Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Murphy625

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Coronavirus Cases:
27,649
of which 3,223 (12%)
in critical condition

Deaths:
564

Recovered:
1,153
 

mat200

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tencent leaked some info

According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
View attachment 55162
Tencent screengrab as of late Feb 1, showing far higher infections.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day.
View attachment 55163
...
This led many in the mainland to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.
In short, two camps have emerged: one, the more optimistic, speculates that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. The other, far more pessimistically inclined, believes that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers, as "the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic."
Holy smokes!

24.6/154 = 0.16 or 16% death rate... that's crazy.

( note - the official numbers are clearly significantly off )

According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
 

DRZmaui

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This week I cut my vacation short in Asia. Mostly due to my concerns about the Corona Virus. A few friends thought I might have over reacted. But they were not there, and didn’t see and experience what going on there. Started on January 13th. When arriving in Asia, first thing I noticed all the masks with airport personnel and thermal cameras screening passengers. Know then something was up. Nothing yet was in the news, had been in Asia during this SARS outbreak. Same precautions where be taken. Red flag!
Had the opportunity to talk with expats from China. Stories I heard were very sobering. A long-term expat from Spain mentioned, “if China has to sacrifice 40 million people to keep the Republic together, they will do it without hesitation”. The day later, it was announced china building instant hospitals, locking down 40 million, suppressing civil liberties, and broadcasting conflicting accounts of status of the epidemic. Right then, decided to go. At the time was in Burma, exposed to many Chinese tourist (Many from Wuhan). Our original plans were to travel on to other Asian destinations. Decided it was time to get out of dodge. No regrets what so ever.
Since coming back, trying to figure out my next move. I’m semiretired. Work occasionally as a travel nurse. An observation: Just this week, demand for Travel nurses is syrocking, almost triple for this time of year. Maybe no one is taking assignment’s (due to fear of the epidemic?), or hospitals are trying to pad their staffing for an expectant crisis?
Another observation, I’ve been trying to access live cams in Shanghai and Beijing. Want to see what going on there. Are people still in public, traffic? Can’t find any. Seems most site have been shut down (Government censorship?).

As for myself, laying low for 2 weeks. Hoping that I didn't catch the virus. My flight out was thru Hong Kong. Did notice many Mainland Chinese boarding our flight.

I got a real bad feeling about this. My intuition has saved my bacon many times. As most of you, still watching, waiting.
Just thought I share
 

mat200

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Pandemic here we come....

This is a case which is illustrative that far more people from China were infected prior to Jan 18th than the official Chinese government numbers indicate.


3 new coronavirus cases in South Korea; 2 men had travelled to Singapore for conference
05 Feb 2020 12:12PM (Updated: 05 Feb 2020 10:56PM)

SEOUL: South Korea has confirmed three more cases of the novel coronavirus, including two men who had attended a business meeting at Singapore's Grand Hyatt hotel last month.

South Korean media reported that they were in Singapore for work and came into contact with a Malaysian who has since tested positive for the virus.
..
conference Jan 18 to Jan 24
..
Malaysian: developed symptoms on Jan 29 and subsequently tested positive for the novel coronavirus on Feb 3

ref: 3 new coronavirus cases in South Korea; 2 men had travelled to Singapore for conference
 

erkme73

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It is interesting to read the wide spectrum of reactions in these last six pages. My primary concern is what will happen when (no longer a question of "if", I fear) this gets to the states, how will our government react? How will people handle the stress?

Imagine if the your local town is overrun by either the virus, or the panic it causes. When will people pull their kids from schools? When will workers refuse to go to work? Before or after quarantines go into effect?

It's crazy to think this way, but I think it's even crazier NOT to plan for it. Our entire retail industry is built on the Japanese Kanban just-in-time fulfillment approach. No longer can you ask an associate to "check in the back for more widgets"... everything you see is what is (or is not) on the shelf.

One of the Peak Prosperity videos from a day or two ago had an interesting observation about major events. If you start to warn people, at first you are ridiculed (conspiracy theory). Then you're targeted with aggression (censored, deplatformed), and finally, when the facts are undeniable, those that criticized claim it was always self-evident... Or something like that. We are rapidly approaching that final stage. And when that happens, virus or not, people will panic like they do when there's a hurricane a week out...

Be ready.
 

Rebelx

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Looks like human to human transmission rates are lowish. Needs about 15 minutes of contact for it to pass on. I am positive about reasonable containment outside of China.
 

erkme73

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Did us see the numbers on the carnival Cruise ship? 3000+ people. So far of the 31 tests that have come back 10 are positive... Edited to add: 20 are now positive.
 
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mat200

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So challenging to really get good numbers from the CCP ( Chinese Communist Party ).

Reviewing supply chain info - ( aka all roads lead to China - aka "one Belt and Road to control them all" ) it is clear that another 1-2 weeks of China being shutdown will result in significant economic consequences. If the consumer does not notice, it will be thanks to some heavy lifting by the folks running the supply chain.

Thankfully as Rebelx noted this does not seem to be a crazy R value like some other virii ( example measles R estimated 12-18+ )

Wondering if this virus is now going to be around forever....
 

Rebelx

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Wondering if this virus is now going to be around forever....
In the original vector yes. In humans, hopefully we can vaccinate against it. I am hoping the fear will give us the courage to find a good vaccine for general corona viruses, which would be very useful. Fear is the only stick that works to get things done.
 

Rebelx

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@mat200 , I saw those numbers. I have a friend who is a public health physician (he was the chief medical officer in our state a few years ago) so I get a briefing regularly. If you look in the WHO website, he did the video intro to Corona virus. ;)
 

Murphy625

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Holy smokes!

24.6/154 = 0.16 or 16% death rate... that's crazy.

( note - the official numbers are clearly significantly off )

According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Your numbers don't make sense. We have three figures to work from : 1) Total infected 2) Total Dead 3) Total Recovered.

Dead and recovered are absolute numbers, Total Infected is an unknown because we don't know what the outcome will be.

The kill rate formula should be (Total Dead + Total Recovered) / Total Dead

As it currently stands, 565 Dead + 1173 Recovered = 1738 known outcomes / 565 = 32.5% Death Rate.

It is currently falling fast. Death rate a few days ago was over 50%

Someone in the media or something used the total infected number to come up with a death rate.... because it looks better that way.. but its stupid because if you want to lower the death rate, all you have to do is infect more people.. makes no sense.
 

Alan2000

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Keep in mind the the exponential novel coronavirus spread is when China is practically shutdown for their new year holiday and people are staying at home due to the virus. About 80% of their economy is shut down due to holiday and the virus. Soon everyone will be going back to work or China and the world economy collapses.

This link is video of Beijing subway now nearly deserted. It is usually always busy.

This link is video of typical subway in Beijing with people getting to work. Think of what this will do to infection rate!

Good article about economic impact of virus:

Full Lancet article that that above makes reference to if you want some real dry reading. In a nutshell, as of January 28, in Wuhan alone the number of infected people should be about 75,815. The official number reported by China government for infections for all of mainland China as of 01/28 was 4,610. To be a fare, China authorities may have no idea what the infection rate is because the hospitals are swamped and sending people home to recover or die alone.
 

Alan2000

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Your numbers don't make sense. We have three figures to work from : 1) Total infected 2) Total Dead 3) Total Recovered.

Dead and recovered are absolute numbers, Total Infected is an unknown because we don't know what the outcome will be.

The kill rate formula should be (Total Dead + Total Recovered) / Total Dead

As it currently stands, 565 Dead + 1173 Recovered = 1738 known outcomes / 565 = 32.5% Death Rate.

It is currently falling fast. Death rate a few days ago was over 50%

Someone in the media or something used the total infected number to come up with a death rate.... because it looks better that way.. but its stupid because if you want to lower the death rate, all you have to do is infect more people.. makes no sense.
@Murphy625 - The CFR (case fatality rate) is not calculated by dividing deaths by recovered. The CFR is deaths/infections. As of today:
  • Govt stats 565 dead / 28,274 infected = CFR 2%
  • Tencent data (I have no idea if this is real or bogus, but the Tencent infection rate is much closer to Lancet # than govt reported #) 24,589 deaths / 154,023 infections = 16% CFR.

The Tencent CFR of 16% seems too high to me. If it is that high, the world is in big trouble.

Early on in an epidemic, the CFR is not accurate, specially with a long incubation time because the CFR doesn't factor in the time of onset of the disease until the time of death. For example, if we know a new virus kills exactly 50% of people on exactly the 10th day of infection, and 1000 people are infected today, on the fifth day after they are infected the new virus CFR is 0% (0/1000). That is very misleading. On the 10th day when 500 die the CFR is 50% (500/1000).

While we still have a lot of people in the 2 week incubation period and 10 day or so death period, the CFR is going to be off a bit. As more time passes the time of onset to death becomes irrelevant. CFR can also go down as more infection data becomes known. For example, a year from now we if we find out that a ton of people got the coronavirus, but had no symptoms or only mild cold symptoms, the CFR will go down as the number of known deaths is divided by the larger number of known infections that occurred and were not initially reported/known.
 

Murphy625

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@Murphy625 - The CFR (case fatality rate) is not calculated by dividing deaths by recovered. The CFR is deaths/infections. As of today:
  • Govt stats 565 dead / 28,274 infected = CFR 2%
  • Tencent data (I have no idea if this is real or bogus, but the Tencent infection rate is much closer to Lancet # than govt reported #) 24,589 deaths / 154,023 infections = 16% CFR.

The Tencent CFR of 16% seems too high to me. If it is that high, the world is in big trouble.

Early on in an epidemic, the CFR is not accurate, specially with a long incubation time because the CFR doesn't factor in the time of onset of the disease until the time of death. For example, if we know a new virus kills exactly 50% of people on exactly the 10th day of infection, and 1000 people are infected today, on the fifth day after they are infected the new virus CFR is 0% (0/1000). That is very misleading. On the 10th day when 500 die the CFR is 50% (500/1000).

While we still have a lot of people in the 2 week incubation period and 10 day or so death period, the CFR is going to be off a bit. As more time passes the time of onset to death becomes irrelevant. CFR can also go down as more infection data becomes known. For example, a year from now we if we find out that a ton of people got the coronavirus, but had no symptoms or only mild cold symptoms, the CFR will go down as the number of known deaths is divided by the larger number of known infections that occurred and were not initially reported/known.
So if we want to lower the CFR to make the virus less scary, all we need to do is add more people to the infected list? LOL. Does that make sense to you?
 

Frankenscript

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The CFR in cases like this starts out high because a lot of people die due to pneumonia or other complications before the health system gets a handle on the situation, and because infection rate is often underestimated before good diagnostics are commonly available.

It is certainly there will be huge numbers of dead in China that will eventually become known, but you can't compare the initial actual death rate in China with what will happen elsewhere in the world now that everybody is on alert. My estimation is that if we have a spike of cases in the US, and these cases get prompt medical attention, the death rate on that cohort will be a few times that of seasonal flu.

The real problem on the world stage is if China remains closed for business for a protracted period of time.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Alan2000

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@Frankenscript - I don't know if the CFR on this one will follow that path as closely as typical but generally agree with you. Because this one is so contagious, and spreading so fast, I think it can disrupt health care systems to the point that "prompt medical attention" is no longer is available. Looking at videos and photos of Wuhan hospitals they are by no means 3rd world, and rival or better some USA hospitals with their modern equipment. But being packed like sardines in China is something that in most parts of USA is not the case. So spread may be more manageable here. What is scary is that Africa has no reported cases yet. Africa has a lot of business with China it is a sure bet there are infection there now. The fact none have been identified makes me think once it is identified there it will have already spread over a large area.

On a sad note today, the whisleblower doctor in China that was diagnosed with he virus on 01/30 has died today. He was 34 yrs old. Unk if any underlying conditions that contributed to death.

Some virus trivia for ipcamtalk members... The SARS coronavirus could live up to 28 days on stainless steel surfaces indoors in cooler temperatures. It is suspected that this virus should have similar traits. I found that surprising. (Source, Dr. Campbell - His videos are very simple in layman terms from reliable sources.)
 

mat200

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Very concerning considering

Facts:
He was 34 years old.
He had better treatment in the hospital than many others.


FYI - for those who do not trust fox, here is the bbc article on this:

"A Chinese doctor who tried to issue the first warnings about the deadly coronavirus outbreak has died of the infection, Chinese media say.

Li Wenliang was working as an ophthalmologist at Wuhan Central Hospital when he sent out a warning to fellow medics on 30 December.

Police then visited him to tell him to stop, as authorities tried to keep the news under wraps.
..

The ophthalmologist posted his story on the Weibo site from a hospital bed a month after sending out his initial warning.

Dr Li, 34, had noticed seven cases of a virus that he thought looked like Sars - the virus that led to a global epidemic in 2003.

On 30 December he sent a message to fellow doctors in a chat group warning them to wear protective clothing to avoid infection.

Four days later he was summoned to the Public Security Bureau where he was told to sign a letter. In the letter he was accused of "making false comments" that had "severely disturbed the social order".

He was one of eight people who police said were being investigated for "spreading rumours"

.. "


 
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Alan2000

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Li's pregnant wife is also reported to be infected. : (

Weird story out that due to public anger story changed to say he is on life support. I have not fact checked this...
Life_support.png
 
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