Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?
- Thread starter erkme73
- Start date
Harvard Epidermiologist says their models are predicting 70% of the population to get infected.
Frankenscript
Known around here
- Dec 21, 2017
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All quiet on the Midwest front despite reports of Coronavirus in Indianapolis. Toilet paper stock is plentiful!
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My wife went down to the city to Sam's club the other day and they were sold out of everything cleaning related. No bleach, no toilet paper, no alcohol, etc. Told my buddy about it and he went to a different Sam's club 50 miles away and found it stocked full.
Seems to be hit and miss for now.
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
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Indeed @Murphy625
Areas with larger Chinese immigrants seem to be completely depleted. ( they've heard the stories from China / Hong Kong and are prepping like mad.. )
So far Toilet Paper seems easy enough to find - hand santizers and some cleaning supplies are significantly more challenging.
Masks none so far... those looking to resell probably have searched and gathered all they can find.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
Often heard in hard-core prep forums: "When the hard-times come, he with ass-wipe will be king."
Q™
IPCT Contributor
"He with anything useful will be king"
There are so many things that won't be available that we take for granted. Just a partial list.
Toilet paper
Women's hygiene stuff
Tooth paste
Good old soap.
Food
Disinfectants
Ammo
Fuel
And one of the biggest is antibiotics. During normal times, most people shower daily, so when they get a minor scratch or cut, they can usually ignore it. But when SHTF and no one is showering, those minor scrapes and cuts are going to become infected due to their skin being dirty from a lack of showers... and people will be dropping like flies.. and from the most minor of things.
I think your numbers are conservative, but we can roll with that....
Now imagine COVID19 coming back year after year like influenza.. That's not just 3.3 million deaths, that's 3.3 million year after year for the USA alone.
Our health care is going to have to be socialized in order to accommodate those numbers. COVID19 is going to bankrupt the healthcare industry.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
I certainly been caviler in my posts about this virus. I am a family of three, myself, my son, and my wife. If I had to vote I'd ask that, out of the three, the Lord take me. FuQ, I'm twice as big as most people...that aughta count for extra credit or sumptin'.
Frankenscript
Known around here
- Dec 21, 2017
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Q's projection doesn't factor in a few things:
Vaccines will become available; there is little doubt. High risk populations will likely get the first experimental ones and in a year or year and a half we will have a solid vaccine. There are unique features on this virus to raise antibodies to. If it mutates it will probably be less infectious.
Periodicity in infection rate. Let's see if it spreads as fast in the summer. Not saying summer will stop it but it is a race to vaccines or effective meds.
Rate of spread will slow as more infected people recover with some as yet to be determined level of resistance (there WILL be resistance to reinfection, we just don't know how much).
Generally speaking, for a while people will have better sanitation habits.
SARS/MERS drugs on the shelf will get rapid cash influx and eventually likely a tamiflu-like symptom reducer.
Method of caring for the ill will be better understood. This will happen quickly now that Western populations are getting sick.
Deployment of better tests will limit spread in populations with the means for testing like US. We are already doing better and we will have strong competency for testing US / CAN in two weeks.
Supply chain game theory just changed. Can't underestimate long term impact from this.
These are just a few things.
I seriously doubt more than 100,000 dead this year in US. Much smaller in subsequent years.
Even if China numbers are under reported by 10x, those people are packed and jammed in those cities with less access to good health care (although, draconian quarantine is unlikely in the US -- that will hurt us).
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Vaccines will become available; there is little doubt. High risk populations will likely get the first experimental ones and in a year or year and a half we will have a solid vaccine. There are unique features on this virus to raise antibodies to. If it mutates it will probably be less infectious.
Periodicity in infection rate. Let's see if it spreads as fast in the summer. Not saying summer will stop it but it is a race to vaccines or effective meds.
Rate of spread will slow as more infected people recover with some as yet to be determined level of resistance (there WILL be resistance to reinfection, we just don't know how much).
Generally speaking, for a while people will have better sanitation habits.
SARS/MERS drugs on the shelf will get rapid cash influx and eventually likely a tamiflu-like symptom reducer.
Method of caring for the ill will be better understood. This will happen quickly now that Western populations are getting sick.
Deployment of better tests will limit spread in populations with the means for testing like US. We are already doing better and we will have strong competency for testing US / CAN in two weeks.
Supply chain game theory just changed. Can't underestimate long term impact from this.
These are just a few things.
I seriously doubt more than 100,000 dead this year in US. Much smaller in subsequent years.
Even if China numbers are under reported by 10x, those people are packed and jammed in those cities with less access to good health care (although, draconian quarantine is unlikely in the US -- that will hurt us).
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That Timiflu works like a magic button.
My wife got sick two weeks ago, for three days we were fighting a 103+ fever and she finally got tired of it and went to the doctors office. They tested her and said it was Influenza B.
Gave her Tamiflu pills, she was feeling better within 12 hours, and by 24 hours, she was a new person.. Still a bit tired and recovering, but her symptoms were gone like magic.
That stuff works.
StratRider
Getting comfortable
I'm going opposite of the radical predictions - less than 100 dead in the US this year and certainly FAR less than the regular flu.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
Ssayer
BIT Beta Team
Interesting, even if anecdotal. Antivirals for influenza are mostly (some say only) effective when taken at the very onset of symptoms. It is quite possible that the virus burned out around the time she took the meds. Strong correlation, but might not be causation. I'm sure it doesn't matter to her so long as she saw quick improvement.
This cannot be overstated. 6 weeks ago, when it was becoming evident that this thing was a statistical certainty hit the whole globe, I bought about a grand in fish ABX from fishmox. Wife gave me a list of doses and types. Shelf life on most is 2 years - and none of the ones I ordered become toxic. Less effective, yes, but not dangerous. Obviously ABX are not to treat viral infections - but secondary bacterial (or primary bacterial) infections are very common after the body is weakened by a virus.
Amoxicillin 500mg. (100-200 tabs)
Keflex 500 mg (100-200 tabs)
Clindamycin 150mg (300-400 tabs)
Sulfa 800/160mg (100-200 tabs)
Metronidazole 500mg (30-60 tabs)
Doxy 100 mg (100-200 tabs)
Fluconazole 100 mg (30 tabs)
Ciprofloxacin 500 mg (100 tabs)
Azithromycin 250mg (60 tabs)
It is why a good family practice doctor won't prescribe ABX until a patient has been symptomatic for at least 7 days. The consensus being that most infections are viral, and most burn out within a week. Any longer, or particularly if there has been improvement followed by worsening symptoms, it is generally bacterial.
Wife could have written for all of these, but not in quantity where she felt comfortable. Ironically, most of these are darn near free at local pharmacies even without insurance. But, without a script, you have to get them from the fish suppliers. Not ideal, but I bet you'd be willing to gnaw off your own right arm to get some if the time comes. Dying of sepsis is no way to go.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
