Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[erkme73]

I live 9 miles from confirmed case in California. Hence, my keen interest in the virus.

How close do the rest of you live to an infected site?

Early on, we had a suspected case (college kid coming back from China) in Cookeville, TN (about an hour from us and where we go shopping regularly). The kid presented with classic flu symptoms and was isolated. Ultimately the TN Health Dept confirmed it was a negative test (from CDC). And I am inclined to believe that public report.

However, what added to my 'concern bucket' was that a friend of the family works in the medical transcription industry, and one of her underlings told her that they handled the information regarding that patient - and it was POSITIVE. I could not rectify the differences (i.e. how could physicians and nurses go along with such a conspiracy, or how could the CDC allow an infected person to be released from quarantine), so I opted to believe the official report - assuming instead the friend's contact was mistaken or was trying to deliberately stir the pot. If I'm completely honest, I'm not entirely sure what to believe now, though.

In any case, as transmission from person-to-person is clearly happening at an alarming rate (see the cruise ship numbers) it's pretty clear that medical staff intake questions about recent travel to China (or contact with someone who has recently traveled to China) may no longer be an adequate harbinger of risk.

 

[c hris527]

Time is short if you want to prepare. I've changed focus from trying to avoid it (still plan A) to trying to survive it. In addition to my stockpile of supplies that will hopefully prevent my family from having to leave the house for at least 3 months (abx, fuel, food/water, cash, etc), I am now stocking up on medical supplies (IV catheter kits, lactated ringers/saline bags, O2 generator/tanks, pain meds, etc). The idea being that given enough time and opportunity, everyone will likely get infected. If it happens early and you're at the front of the line, you may come through just fine with good health care from local hospitals. But if you get hit during a wave where the hospitals are overwhelmed, your options will be very limited. Having enough supplies on hand to help support someone with palliative care may make the difference.

Sounds paranoid, but it is still possible to obtain these things NOW. In another week or two, probably not. If your concern level is starting to follow the projected infection death rate curves, get off the forum, and start shopping. None of the things I've purchased are crazy expensive or have a dedicated use. They can all be consumed over time, donated, or disposed of with minimal effort and expense. They are, in effect, cheap insurance. I'd rather been seen as crazy/paranoid and have options, than be a victim of my own unpreparedness should SHTF (an almost statistical certainty now).

I'm as about as prepped as I'm going to be, so far so good in NY here and so far secondary infections here in the states seems very low if you want to believe what we are being told. I take that as good news.

 

[c hris527]

Sensationalization, spin, whatever (as you noted) has dick to do with how viruses work. Anyone who makes absurd statements like "SouthernYankee" that equate the seriousness of a virus outbreak with the belief that news media is not to be trusted... well I've already made my thoughts on that kind of mentality clear.

As Rebelx pointed out most people don't have the expertise to understand but what is really a shame is how many people COULD understand but don't because listening to expertise somehow threatens their political or philosophical viewpoint. I usually don't post about this kind of stuff but that shit truly pisses me right the fuck off.

If something serious has occurred a "responsible" person won't come to an Internet forum and tell everyone "it's coming from the news therefore it's overblown and don't worry" is an idiot imo. A responsible person would research the topic and understand it before opening their keyboard.

Of course we know the likelihood of that happening.

@SouthernYankee is probley basing his conclusion on the history of overblown past death and doom viruses and events, Remember Sars? Remember Y2K? ,We were all going to get wiped out and die according to how the press was reporting those. I do not blame him for thinking the way he does and a LOT of people DO think that way. He has a right to his opinion as do you. To come swinging at him like that shows something triggered you and your mention of politics and use of a lot of profanity that you had to throw in there. I do not know your credentials but you must be a well educated MD or Medical virologist to understand these thing things better than others. That being said, I personally still think this Virus is dangerous but not too concerned about a mass pandemic here in the states, seems like we are in a holding pattern right now. What are you thinking ?

 

[TonyR]

A cam shipped from China could contain a dormant virus. Porch pirates are worried, thefts are down.

Really, who wants a cam that infects their entire home camera security system? Will the virus try to "call home" to China, assuming your camera system allows outbound internet messages?

I'm upgrading my VPN to a "Virus Protected Network". Norton is releasing an updated virus detection package. Dahua is enhancing IVS to include Infectious Virus Sensing

I'm also putting white face masks over all my cams, to block the virus if it becomes airborne.

Reminds me of when I told our office secretary something that asked me about computer viruses. In jest I pointed to the clear poly envelope that she had removed from a 3.5" floppy she was about to stick in her PC's drive (this was circa 1985). I told her to protect her PC to leave the poly envelope on the disk like a condom to keep from infecting her PC. In my mind it was clear I was joking and I went out the door.

I returned about an hour later from a field trouble call and the county's IT guy was at her desk, bent over, mumbling and peering into the drive's slot with a flashlight and probing it with tweezers. It never occurred to me what was the issue until he answered my question about what happened...he said "...she stuck the floppy in there with the @#$% envelope still on it and it chewed it all up and now the #$%@ thing's stuck in there!!"

It was all I could do to hold my hand over my mouth and make it out of the room before I let out a the biggest belly laugh ever. From that point on I knew better than to joke with her, she was a nice as could be but she wasn't the brightest bulb in the chandelier, if you get my drift.

 

[Murphy625]

@SouthernYankee is probley basing his conclusion on the history of overblown past death and doom viruses and events, Remember Sars? Remember Y2K? ,We were all going to get wiped out and die according to how the press was reporting those. I do not blame him for thinking the way he does and a LOT of people DO think that way. He has a right to his opinion as do you. To come swinging at him like that shows something triggered you and your mention of politics and use of a lot of profanity that you had to throw in there. I do not know your credentials but you must be a well educated MD or Medical virologist to understand these thing things better than others. That being said, I personally still think this Virus is dangerous but not too concerned about a mass pandemic here in the states, seems like we are in a holding pattern right now. What are you thinking ?

If the media and the government don't alert us to the dangers, we accuse them of a coverup.. and when they do alert us, we accuse them of over blowing the situation.

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

I'm well prepared, far better than most, and even better than most who are preppers... I'm prepared because I view it as an insurance policy. Most likely, nothing will happen and if something does happen, it will be a slow gradual thing that takes place over a decade like Venezuela, not some nuclear holocaust or zombie outbreak.

Everyone should have at least 6 - 12 months of food, water filtration, and basic medical supplies.

 

[sebastiantombs]

I am not a virologist, Doctor or researcher. Didn't ever play one on TV and didn't stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. So take this for what it's worth.

Yeah, the media tends to hype anything they think will get them noticed more, without a doubt, and will stretch the truth (outright lie at times) to get a "scoop". In this case I think they're being a little more conservative and are down playing things a little. I'm hopeful that it won't turn into a global pandemic but given the record of the Chinese government and some of the facts that are leaking out combined with their reticence in accepting help from the CDC (maybe afraid of the real numbers getting out?) I find it hard to trust anything I'm seeing as reflecting the true levels of infection and transmission abilities of this strain of Corona.

Hoping it doesn't get too bad is not going to help if it does. Being prepared if it does is only good judgement, IMHO.

 

[Arjun]

I have six tubs of whey powder, does that count?

If the media and the government don't alert us to the dangers, we accuse them of a coverup.. and when they do alert us, we accuse them of over blowing the situation.

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

I'm well prepared, far better than most, and even better than most who are preppers... I'm prepared because I view it as an insurance policy. Most likely, nothing will happen and if something does happen, it will be a slow gradual thing that takes place over a decade like Venezuela, not some nuclear holocaust or zombie outbreak.

Everyone should have at least 6 - 12 months of food, water filtration, and basic medical supplies.

 

[Murphy625]

I have six tubs of whey powder, does that count?

Why not? You might not be happy, but you'll be alive... also depends on how big the tubs are. Instead of counting volume, count calories. We store a bit north of 6 million based on 2500 per day per person.

 

[Arjun]

4.8lbs each to be exact, lol How about them oranges?

Why not? You might not be happy, but you'll be alive... also depends on how big the tubs are. Instead of counting volume, count calories. We store a bit north of 6 million based on 2500 per day per person.

 

[Murphy625]

4.8lbs each to be exact, lol How about them oranges?

That's not even remotely enough. Count the calories and store at least 500,000 for each person in the home. Since all you have is protein, go get a few hundred pounds of rice to add some carbs. Its stupid cheap and will last for 30 years if you store it correctly.

 

[sebastiantombs]

Oatmeal is another great carb that will store for a loooong time and keeps you feeling satisfied longer than rice.

 

[SantiagoDraco]

@SouthernYankee is probley basing his conclusion on the history of overblown past death and doom viruses and events, Remember Sars? Remember Y2K? ,We were all going to get wiped out and die according to how the press was reporting those. I do not blame him for thinking the way he does and a LOT of people DO think that way. He has a right to his opinion as do you. To come swinging at him like that shows something triggered you and your mention of politics and use of a lot of profanity that you had to throw in there. I do not know your credentials but you must be a well educated MD or Medical virologist to understand these thing things better than others. That being said, I personally still think this Virus is dangerous but not too concerned about a mass pandemic here in the states, seems like we are in a holding pattern right now. What are you thinking ?

That's exactly my point. You don't have to be a "registered" MD or "medical virologist" to understand how these things work. Credentials in a field come from knowledge. That knowledge is generally available to anyone nowadays and it doesn't take a degree to take the time to understand how viruses spread and the potential risk. Or to understand the math around the rate of potential propagation of said viruses if left unchecked. 2 x2=4. 4x4=16, 16x16=256. You get the idea. Fortunately viruses spread can be controlled and the math is different but similar. Incubation periods and the lifespan of the virus outside of a host are factors. Contagion vectors are also factors. Medical science has a solid grasp on these things and we know what to do to work to contain outbreaks. Unfortunately when dealing with a country like China it's difficult because sharing of information is limited and protecting the "State" is their main priority. Sad but true.

When someone asks "should I be worried" the answer is "don't worry about it but you should educate yourself and be prepared". The answer "it's overblown media hype" however is a dangerous trend as not all of the media has a hidden agenda to promote a political agenda first and foremost.

If you check the WHO website and review the situation reports you'll see the spread rates. On Jan 21, 2020 there were 282 confirmed cases world-wide and 6 deaths. On Feb 6 there were 28,276 confirmed cases and 565 deaths. That is triple the Sars numbers in 16 days where the Sars numbers were over 8-9 months. Certainly many of those were not originally reported on the 21st of January but the virus is spreading quickly. The good news is that measures are being put into place to detect and respond. Sars on the other hand killed roughly 700 people over a 8-9 month period. Sars is nothing compared to the Coronavirus. It's not an apt comparison. It take 5 minutes to make this determination without having any background in medicine or epidemiology.

As for the profanity, point taken. Our culture right now is too full of those who profess to be experts but have taken no time to understand what they profess to understand and yeah it's something that triggers me. Apologies.

 

[Arjun]

Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

www.who.int

Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.

Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing

 

[mat200]

..
As for the profanity, point taken. Our culture right now is too full of those who profess to be experts but have taken no time to understand what they profess to understand and yeah it's something that triggers me. Apologies.

Indeed good to have an apology here as I enjoy seeing both @SouthernYankee and @SantiagoDraco participate in the various discussions here.

 

[Arjun]

Common sense suggests that people with the Flu should stay home, not go to work, not go to school, not go to any public places. The other day I was in direct contact with an individual that had the flu (on her second day) and she was laughing about it hastily. That following night I had a headache, post-nasal drip, and sore throat. I'm getting better but this required getting more sleep and drinking plenty of fluids in the last 48 hours. I've never gotten the flu shot. Even if an infected individual wears a mask it still increases the threat of acquiring the infection from that individual. There have been dozens of patients walking into hospital settings worried over the Coronavirus that it just ended up being the seasonal flu and its accompanying symptoms.

 

[Alan2000]

Stories like this, which are all so common, is a reason there is so much apathy by the general public in the USA about this virus:

Five hospitalized as coronavirus quarantine begins in San Diego

Five hospitalized as coronavirus quarantine begins in San Diego

A charter plane with 167 people from China landed Wednesday at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, and passengers have begun a 14-day quarantine.

www.latimes.com

I sent the following email to the author:

I was disappointed to read yet another article in the general media that misrepresents or downplays the risk of this virus.

Your story says:

"While waiting out their 14 days, the CDC has directed those inside the cordon to stay six feet away from each other if they’re concerned about infection, though that precaution is not considered essential because it generally takes prolonged exposure for viral transmission and anyone with preliminary symptoms would be removed to a hospital immediately.”

It is already common knowledge that during the incubation period of up to 2 weeks, infected people can be shedding the virus. Therefore, the concern about being in the proximity of exposed people, albeit with no symptoms, is a very valid concern.

Removing a person immediately to a hospital who is showing “preliminary symptoms” is good, but out it is of little value to the others who have been exposed to the viruses shed by that person for days before the infection signs appeared.

What is your data to say "it generally takes prolonged exposure for viral transmission”? We already know this virus is far more infectious than SARS and the full extent of transmissibility is still under investigation. For you to make it sound like a person has to be in “prolonged” contact is extremely irresponsible. All it takes is touching a surface with a droplet of fluid from an infected person and then touching the mouth, nose, or eyes to catch the novel coronavirus. That is hardly “prolonged exposure”.

This type of journalism is what creates apathy and misinformation about what may become a very serious health crisis in the United States.

Best regards,
Alan

 

[sebastiantombs]

Like I said, the media is downplaying this, probably, on instructions from somewhere "further up the food chain".

 

[Angel_Eater]

Stories like this, which are all so common, is a reason there is so much apathy by the general public in the USA about this virus:

Five hospitalized as coronavirus quarantine begins in San Diego

Five hospitalized as coronavirus quarantine begins in San Diego

A charter plane with 167 people from China landed Wednesday at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, and passengers have begun a 14-day quarantine.

www.latimes.com

I sent the following email to the author:

I was disappointed to read yet another article in the general media that misrepresents or downplays the risk of this virus.

Your story says:

"While waiting out their 14 days, the CDC has directed those inside the cordon to stay six feet away from each other if they’re concerned about infection, though that precaution is not considered essential because it generally takes prolonged exposure for viral transmission and anyone with preliminary symptoms would be removed to a hospital immediately.”

It is already common knowledge that during the incubation period of up to 2 weeks, infected people can be shedding the virus. Therefore, the concern about being in the proximity of exposed people, albeit with no symptoms, is a very valid concern.

Removing a person immediately to a hospital who is showing “preliminary symptoms” is good, but out it is of little value to the others who have been exposed to the viruses shed by that person for days before the infection signs appeared.

What is your data to say "it generally takes prolonged exposure for viral transmission”? We already know this virus is far more infectious than SARS and the full extent of transmissibility is still under investigation. For you to make it sound like a person has to be in “prolonged” contact is extremely irresponsible. All it takes is touching a surface with a droplet of fluid from an infected person and then touching the mouth, nose, or eyes to catch the novel coronavirus. That is hardly “prolonged exposure”.

This type of journalism is what creates apathy and misinformation about what may become a very serious health crisis in the United States.

Best regards,
Alan

Wonderful, basic idiots that can't even follow regular hospital procedures now have mindless "higher ups" putting "good" faith trust in their abilities to handle this appropriately. They are treating it like a "normal" virus because after all, that's how this one is behaving (with the little anyone knows)?

They should keep the infected all together, and under the care and facilities of the CDC.

Welcome to Chi-merica, Mr Novel.

Never hoped I've been more wrong in my life, but we're screwed.

 

[Frankenscript]

Like I said, the media is downplaying this, probably, on instructions from somewhere "further up the food chain".

I very much doubt that word from on high is causing media to downplay anything. Frankly news agencies thrive on playing it up and in the US we have a pretty free press. May not last long, but today press can and does say whatever they want, backed up by facts or not.

As awful as it is in China, which will get worse before better, there's no indication this is going to be too big a deal here anymore than an awful Ebola outbreak tends to be on that continent. Early containment seems to be working, and despite long incubation periods, all indicators are that asymptomatic transmission is the exception rather than the rule. Our health system has a relatively large amount of slack in it and we are gearing up for targeted responses on a local level.

We need to stay vigilant, prepared, and wary. But let's curb the tinfoil hat theories. We don't need them to explain what's going on.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

 

[sebastiantombs]

I'm not advocating tin foil hat theories. I have sources in China, in the effected areas, and they paint a very different picture. The example of the doctor that warned his colleagues is enough evidence, at least to me, that the Chinese government is not being particularly truthful in their announcements. In fact I suspect that they are deliberately lying in an attempt to protect their own economy. If we don't have "real" numbers from the source, how can any solid conclusions be made? Their major manufacturing area is already on lock down with no end in sight. Their economy is already in a pretty substantial downturn and this is only making it worse.

My point about the media is, likely, true. Since they always play everything up to jin their own ratings why else would they be downplaying, or keeping their statements anti-inflammatory, in this case? That is totally against their own interests.

What I am trying to get across is that their is no, real, solid, information available from the source. That is very troubling by itself. Add in the almost "ho hum another little virus" attitude in the media and it should have red flags flying for everyone.