Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

bigredfish

Known around here
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
17,009
Reaction score
47,454
Location
Floriduh
Uh oh, big pharma is going to have to discredit the Univ of Pittsburgh now..
Scientists Isolate Coronavirus Antibody In Breakthrough That Could Lead To New Treatment

And for those who are always looking for an excuse to bash ZE (who's generally right more times in a day than CNN in a month) , here's the attribution
Pitt Scientists Discover Tiny Antibody Component That is Highly Effective in Preventing and Treating SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Animal Models
 

Arjun

Known around here
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
9,015
Reaction score
11,032
Location
USA
I think the problem is how and where to extrapolate verifiable and valid data :(

Right and the Wuflu raced to #3 in just 6 months. Give it a full year like those and it may be vying for #2 or #1 of all causes. That’s not insignificant.
 

Arjun

Known around here
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
9,015
Reaction score
11,032
Location
USA
Anyone inclined to watch South Park's Pandemic Special?

 

Arjun

Known around here
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
9,015
Reaction score
11,032
Location
USA
Good thing social distancing is the norm these days; these two probably married after this video went viral

 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Sounds logical, but why didn't this work in China or any of the other places with draconian lockdowns?
Hi Jessie, two questions for you:

What do you mean about it not working in China? China's lockdown policies were brutal, but very effective. While many of us (on all ends of the political spectrum) don't believe the numbers for China we see in Worldometers and other aggregators, there's a variety of opinions on what the real numbers really were. After reading many sources over the course of the pandemic and having watched internal logistics transit reports from early this year (internal proprietary info of my company) and discussions with colleagues living in various places in China I fall into the camp of "it was probably 5-10x as bad as reported" versus other folks who think it was less bad than that (2-3 x as bad as reported) and still others who thought it was much much worse. Pick whatever number works for you, but what's clear is that by early March they had tamped it down and people stopped dying there for the most part. Once they figured out what they were dealing with, they crushed it. The small sporadic outbreaks that followed were handled aggressively and very effectively.

The other question is: you've repeatedly suggested (and I'm paraphrasing) that the virus might have already spread widely throughout the population in the US and that to a large extent whoever was going to get it already has, more or less. Other folks I know on other forums have also started suggesting this in the last week. I'm curious to know where this idea comes from. While it's demonstrably untrue in that many sources of data can be used to disprove the idea (some of which I covered yesterday), usually these theories can be tracked down to a particular source with a particular agenda. I haven't found such a source for this idea so I'm curious to know where it comes from.

Thanks. Have a great day; I'm swamped today so won't bug you guys much.
 

Jessie.slimer

BIT Beta Team
Joined
Aug 23, 2019
Messages
1,627
Reaction score
4,657
Location
Illinois
Hi Jessie, two questions for you:

What do you mean about it not working in China? China's lockdown policies were brutal, but very effective. While many of us (on all ends of the political spectrum) don't believe the numbers for China we see in Worldometers and other aggregators, there's a variety of opinions on what the real numbers really were. After reading many sources over the course of the pandemic and having watched internal logistics transit reports from early this year (internal proprietary info of my company) and discussions with colleagues living in various places in China I fall into the camp of "it was probably 5-10x as bad as reported" versus other folks who think it was less bad than that (2-3 x as bad as reported) and still others who thought it was much much worse. Pick whatever number works for you, but what's clear is that by early March they had tamped it down and people stopped dying there for the most part. Once they figured out what they were dealing with, they crushed it. The small sporadic outbreaks that followed were handled aggressively and very effectively.

The other question is: you've repeatedly suggested (and I'm paraphrasing) that the virus might have already spread widely throughout the population in the US and that to a large extent whoever was going to get it already has, more or less. Other folks I know on other forums have also started suggesting this in the last week. I'm curious to know where this idea comes from. While it's demonstrably untrue in that many sources of data can be used to disprove the idea (some of which I covered yesterday), usually these theories can be tracked down to a particular source with a particular agenda. I haven't found such a source for this idea so I'm curious to know where it comes from.

Thanks. Have a great day; I'm swamped today so won't bug you guys much.
I say that because Sweeden went from large infections/death per capita to a sudden drop to nearly nothing, almost instantly. We saw this in NY as well, and they didn't change their lockdown policies much. In fact, they loosened them as the numbers got better, yet their deaths were not as much as during the peak. China was on draconian lockdown from the beginning and for months: tracing, testing, everything you said, and their numbers were bad until all of a sudden....poof.

I think you are seeing this theory all over because people are waking up and realizing the numbers don't match up. Combined with all the suppression of data, lack of testing, etc, logic is rushing in.

The virus is very real, I will agree on that. Its very contagious as experts agree. Is it so far fetched to think that it is in its final phase like other viruses we couldn't come out with a vaccine for soon enough because they magically disappeared?
 

rocky500

Getting the hang of it
Joined
Jun 24, 2019
Messages
50
Reaction score
33
Location
Australia

Arjun

Known around here
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
9,015
Reaction score
11,032
Location
USA
There's something peculiar in the CDC Director's behavior, watch closely

 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
There's something peculiar in the CDC Director's behavior, watch closely

If you see other clips of him testifying, you will see he often closes his eyes while talking. It probably is a habit he does when stating rehearsed lines. There was nothing spontaneous in any of his remarks; he was sticking to approved talking points.

When stating that vaccination could start in "November-December" I wish he had said "after the election" instead, just to trigger some of the politicians (and people) who were watching.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Arjun

Known around here
Joined
Feb 26, 2017
Messages
9,015
Reaction score
11,032
Location
USA
Almost looks like he's having abdominal cramps

If you see other clips of him testifying, you will see he often closes his eyes while talking. It probably is a habit he does when stating rehearsed lines. There was nothing spontaneous in any of his remarks; he was sticking to approved talking points.

When stating that vaccination could start in "November-December" I wish he had said "after the election" instead, just to trigger some of the politicians (and people) who were watching.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
Wouldn't surprise me if he did have cramps, what with Trump's hand up his butt using him like a sock puppet.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 

Frankenscript

Known around here
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
1,288
Reaction score
1,197
I say that because Sweeden went from large infections/death per capita to a sudden drop to nearly nothing, almost instantly. We saw this in NY as well, and they didn't change their lockdown policies much. In fact, they loosened them as the numbers got better, yet their deaths were not as much as during the peak. China was on draconian lockdown from the beginning and for months: tracing, testing, everything you said, and their numbers were bad until all of a sudden....poof.

I think you are seeing this theory all over because people are waking up and realizing the numbers don't match up. Combined with all the suppression of data, lack of testing, etc, logic is rushing in.

The virus is very real, I will agree on that. Its very contagious as experts agree. Is it so far fetched to think that it is in its final phase like other viruses we couldn't come out with a vaccine for soon enough because they magically disappeared?
The "things are bad then ...poof" is seen all over the world and isn't an artifact of numbers not adding up. There's a big lag in time between activities that cause infections, those infections seeding an outbreak of infections, the outbreak of infections translating into clinical cases (which we actually see/have metrics for), and then yet more weeks later a death spike. When the local news (in Texas, Florida, New York, Sweden, etc.) shows people flooding into hospitals, people adjust their behavior and very quickly over a week the infection rate drops. But, there's still a big load of existing infections out there that have to work through the system and things keep getting worse for a bit, but then that bolus works its way through the system and there can be a rapid tailing-off of new cases and deaths. Often the next spike in cases after that translates into relatively few death because the most vulnerable are now taking extra precautions, and often it's a younger/healthier crowd getting sick. Plus, we know how to treat COID-19 fairly well now compared to say March.

People seem fascinated with Sweden so let's look at it:

1600295419415.png
1600295448738.png

They started off with nothing more than a light guidance to the public, and both cases and quickly after that deaths began to spike. It's a small country so the numbers are comparable to some COUNTIES in the US, but still... by April they had stronger measures under control including travel restrictions, limiting indoor venue capacities and such, and the population realized that ignoring the pandemic wasn't smart. Cases leveled off but there was still a fair amount of infection to go around; it was too late to really crush the curve. Deaths gradually declined. By June the travel restrictions and so on were eased and people rushed to holiday leading to a big case spike. But the holiday revelers were generally a younger crowd, at-risk people stayed in, vigilance increased throughout the rest of the summer, cases came down, and the death rate decreased to a trickle. Looking good there. But they have to stay vigilant, because all it takes is one sick person to bring it home to grandma.

An important point is that Sweden wasn't really a "poof" in deaths stopping. A lot of things had to come together to get it down to such numbers.

The data come from the individual states; there have been some fails at the state level (in both R and D states). It was a mistake for the data flow to the Feds to have been compromised over the summer by cutting CDC out of the loop; this has since been corrected.

I agree lack of testing is a big problem. We have a testing issue with inconsistent state-to-state situations. A national testing plan was devised that certainly would have been better than what we have now. But it was scrapped. If interested, use whatever search engine you like and look for the stories about the cancellation of the national testing plan Jared Kushner developed. I like THIS ARTICLE but others may prefer a different viewpoint. In any case, if we had a proper national testing plan and stuck to it, we would be having different conversations now.

To your point about vaccines, vaccines are costly and time consuming. We make vaccines only when there's a business case to do so, and when we can do it in time for the vaccine to be effective. All sorts of companies got all sorts of funding around the world to raise a vaccine against COVID-19, and the good news is the virus is stable enough to likely respond well to the vaccines. Early results are very promising.
 
Last edited:

bigredfish

Known around here
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
17,009
Reaction score
47,454
Location
Floriduh
You were doing so good until you went off on your TDS rant, then the post became noise and you lost your ability to convey the original message.

BLM has had the same problem, whatever message they hoped to communicate got drowned out by the rioting and they’re now worse off then when they started.

Just tryin to help ya out ;)
 
Top