Hi guys,
On the topic of "why has the flu gone away and yet we still have COVID-19?"
One thing that is poorly understood because the media don't know how to talk about it is that the drop in flu is an actual drop in prevalence, not just reported cases. So, if 90% of people with flu symptoms are afraid to go out to the doctor so stick it out at home, this doesn't necessarily result in a drop in flu prevalence numbers. The numbers reported are actually based on the percentage of people reporting flu symptoms, AND getting tested positive for flu. Think of it as a measure of the flu test positivity. It's the
proportion positive that matters the most, not just the number of positives. Flu modeling is actually a pretty complex subject; the
CDC has lots of details.
The short story about why flu has dropped so significantly is that the "masking/distancing/kids not in school/parents working remotely" has dropped the ability of flu to spread so much that it has died way back. Influenza has a much lower R value than COVID-19, so the distancing brought it below the replication threshold. COVID, which has several times the R value of flu, was still above an effective R value of 1 for much of the winter, specifically during the holidays when people mixed a lot more. Most docs I know say flu spreads SO MUCH at schools and also in offices and other close work environments ; in the US people frequently don't stay home from work when they have "just a touch of the flu" and we spread it around. These days, if someone coughs in a public place people make a beeline away from them.
Here are some references on the subject of the drop in flu. In particular it's interesting to speculate what next flu season is going to be, because with so little flu this year, choosing the strains for next fall's flu vaccine is going to be a statistical crapshoot.
Precautions taken to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, including wearing masks and distancing, are likely the major reason for a steep decline of flu cases in the U.S., according to experts. The Centers…
www.hsph.harvard.edu
All fall long, there was talk of a so-called “twin-demic.” COVID-19 and the flu were supposed to be a one-two punch, potentially crippling our hospital systems.
www.wcnc.com
Measures meant to tame the coronavirus pandemic are quashing influenza and most other respiratory diseases, which could have wide-ranging implications.
www.nature.com
PS: Being effectively a single dad while waiting for my wife to recover from surgery sucks. But she is getting better and I'm grateful!