Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[sebastiantombs]

Again, screen door on a submarine. If I'm infected and wearing a mask, or in the vicinity of someone who is infected and wearing a mask, and in either case we are both breathing, chances are the virus, naked virus, is present in exhaled air and will pass, very neatly, through the mask and even both masks. After all, we're constantly hammered with how contagious the CCP Virus is. Simple physics of the situation.

As @Jessie.slimer mentioned proper fit to get even a modicum level of filtration, 500 microns, is utterly key and most people just put the thing on without checking or leave it below their nose rendering it totally useless. I've seen those "sneeze tests" but they detect liquid droplets and not the virus itself. It is very obvious to anyone who is paying any attention, or has a few brain cells firing, that it is far more contagious than initially thought and more contagious than thought even now.

A mask is like a band aid on a compound fracture.

 

[Frankenscript]

One of my hobbies involves airbrushing with acrylic paints (Createx stuff, water based). If I do just a quick few minutes spraying and don't wear a mask I would see that I've breathed the rainbow. Snot phlegm etc is colorful. I don't do that anymore. Wearing a Lowe's issue N95 or KN95 I can paint for an hour and my snot runs clear. Outside of the mask is visibly colored; inside bright white.

Simple non fitted masks do a good not great job against aerosol particles. Much better than nothing.

The six foot guideline is not magic. It's lots better than 3 feet and much worse than 12 feet. Think inverse square law.

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[sebastiantombs]

If you're using anything containing lacquer thinner I would strongly suggest a fitted 3M mask made for VOCs. They come, standard, with N95 filters on top of the VOC filter. I worked with acrylic enamels and sprayers for a long time. My favorite "mask" was a supplied air system. Bit of a PITA, but guaranteed no problems with VOCs or particulates.

And this from a guy that doesn't see the point of a mask to stop the CCP Virus!

 

[Frankenscript]

If you're using anything containing lacquer thinner I would strongly suggest a fitted 3M mask made for VOCs. They come, standard, with N95 filters on top of the VOC filter. I worked with acrylic enamels and sprayers for a long time. My favorite "mask" was a supplied air system. Bit of a PITA, but guaranteed no problems with VOCs or particulates.

And this from a guy that doesn't see the point of a mask to stop the CCP Virus!

Completely agree. VOCs take a respirator that will scrub the organics. I don't spray those in my basement.

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[bigredfish]

Again, screen door on a submarine. If I'm infected and wearing a mask, or in the vicinity of someone who is infected and wearing a mask, and in either case we are both breathing, chances are the virus, naked virus, is present in exhaled air and will pass, very neatly, through the mask and even both masks. After all, we're constantly hammered with how contagious the CCP Virus is. Simple physics of the situation.

As @Jessie.slimer mentioned proper fit to get even a modicum level of filtration, 500 microns, is utterly key and most people just put the thing on without checking or leave it below their nose rendering it totally useless. I've seen those "sneeze tests" but they detect liquid droplets and not the virus itself. It is very obvious to anyone who is paying any attention, or has a few brain cells firing, that it is far more contagious than initially thought and more contagious than thought even now.

A mask is like a band aid on a compound fracture.

I think we agree..

 

[sebastiantombs]

Completely agree. VOCs take a respirator that will scrub the organics. I don't spray those in my basement.

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I did most of my spraying outside. Again, from a guy who seriously doubts the effectiveness of an N95 mask mitigating the CCP Virus spread to any great significance.

 

[fenderman]

I disagree with the way you are comparing metrics. You would need to compare "risk if I ride a motor vehicle" with "risk if I'm infected with covid"

Let's look at motor vehicle deaths. Taking your 38k deaths per year (I'm assuming this is correct; I didn't look it up), and dividing by let's say 300M motor vehicle driver/passengers in the US, you get about 0.013% chance of dying if your are a motor vehicle driver/rider at some point during the year. It's a broad bucket of course (actual personal risk will be based on how often do you ride, where do you ride, risky behavors, etc..).

As a 53 year old person in the US, my risk if I'm infected with COVID-19 is far higher than that. My intent was to look up the CRF by age then divide by 5-10 to get an IFR range (because for every diagnosed case there are 5-10 infections, and IFR is the important factor). But surprisingly I didn't quickly find in google a relevant US CFR-by-age chart and I'm short on time due to a kid doctor appointment. Still, what I remember last time I looked is that for my age range I'm between 1-2% CFR (so 0.1 to 0.4 IFR). (this page has some metrics supporting this) So, my risk of dying is between 0.1% and 0.4% if I get infected by the virus, and 5-10x this if I progress to being a diagnosed case. I have a similar BMI as Trump (30-ish), so I'm probably on the higher end of this scale. If you've got a handy CFR-by-age-in-the-US link please share.

Also, it's important to consider that dying is only one unfavorable endpoint of COVID-19. Something like 5-10% of cases (not infections) have long lasting negative effects due to lung damage, damage to other organs, long term fatigue or malaise that is currently poorly understood, and other factors. Let's be clear about this: Based on our 7.5M US COVID-19 cases, we've got many hundreds of thousands of people who have not fully recovered and we don't know how permanent the damage to these lives will be.

Based on this I'll keep driving and keep maintaining proper isolation.

Further, the comorbidities listed on the CDC page are frequently caused by having the virus, not necessarily pre-existing conditions. They are conditions that existed at time of death.

Wrong, by your logic We must look at your chance of dying from Covid not the chance of dying once you’re infected with Covid, which is still so low it’s a joke. Otherwise you need to look at your chance of dying If you’re involved in an automobile accident rather than your chance of dying while you’re driving. if you do the math your chance of dying If you’re involved in an automobile accident is much higher then the low percentage you mentioned. This is basic statistical analysis and the fact that you’re deliberately misleading again points to your financial interest and your political interest in promoting false information about Covid.

 

[Frankenscript]

Wrong, by your logic We must look at your chance of dying from Covid not the chance of dying once you’re infected with Covid, which is still so low it’s a joke. Otherwise you need to look at your chance of dying If you’re involved in an automobile accident rather than your chance of dying while you’re driving. if you do the math your chance of dying If you’re involved in an automobile accident is much higher then the low percentage you mentioned. This is basic statistical analysis and the fact that you’re deliberately misleading again points to your financial interest and your political interest in promoting false information about Covid.

I'm not deliberately misleading anyone. You are comparing things incorrectly.

I'm a driver in the US; there's a chance I might be involved in an accident and a chance I might die. Per your 38k metric, and assuming 300M motor vehicle riders during the year, my average chance of dying in a motor vehicle is 0.013% during the year. The likelihood of dying already includes the accident potential baked in. I enter into the risk group when I get into a car, not when I get in an accident. If I don't get in a car my risk is zero. The accident causes all of the risk but the choice to participate in the activity is when I sit in the seat.

By similar token if I isolate completely my risk of virus is essentially zero (it's not possible to completely isolate, in practice). However I do go out, shopping, doctor appointments, kid's soccer this morning: I followed the protocol set by the soccer group: I wore a mask, I sat away from other family groups, my son wore a mask to and from the field (obviously not while playing). The biggest risk in all this is that he would get it from one of the other kids during the game; I would prefer to suffer this level of risk than have him miss the season of a sport he loves. Effectively, I'm multiplying the couple tenths of a percent chance of dying if I get COVID, times some small likelihood that I will contract the disease due to the activity.

Also: I have no financial interest in COVID-19. I've taken a hit from it, but it's minor compared to what a lot of other people are going through, and I still have a job so I have no complaint about it. The company I work for was doing well before crisis; the disruption caused by the pandemic hurt us but we've adapted and expect to weather the storm OK. Sure, at this time we do work on COVID-19 related things, swapping that work for other work that may be on hold to use capacity. I think we want to get back to normal ASAP though, not drag it out. The disease isn't causing favorable numbers, for sure.

Everything I post on this forum is as accurate and truthful as I can make it. In the cases where I find out I was wrong I fess up about it and post a correction; there have been several incidences of this. A lot of others here are the same way and correct themselves; others don't.

 

[fenderman]

I'm not deliberately misleading anyone. You are comparing things incorrectly.

I'm a driver in the US; there's a chance I might be involved in an accident and a chance I might die. Per your 38k metric, and assuming 300M motor vehicle riders during the year, my average chance of dying in a motor vehicle is 0.013% during the year. The likelihood of dying already includes the accident potential baked in. I enter into the risk group when I get into a car, not when I get in an accident. If I don't get in a car my risk is zero. The accident causes all of the risk but the choice to participate in the activity is when I sit in the seat.

By similar token if I isolate completely my risk of virus is essentially zero (it's not possible to completely isolate, in practice). However I do go out, shopping, doctor appointments, kid's soccer this morning: I followed the protocol set by the soccer group: I wore a mask, I sat away from other family groups, my son wore a mask to and from the field (obviously not while playing). The biggest risk in all this is that he would get it from one of the other kids during the game; I would prefer to suffer this level of risk than have him miss the season of a sport he loves. Effectively, I'm multiplying the couple tenths of a percent chance of dying if I get COVID, times some small likelihood that I will contract the disease due to the activity.

Also: I have no financial interest in COVID-19. I've taken a hit from it, but it's minor compared to what a lot of other people are going through, and I still have a job so I have no complaint about it. The company I work for was doing well before crisis; the disruption caused by the pandemic hurt us but we've adapted and expect to weather the storm OK. Sure, at this time we do work on COVID-19 related things, swapping that work for other work that may be on hold to use capacity. I think we want to get back to normal ASAP though, not drag it out. The disease isn't causing favorable numbers, for sure.

Everything I post on this forum is as accurate and truthful as I can make it. In the cases where I find out I was wrong I fess up about it and post a correction; there have been several incidences of this. A lot of others here are the same way and correct themselves; others don't.

Sorry, I should have been more clear, you were not deliberately misleading, you are outright lying for financial and political gain, on the backs of hardworking small business. Hopefully you will suffer severe financial losses so that you can begin to understand the plight of those suffering due to lies coming from your ilk. You work for a company that have a financial interest in covid. You have said as much.

Let me help you with the statistics where you schooling failed you.
If you must compare apples to apples.
Risk of contracting covid to risk of being involved in an accident
risk of dying from covid to risk of dying in the car accident.
Like I said, even accounting for comorbidities we have 5k people under 44 dead from "covid". Under 54, 13,500 (that already includes the 5k of those under 44) That is a JOKE. Use your brain. These are numbers from the CDC and are already inflated. Only a brainless moron or someone who is 75+ with comorbidites should be concerned. Otherwise feel free to go about your business. In my office no one is required to wear masks. Only one of my 10 employees chooses to wear her mask and only when she meets clients.

 

[BobRegnar]

I would prefer to suffer this level of risk than have him miss the season of a sport he loves.

This is what it's all about. You trust yourself to assess risk for you and yours? Why can't everyone else? Last I checked covid or no, it's still America.

 

[Frankenscript]

This is what it's all about. You trust yourself to assess risk for you and yours? Why can't everyone else? Last I checked covid or no, it's still America.

I trust myself to assess risk and go out and about my business following the rules that the club puts forth. If not, I would stay in. My choices are stay in, or go out following rules to protect others. It's not a choice of mine to go out, and break the rules of the club for example by not wearing a mask or engaging in some other risky activity there that could impact others. Likewise when I go to the grocery store, there is a mask requirement to enter. I wear a mask. There are arrows on the floor showing which way to go in the aisles to reduce passing proximity to others. Personally I think in the case of the grocery store I go to that floor arrow thing is a futile gesture at least at the low traffic times I go, but I follow it. Point being, I either follow the rules, or I don't participate. I can be stricter than the rules require, but I don't ignore the rules even if I think they are silly.

 

[Frankenscript]

For a perspective outside the US politics zone, here is a report from Canada. The Quebec area and Montreal in particular is having a big outbreak, by their standards. That area is having
about 740 new cases a day, and an uptick in deaths (though puny by US standards). Based on this it's massive lockdowns and they have a new system of "Telewarrants" to let the police quickly get the OK to go in and break up suspicious gatherings:

Quebec police given 'telewarrant' system to enforce new lockdown orders

Three Quebec regions face partial lockdown measures starting today after reaching the highest COVID-19 alert level earlier this week, and police can now use telewarrants to enforce health measures.

montreal.ctvnews.ca

I figured this forum would have a field day with this.

For comparison, Indiana has recently removed restrictions in most places on things like how many people can be in a restaurant; it's a blatantly political move to restore a sense of normalcy prior to the election.

 

[Oceanslider]

For a perspective outside the US politics zone, here is a report from Canada. The Quebec area and Montreal in particular is having a big outbreak, by their standards. That area is having
about 740 new cases a day, and an uptick in deaths (though puny by US standards). Based on this it's massive lockdowns and they have a new system of "Telewarrants" to let the police quickly get the OK to go in and break up suspicious gatherings:

Quebec police given 'telewarrant' system to enforce new lockdown orders

Three Quebec regions face partial lockdown measures starting today after reaching the highest COVID-19 alert level earlier this week, and police can now use telewarrants to enforce health measures.

montreal.ctvnews.ca

I figured this forum would have a field day with this.

For comparison, Indiana has recently removed restrictions in most places on things like how many people can be in a restaurant; it's a blatantly political move to restore a sense of normalcy prior to the election.

You are a fucking idiot

 

[Ssayer]

You are a fucking idiot

I have had him on ignore for a LONG time now, and I still agree with you...

 

[Jessie.slimer]

as far as "everyone will get it" or "most probably have already had it" if that is the case then the number of current cases would be flat lining right now with only small upticks. We know that some people have been re-infected, but most don't.

There are more tests being administered now vs several months ago, even though I do not believe their reliability. Look at deaths. Those are harder to manipulate data on, though they are trying their damndest.

Who has been reinfected?

 

[Jessie.slimer]

I've repeatedly posted here about infection rates and prevalence of the disease. By integrating case (diagnosis) count and positivity rate over time, and factoring in that anywhere from 5x to 10x as many people are infected as present as cases (known from several random sampling studies)

There are more tests being administered now vs several months ago, even though I do not believe their reliability. Look at deaths. Those are harder to manipulate data on, though they are trying their damndest.

 

[Arjun]

What the heck, it’s not like it’s the last train before dawn lmao

 

[Arjun]

You think NK would be cool if we visited Pyongyang for a day or two? Apparently, no COVID Cases

Which countries have not reported any coronavirus cases?

Coronavirus has been labelled a pandemic but a handful of countries have not yet reported any cases.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Frankenscript]

There are more tests being administered now vs several months ago, even though I do not believe their reliability. Look at deaths. Those are harder to manipulate data on, though they are trying their damndest.

Hi Jessie,

You are right there is much more testing (for active infections) now than months ago. Positivity generally is going down which is a good thing. (Similar number of new cases per day divided by larger number of tests). Specific states and cities are on the rise though.

You've often proposed thst many more people have had COVID-19 than is widely reported, but today I saw that several of the big labs are now offering free serology tests to detect past infections. I believe LabCorp, Quest, and some others are offering it. If you Google "Free Covid antibody test near me" you will probably have several options. Get a bunch of friends or family together and see what the results are.

I would be interested to hear the results. If you are curious or would be comforted by a result, give it a try. I did this as part of a work study months ago (I was negative, then), and plan to do it again soon (my wife had a mystery illness in July).



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[Jessie.slimer]

I did inquire about an antibody test, but I was told that like most things covid related, not a lot is known about how the antibodies work. Many, including the Red Cross, are saying that antibodies might not be detectable after several months of a cleared infection. So if I had the CCP virus in, say, March, I may have no trace if it, all the while being counted by the experts and sampling as someone who is a potential future carrier. Someone who has not gotten it. I will not bother with such any nonsense, unreliable testing that may or may not tell me if I have it, or have had it.

I am curious to see the total number of all US deaths in 2020 and compare this number to total deaths in 2019, 18, etc.