation on long term effects are just that. SPECULATION. Show me proof or it's just fear mongering.

 

[Ssayer]

We know that some people have been re-infected, but most don't.

Who are those "We" of which you speak? Everyone? Those who profit off of it? Our trusted Politicians? YOUR favorite group of doctors??? I could go on, but why bother...

 

[sebastiantombs]

"as far as "everyone will get it" or "most probably have already had it" if that is the case then the number of current cases would be flat lining right now with only small upticks. We know that some people have been re-infected, but most don't. "

If most have already been infected, and even the so-called "experts" say that way more people than have been identified as infected have been infected, it only makes simple, common, sense that the number of cases will continue to increase as more and more people are tested rather than flat line.

 

[juliand]

I said this earlier. It's gonna run its course through everyone, protection or not. The scientists in the ccp developed it that way, and it got away from them, supposedly. What a way to go just about go door to door and step on their citizens lives and weed out, those who don't conform.
Our little masks, what a joke.

 

[juliand]

I just want to see a new camera reviewed, maybe even a U.S.A. made one.

 

[sebastiantombs]

The basic tests aren't all that reliable either. False positives are as frequent as false negatives. Assuming they are, at last, semi-accurate if the virus is present at a high enough level they will show a positive whether or not the patient is displaying symptoms or not, whether it's early in the infection or as the infection is dying down and anywhere in between. That time period can range from weeks to months. Putting any real significance to any of these numbers is just, flat out, speculation in the first place. Saying if x, then y is just a guessing game of variables that are not yet established facts. The number of positives will continue to go up due to testing errors, testing people who are already infected and aren't even aware of it and continued spread of the CCP virus. Since none of those numbers can be firmly established by the "experts", pointing to any one cause, or combination of causes, is once again nothing more than speculation.

I've said since the beginning that masks won't work. The virus is far, far, smaller than the size any mask can filter. Yes, a mask may help stop spreading sneeze and cough spray, but the virus, itself, will still get through that N95 mask, let alone a dust mask, like it's not even there.

 

[Frankenscript]

So Trump finally got the virus. The most protected man on the planet. Anyone who goes near him has to get tested first, yet he got it. Spoiler alert.... everyone will get it. Most probably have already had it.. As many have pointed out, most are likely to recover with any long term consequences. Any speculation on long term effects are just that. SPECULATION. Show me proof or it's just fear mongering.

I've repeatedly posted here about infection rates and prevalence of the disease. By integrating case (diagnosis) count and positivity rate over time, and factoring in that anywhere from 5x to 10x as many people are infected as present as cases (known from several random sampling studies), you get an overall US number of "somewhat north of 10% have been infected at some time as the lower bound. More recent data suggests it's closer to 15-20% with some populations (typically specific urban demographics like the service industry) being higher than that and rural communities generally being lower. LOTS of data is now being collected based on serology showing presence of antibodies in previously exposed people; what I'm hearing from multiple sources some public some not is that the number is in the "close to 20% have been infected" range. I've posted some links previously if you want to dig into it. If you want to speculate it's a lot higher than that, please post your own data to show it, and explain why we still are getting 40k NEW diagnosed cases per day.

The basic tests aren't all that reliable either. False positives are as frequent as false negatives. Assuming they are, at last, semi-accurate if the virus is present at a high enough level they will show a positive whether or not the patient is displaying symptoms or not, whether it's early in the infection or as the infection is dying down and anywhere in between. That time period can range from weeks to months. Putting any real significance to any of these numbers is just, flat out, speculation in the first place. Saying if x, then y is just a guessing game of variables that are not yet established facts. The number of positives will continue to go up due to testing errors, testing people who are already infected and aren't even aware of it and continued spread of the CCP virus. Since none of those numbers can be firmly established by the "experts", pointing to any one cause, or combination of causes, is once again nothing more than speculation.

I've said since the beginning that masks won't work. The virus is far, far, smaller than the size any mask can filter. Yes, a mask may help stop spreading sneeze and cough spray, but the virus, itself, will still get through that N95 mask, let alone a dust mask, like it's not even there.

Masks are working great to contain the spread. Stopping the virus while it is mostly associated with droplets coming out of mouth/nose is key, and simple cloth masks do a good job of this. Recently, flu prevalence during summer months has been measured as being at between 10-20% normal for that time of year, and the reason for this outlier low prevalence is pretty obviously due to distancing and mask use.

 

[sebastiantombs]

Explain to me exactly how a mask that can filter to 500 microns will stop something as small as 50 microns? To me a mask is very similar to a screen door on a submarine. Yes, as I said, it will stop droplets from a sneeze or cough, but not the virus itself. I strongly suspect that when Fauci said masks won't help back at the beginning, he was right because of this simple fact, but politically "something has to be done to make everyone feel safe" whether it's actually effective or not.

 

[Frankenscript]

I understand that you have a financial stake in promoting the virus so it makes sense that you lie about it.
Why would he take this virus seriously? This virus is a joke to anyone who can read the cdc numbers. 5000 deaths for those under 44. 14000 for those under 54. Almost every single one of those deaths had a comorbidity. Extrapolated over 1 year (even without accounting for the deaths per day dropping significantly) it is factually accurate to state that if you are under 54 is safer to contract covid than to ride in a motor vehicle that results in about 38,000 deaths per year. Of the 200k deaths 59,000 were over 85 and 50,000 between 75-85. These are old almost dead folks.
For folks between 65 and 74 (Trumps age range) there have been only 41,000 deaths, 18000 of those also had the flu and pneumonia, 8500 had diabeties, 4300 renal failure, 1249 poisoning lol (really the cdc counted these as "covid" deaths) thousands of others with cardiac issues. So my question to you is, when will you stop driving.

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

I disagree with the way you are comparing metrics. You would need to compare "risk if I ride a motor vehicle" with "risk if I'm infected with covid"

Let's look at motor vehicle deaths. Taking your 38k deaths per year (I'm assuming this is correct; I didn't look it up), and dividing by let's say 300M motor vehicle driver/passengers in the US, you get about 0.013% chance of dying if your are a motor vehicle driver/rider at some point during the year. It's a broad bucket of course (actual personal risk will be based on how often do you ride, where do you ride, risky behavors, etc..).

As a 53 year old person in the US, my risk if I'm infected with COVID-19 is far higher than that. My intent was to look up the CRF by age then divide by 5-10 to get an IFR range (because for every diagnosed case there are 5-10 infections, and IFR is the important factor). But surprisingly I didn't quickly find in google a relevant US CFR-by-age chart and I'm short on time due to a kid doctor appointment. Still, what I remember last time I looked is that for my age range I'm between 1-2% CFR (so 0.1 to 0.4 IFR). (this page has some metrics supporting this) So, my risk of dying is between 0.1% and 0.4% if I get infected by the virus, and 5-10x this if I progress to being a diagnosed case. I have a similar BMI as Trump (30-ish), so I'm probably on the higher end of this scale. If you've got a handy CFR-by-age-in-the-US link please share.

Also, it's important to consider that dying is only one unfavorable endpoint of COVID-19. Something like 5-10% of cases (not infections) have long lasting negative effects due to lung damage, damage to other organs, long term fatigue or malaise that is currently poorly understood, and other factors. Let's be clear about this: Based on our 7.5M US COVID-19 cases, we've got many hundreds of thousands of people who have not fully recovered and we don't know how permanent the damage to these lives will be.

Based on this I'll keep driving and keep maintaining proper isolation.

Further, the comorbidities listed on the CDC page are frequently caused by having the virus, not necessarily pre-existing conditions. They are conditions that existed at time of death.

 

[Frankenscript]

The basic tests aren't all that reliable either. False positives are as frequent as false negatives. Assuming they are, at last, semi-accurate if the virus is present at a high enough level they will show a positive whether or not the patient is displaying symptoms or not, whether it's early in the infection or as the infection is dying down and anywhere in between. That time period can range from weeks to months. Putting any real significance to any of these numbers is just, flat out, speculation in the first place. Saying if x, then y is just a guessing game of variables that are not yet established facts. The number of positives will continue to go up due to testing errors, testing people who are already infected and aren't even aware of it and continued spread of the CCP virus. Since none of those numbers can be firmly established by the "experts", pointing to any one cause, or combination of causes, is once again nothing more than speculation.

I've said since the beginning that masks won't work. The virus is far, far, smaller than the size any mask can filter. Yes, a mask may help stop spreading sneeze and cough spray, but the virus, itself, will still get through that N95 mask, let alone a dust mask, like it's not even there.

The virus we shed is mostly attached to droplets or other particles, and is captured by the mask when we breathe out and talk. We don't shed much "naked virus" not associated with droplets. There's a lot of data. There's also the recent data showing flu prevelance is WAY down compared to normal years. Historically low by 5-10x and it's due to the measures we're taking due to COVID.

 

[Jessie.slimer]

There is a video from a doctor about how masks are only effective if they are properly fitted (n95) and even then they have to be fitted and rechecked with a smell test periodically. I'll try to find it later, but I'm sure she has already been discredited/ video removed.

I finished some drywall last week in my dog's room, and wore one of the many n95 masks I bought months ago when I was drinking the kool-aid, and when it came off I had drywall dust inside the mask from it not fitting perfectly. Imagine if that were microscopic virons. Imagine if I were only wearing a bandana or surgical mask.

 

[bigredfish]

I recall taking about it with my cardiologist and GP in April (they’re buddies and share a building) I asked them if they thought it was aerosolized and they both said, “oh hell yeah” and I’ve continued to think that.

It’s floating around in confined spaces, and lasts for some time suspended in the air. I think 6ft spacing at the grocery store is theater.

Do masks help? I dunno. Probably helps if those infected wear them to some degree to reduce the broadcast, but if you’re in a confined area (room) with others who are infected, I’m not sure that most of the masks being worn are all that effective.