Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?
- Thread starter erkme73
- Start date
This should be the first step towards containing the spread
LOL, at least its projected rebound again soon, working vaccine should be on its way in the coming weeks, lets hope this strain doesn't mutate itself into another shape / form. 
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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LOL, at least its projected rebound again soon, working vaccine should be on its way in the coming weeks, lets hope this strain doesn't mutate itself into another shape / form.
FYI - typical vaccine development and acceptance cycle to deploy is 6-18 months.
At best we can hope for in coming weeks we get a candidate for trials ( needs to go through phase 1, II, III )
Basically need to test:
Is it safe?
Does it work?
There's a toilet paper frenzy. Large retailers have today resorted to putting a "four pack" limit in place for bog-roll. I guess that limits people to 96 rolls of shit-wrap in any single transaction... at least until the 24 packs are cleared out.
I need to do a routine shop but can't bear to go. I know I'll end up punching some manic hoarder in the face.
You can make moonshine from toilet paper.. Not only will it get you drunk, it can be used as a disinfectant. LOL
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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FYI - Wally-Mart check Wed March 4 2020
Lots of TP
No rubbing alcohol
No Hand sanitizers
Limited cold medications ( store brand, i.e. 1/2 price of major brands out in some versions )
one worker wearing a mask
no masks to be found to buy...
Disinfectant wipes stations by entrance / exit where the carts are.
No disinfectant wipes near touch screen kiosks ( remember to pick up at entrance / exit )
Lots of TP
No rubbing alcohol
No Hand sanitizers
Limited cold medications ( store brand, i.e. 1/2 price of major brands out in some versions )
one worker wearing a mask
no masks to be found to buy...
Disinfectant wipes stations by entrance / exit where the carts are.
No disinfectant wipes near touch screen kiosks ( remember to pick up at entrance / exit )
Then you find out that every store has stock but is not putting them on the shelves until the real pandemic pans out.
The Wuhan still have 130+ new infection and 31 dead in the past 24hours, and left part of China only have 5 infections now.
I really wonder about the numbers being reported from all of these countries.
It's funny how Americans (myself included) poo-poo'ed the numbers coming from China. Given all the videos which were snuck through their firewall, it was pretty evident that many more people were dying than the official numbers. Fast forward a month and see how the freedom-loving, ever-transparent US government does it...
South Korea is testing 8000 people per day. The US, with a population of 327 MILLION people has, as of last week, officially only test 436 people... total. Then, to add insult to injury, our .gov tells us how great of a job they've done to keep us safe. "see! no new cases in all this time". It's easy to find no new infections, if you don't look!
The outbreak in Kirkland, WA was discovered not due to diligence on behalf of the CDC. No, instead it was a local lab that developed its own in-house COVID19 test since the CDC refused repeatedly to test a suspected patient. Only after they discovered that the kid was positive, did the pressure mount for official tests - which then revealed the outbreak.
Further, after sequencing the virus found in two different people in WA, researchers have been able to identify and compare the strains for minute differences - and thereby determine that the virus has been present in the Kirkland area for at least six weeks. The former FDA Director stated on CNBC yesterday that this implies there could be between 500 and 1500 undetected infections in that area.
With 11 dead US citizens, on a total infected population of around 100 (excluding repatriated citizens from China and the Diamond Princess), the case fatality rate in the US is at 10%. The only explanation for such a high CFR (relative to the 3.4% consensus from all other areas) is that either a) the strain in the US has mutated and become significantly more lethal, or more likely, the population of infected citizens is multiple times higher.
Lastly, the CDC announced late last week that they were authorizing 90 public labs to conduct COVID19 testing to find "presumptive positive" cases (which would then be officially confirmed by CDC) by this past Monday or Tuesday. Conveniently, starting Monday, the CDC has removed vital statistics from their website indicating the total number of infected. So much for transparency.
I get that they're trying to avoid panic - and that panic can result in more damage than the virus itself. However, keeping people in the dark - whether through omission or deception - deprives us of the ability to better prepare and protect ourselves. Many of my immediate family are firmly in the "the flu is more dangerous" camp precisely because of these under-counted statistics. "They've only found 4 in Florida", says my dad. Oblivious to the fact that they only found four because countless others - whom the doctors are BEGGING for tests - are being intentionally declined for tests.
I didn't mean for this to get so wordy and would have loved to source all of my claims... but it's late, and everything I've stated is verifiable from official sources.
Frankenscript
Known around here
- Dec 21, 2017
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Actually the CFR is probably much lower. As you said, there were probably hundreds to over a thousand undetected cases in WA and only a few deaths.
High quality high quantity testing is about to be available in the US and we will soon know how widespread this thing really is.
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
High quality high quantity testing is about to be available in the US and we will soon know how widespread this thing really is.
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
Q™
IPCT Contributor
What with all the baseless claims and nonsensical charges which are being thrown about these days I appreciate this statement acknowledging that sound reasoning and logical arguments are backed up with sources and evidence.
How to disagree well: 7 of the best and worst ways to argue
A classic essay defines different ways to disagree, from the worst to the best, with lessons that ring true in our divisive times.
bigthink.com
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 15,481
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..
How to disagree well: 7 of the best and worst ways to argue
A classic essay defines different ways to disagree, from the worst to the best, with lessons that ring true in our divisive times.
View attachment 56748
Best to always just start with the name-calling... ( J/K )
Clearly the CDC failing to have test kits available early to any MD / Doctor / hospital requesting one is a systematic failure. The USA deserves to be berated for this massive failure to plan.
The numbers are largely acknowledged to be the tip of the iceberg, CFR and R0 values, as well as the percentage of people who need ICU care are still clearly higher ( i.e. worse ) than the typical seasonal flu.
This will not be a fun run, and the "everything is fine crowd" will quickly be hiding soon.
Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
Yes, the "baseless claims and nonsensical charges" and the need for "sources and evidence" only applies if you think it might be more than a seasonal flu.
China always shuts their economy down for the seasonal flu. Most governments go into a frenzy for the flu. The Fed regularly drops half a point every time some people get the sniffles.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
This is one such claim whose credibility would benefit from citation and evidence.
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Jessie.slimer
BIT Beta Team
reserve/interest-rate-decrease-winners-losers/
www.wsj.com
www.cnn.com
www.foxbusiness.com
From both sides. Pretty big cut considering they were meeting soon anyway. Do they know something we don't? Numbers aren't in on either side on this one, but I'd agree with the others. Dismissing it as the flu at this point is irresponsible unless you know something that the world's governments do not.
Mockery and sarcasm towards someone else's scepticism could be taken as a form of "name calling", wouldn't you agree?
Analysis: Why the Fed Is Likely to Cut Again
The reasons the central bank reduced rates help explain why another cut is probably on the way.
www.wsj.com
The Fed might have to cut interest rates all the way to zero
The Federal Reserve's quest to avoid a coronavirus-fueled recession may just be getting started.
www.cnn.com
Fed makes emergency rate cut to combat coronavirus fallout
The central bank lowered its benchmark fed funds rate by 50 basis points, the largest reduction since the 2008 financial crisis.
www.foxbusiness.com
From both sides. Pretty big cut considering they were meeting soon anyway. Do they know something we don't? Numbers aren't in on either side on this one, but I'd agree with the others. Dismissing it as the flu at this point is irresponsible unless you know something that the world's governments do not.
Mockery and sarcasm towards someone else's scepticism could be taken as a form of "name calling", wouldn't you agree?
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mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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Due to China factories being shutdown, the supply chain for pharma has been disrupted, India has responded by:
( expect a "knock-on" effect as both India and China are major global sources for pharma API .. )
Government bans export of 26 pharma ingredients
TNN | Updated: Mar 4, 2020, 11:44 IST
NEW DELHI: The government on Tuesday banned the export of 26 advanced pharmaceuticals ingredients (APIs) or basic chemicals, including paracetamol, antibiotics such as metronidazole and neomycin, some vitamins and hormones due to the spread of Coronavirus and disruption in supplies from China, which is the epicentre of what is now a global health emergency.
Along with the curbs, the government also sought to allay fears of scarcity. “The committee (headed by Eshwara Reddy, joint drugs controller, Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation), in its report, has mentioned that the present stock-inhand of the APIs may be sufficient for two-to-three months to manufacture formulations and has also given certain recommendations. The committee further mentioned that there is no need to panic so far as drug security is concerned,” the department of pharmaceuticals said in a statement, adding that states have been asked to ensure adequate supply of basic chemicals.
The pharma department said most of the Chinese companies manufacturing pharmaceutical ingredients, excluding those in Hubei province, have now resumed operations partially and are expected to be fully operational by the end of March.
“There are no restrictions on the export of APIs from China. The Chinese companies are willing to export to India, however logistics sector has not yet resumed operations fully. It is observed from Port offices of CDSCO that APIs are being imported from China. As per the information received from port offices of CDSCO, 56 consignments of APIs are imported during 26th and 27th Feb 2020. Out of 56, 40 consignments are from China and rest are from countries other than China,” it said in a statement.
India imports nearly two thirds of its API requirement from China, which is seen to be more competitive than domestic producers, with several medicines identified where the government needs to ensure alternate sources of supply. In fact several of the chemicals whose exports were banned by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade figured on the list.
Read more at:
Government bans export of 26 pharma ingredients - Times of India
( expect a "knock-on" effect as both India and China are major global sources for pharma API .. )
Government bans export of 26 pharma ingredients
TNN | Updated: Mar 4, 2020, 11:44 IST
NEW DELHI: The government on Tuesday banned the export of 26 advanced pharmaceuticals ingredients (APIs) or basic chemicals, including paracetamol, antibiotics such as metronidazole and neomycin, some vitamins and hormones due to the spread of Coronavirus and disruption in supplies from China, which is the epicentre of what is now a global health emergency.
Along with the curbs, the government also sought to allay fears of scarcity. “The committee (headed by Eshwara Reddy, joint drugs controller, Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation), in its report, has mentioned that the present stock-inhand of the APIs may be sufficient for two-to-three months to manufacture formulations and has also given certain recommendations. The committee further mentioned that there is no need to panic so far as drug security is concerned,” the department of pharmaceuticals said in a statement, adding that states have been asked to ensure adequate supply of basic chemicals.
The pharma department said most of the Chinese companies manufacturing pharmaceutical ingredients, excluding those in Hubei province, have now resumed operations partially and are expected to be fully operational by the end of March.
“There are no restrictions on the export of APIs from China. The Chinese companies are willing to export to India, however logistics sector has not yet resumed operations fully. It is observed from Port offices of CDSCO that APIs are being imported from China. As per the information received from port offices of CDSCO, 56 consignments of APIs are imported during 26th and 27th Feb 2020. Out of 56, 40 consignments are from China and rest are from countries other than China,” it said in a statement.
India imports nearly two thirds of its API requirement from China, which is seen to be more competitive than domestic producers, with several medicines identified where the government needs to ensure alternate sources of supply. In fact several of the chemicals whose exports were banned by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade figured on the list.
Read more at:
Government bans export of 26 pharma ingredients - Times of India
Yes, and that is the elephant in the room no one is addressing. Even without the virus affecting anyone, the lack of product and material componets from asia Will have so many unimaginable consequences, life is about to get kicked back in time by a few decades
Q™
IPCT Contributor
You’ve misinterpreted what I wrote. That wasn’t “mockery” or ”sarcasm” in the least. Rather, being personally unaware (and surprized) that the Fed had previously dropped rates every time someone “got the sniffles” I suggested that a citation (showing that the Fed had previously cut rates when “someone got the sniffles“) was in order. So, no, I don’t agree.