It is just the flu just much more highly contagious there’s no evidence that suggests the death rate is higher than the flu because we don’t know how many people actually have this. The difference between this and the flu is that the panic has shut everyone down.
Any statement that starts with "It's just the flu..." is a disservice. Sure, it's a respiratory virus just as influenza is, but this thing ISN'T the flu. It's novel, and we don't have any endemic resistance to it. When a new "flu" goes around, some of them are much like the other flus that we've been exposed to, and others are pretty different, but they still share a lot of similarities which means that as a population we have a certain level of built up resistance, and even when we come down with the disease we usually have very mild cases compared to what happens when something new comes along.
While I agree that we don't know the actual death rate because the "CFR" is an inflated measure based on diagnosed cases, which misses a lot of nonclinical cases, we do know that it is a) more contagious and b) even the best estimates of the actual death rate make it much more dangerous than "the flu" (of course, the flu varies in intensity, but COVID-19 is likely to be an order of magnitude more dangerous, case-by-case). In one chart, this is what people should be concerned about (source: today's
worldometers.info for the US):
Yesterday's new deaths per day were 247. A week before that, 56, a week before that, 3.
We have JUST started the social distancing thing which means we've probably got another 3-4 weeks of exponential growth in DEATHS, doubling every three days, before it starts tapering off. So, next Wednesday, if the math holds, we will have around a thousand deaths per day, and the week after that, more than four thousand per day, here in the US.
A typical flu season might be around 100 deaths per day, a really bad flu season maybe around 250 per day at its height. So, this week we crossed the threshold in terms of deaths per day compared to what a flu season does. Our health care system is designed to JUST BARELY manage a bad flu season. This year, the flu is mid-range. Not mild, not severe, from what I understand. So we have a LITTLE BIT of extra capacity. That is rapidly going away as the cases flood into the hospitals.
The virus doesn't care about our politics, and this isn't just a "US over-reaction" like some narratives I see. The world has shut down for good reasons, and here in the US it probably needs to stay that way all the way through April, but as Fauci says, the virus makes the timelines, not the politicians. It sucks, but if we let up too soon, we're going to have to start all over again.
This isn't the flu. It's a dangerous novel respiratory infection spreading like wildfire throughout an immunologically naive population, and its specific effects bring on severe pneumonia and other co-infections. Most cases are mild, sure, but a lot of them aren't.