Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[Hound Dog 911]

This number circled is the problem. Until antibody tests are completed on everyone we are going simply on those who got sick enough to be tested. A study in LA is showing they have a 50x or higher rate of infected and very low death rate. If we find out that instead of 1.5 million people were infected and it was 50-70 million people that are carrying the antibodies than statistically this drops to flu like numbers. I'm not comparing the disease to the flu. Purely numbers only. The numbers you are throwing out there in ER's is because the infection rate is far higher but not reported from lack of testing. You can keep flipping out about this. Until you have an accurate antibodies count on our population you are just flipping out over numbers that don't add up.

 

[Hound Dog 911]

We all do not need to agree. I've been on both sides of the coin on how I feel with this. I spent most of my adult life in the DC metro area. I have friends that have since retired that are on private sector fema like teams. I've stayed in the loop since retirement. Everyone just keep being safe and take care of yourself and family.

 

[bigredfish]

LOL I’m not flipping out. Quite calm with my 1st bourbon of the evening My family and I are fortunately maintaining a relatively normal lifestyle throughout this event.

I didn’t throw out any numbers..... just wondered which of my 4 specific bullet points you disagree with, ... specifically...

 

[Hound Dog 911]

Bloomberg

Cars
SUVs Get Parked in the Sea, Revealing Scope of U.S. Auto Market Glut
By Chester Dawson
April 30, 2020, 8:14 PM EDT Updated on May 1, 2020, 1:55 PM EDT

Roughly 2,000 Nissans spend almost a week floating offshore
A shipper says packed lots are unlike anything he’s ever seen

The length of almost two football fields, the cargo ship Jupiter Spirit arrived in Los Angeles’ harbor on April 24 after an almost three-week journey from Japan, ready to unload its cargo of about 2,000 Nissan Armada SUVs, Rogue crossovers and Infiniti sedans in a quick, half-day operation.

But when the ship, operated by Nissan Motor Co.’s freight arm, got about a mile offshore, its captain was ordered to drop anchor. And there the ship remained for almost a week -- a floating symbol of an unprecedented logjam as nearby storage lots covering hundreds of acres overflowed with vehicles that Americans suddenly have little desire to purchase.

There are gluts of all shapes and kinds forming in the U.S. nowadays, a testament to the scope of the economic pain the coronavirus is inflicting. Slaughterhouses are killing and tossing out thousands of pigs a

LOL I’m not flipping out. Quite calm with my 1st bourbon of the evening My family and I are fortunately maintaining a relatively normal lifestyle throughout this event.

I didn’t throw out any numbers..... just wondered which of my 4 specific bullet points you disagree with, ... specifically...

That wasn't necessarily to you. I just took two muscle relaxers after weed eating and mowing a shitty property we are selling. I can barely move.

 

[mat200]

We all do not need to agree. I've been on both sides of the coin on how I feel with this. I spent most of my adult life in the DC metro area. I have friends that have since retired that are on private sector fema like teams. I've stayed in the loop since retirement. Everyone just keep being safe and take care of yourself and family.

Hi @Hound Dog 911

Congratulations. Definitely look out for your health as all I have looked at this is especially more lethal and dangerous for older men, and your family is going to need you.

 

[bigredfish]

That wasn't necessarily to you. I just took two muscle relaxers after weed eating and mowing a shitty property we are selling. I can barely move.

Ouch, next time try 3 fingers of Knob Creek Single Barrel or mebbe Basil Hayden's ... we soak our Corona Virus masks in it

 

[Oceanslider]

Bloomberg
Cars
SUVs Get Parked in the Sea, Revealing Scope of U.S. Auto Market Glut
By Chester Dawson
April 30, 2020, 8:14 PM EDT Updated on May 1, 2020, 1:55 PM EDT
Roughly 2,000 Nissans spend almost a week floating offshore
A shipper says packed lots are unlike anything he’s ever seen

I have been thinking about buying a brand new truck the past few weeks. The last two trucks I bought were used and purchased through private party.

The last time I bought a New truck, I bought a "Loss Leader" and was hoping I could do that again. If you are not familiar with what a Loss Leader is, it's basically the lowest price you can get, typically a fairly stripped down version, but at, or nearly at, the dealers cost. I have purchased 3 Loss Leaders in my lifetime.

That last time I bought a new one, a Loss Leader, was in 2001. And in 2001 newspapers like the OC Register or the LA Times here in California had pages upon pages of ads for cars in the Saturday and Sunday papers. So I went searching for a newspaper yesterday and today at the local markets and none had the car ads like they used to. Anyone else remember the multiple pages of ads for car dealerships that would say "two at this price" and list the Vin Numbers in fine print?

Do the car dealers just not advertise in the newspapers anymore like they used to? I'm hoping that maybe my local markets that had the newspapers just had a condensed or stripped down edition. Or have dealers given up on old fashion newspapers for advertising?

 

[Hound Dog 911]

Ouch, next time try 3 fingers of Knob Creek Single Barrel or mebbe Basil Hayden's ... we soak our Corona Virus masks in it

If I find out my wife is pregnant I'll be grabbing some good stuff.

 

[bigredfish]

I have been thinking about buying a brand new truck the past few weeks. The last two trucks I bought were used and purchased through private party.

The last time I bought a New truck, I bought a "Loss Leader" and was hoping I could do that again. If you are not familiar with what a Loss Leader is, it's basically the lowest price you can get, typically a fairly stripped down version, but at, or nearly at, the dealers cost. I have purchased 3 Loss Leaders in my lifetime.

That last time I bought a new one, a Loss Leader, was in 2001. And in 2001 newspapers like the OC Register or the LA Times here in California had pages upon pages of ads for cars in the Saturday and Sunday papers. So I went searching for a newspaper yesterday and today at the local markets and none had the car ads like they used to. Anyone else remember the multiple pages of ads for car dealerships that would say "two at this price" and list the Vin Numbers in fine print?

Do the car dealers just not advertise in the newspapers anymore like they used to? I'm hoping that maybe my local markets that had the newspapers just had a condensed or stripped down edition. Or have dealers given up on old fashion newspapers for advertising?

Should be a GREAT time to buy a new vehicle.!

 

[Oceanslider]

Should be a GREAT time to buy a new vehicle.!

I would hope so. I have a lead on fleet pricing but it still seems high and not much discount off the sticker price, so I thought I would see what the Loss Leader prices are. I sure hope that is not a thing of the past. At least when the economy was rocking before the virus most used Trucks were insanely overprices even in the private market.

 

[Barboots]

The spike in Total Deaths is inarguable. It's tin-foil hat time if you are inclined to think that the world has silently joined forces in a global scam to manipulate this very basic data set. The extent it has shifted, in all affected locations, is undeniable proof that this is not the damned flu.

 

[Jessie.slimer]

Should be a GREAT time to buy a new vehicle.!

I'm trying to buy a new truck too, but have to wait till the 15th for my house refinance to close. Can't pull new credit till then. I was lucky enough to jump on the low rates when they bottomed out a few weeks ago. Drop in payment will almost cover a truck payment.

Hopefully the deals will still be there in a couple weeks.

 

[Hound Dog 911]

The spike in Total Deaths is inarguable. It's tin-foil hat time if you are inclined to think that the world has silently joined forces in a global scam to manipulate this very basic data set. The extent it has shifted, in all affected locations, is undeniable proof that this is not the damned flu.

The spike isn't arguable, the actual numbers are. No tinfoil hat here. Not a conspiracy thinker by any means. It's just obvious the numbers game that even laim stream media is starting to report and lack of real data of people that had it and haven't been tested because they didn't have tests or were not ill enough. But if you want to call names at free thinkers that watch the government push BS gun deaths numbers, fail to show published data on good gun use saves lives, and believes the government is our friends you are part of the problem. It's perfectly fine to jam pack myself in a Lowes or Walmart here but not get in my boat and be with people I'm quarantined with. I could walk along the B&O tow path but can't fish it for stress relief? Yeah sorry. Use your brain. Piece out and have a great day.

 

[StratRider]

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.
We've probably all seen stats twisted to favor whomever is presenting the argument.
If you have not then it is usually because you already agree with their statements or don't care about the subject.
Always question numbers and especially percentages.
Not knowing the precise make-up of a statistic render them untrustworthy but great for attempting to influence others.
Latest example was projecting death rates onto states like Wyoming based on stats from NY & NJ where people use the petri dish called public transportation.

 

[Oceanslider]

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.
We've probably all seen stats twisted to favor whomever is presenting the argument.
If you have not then it is usually because you already agree with their statements or don't care about the subject.
Always question numbers and especially percentages.
Not knowing the precise make-up of a statistic render them untrustworthy but great for attempting to influence others.
Latest example was projecting death rates onto states like Wyoming based on stats from NY & NJ where people use the petri dish called public transportation.

The fact is they are calling almost all deaths Covid. The current death number is over inflated. As someone that was just on the verge of death because of another issue, the one that they really succumbed to, is being written up as Covid.

I know a couple of young people, friends of my kids, that cannot pay their rent this month.

In California the death rate is currently at 5 out of every 100,000 people in the state. Does that really warrant all the financial suffering and anxiety?

 

[Oceanslider]

Elon Musk is night and day smarter than Bill Gates....

Elon Musk slams coronavirus lockdowns: ‘FREE AMERICA NOW’

Billionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk lashed out Wednesday at lockdowns meant to contain the coronavirus in a series of early-morning Twitter posts echoing calls from protesters around the US. “FR…

nypost.com

 

[Frankenscript]

The fact is they are calling almost all deaths Covid. The current death number is over inflated. As someone that was just on the verge of death because of another issue, the one that they really succumbed to, is being written up as Covid.

I know a couple of young people, friends of my kids, that cannot pay their rent this month.

In California the death rate is currently at 5 out of every 100,000 people in the state. Does that really warrant all the financial suffering and anxiety?

The number is actually undercounting deaths, but that will all work out eventually.

If someone is on hospice care with a month to live, say due to cancer, then gets COVID and expires due to pneumonia they didn't have before, that's a COVID death. Just because they were going to die anyway doesn't invalidate the cause of death.

But the issue of "when to open up" is a thorny one. I live in Indiana, our (republican) governor is opening us up very gradually using a data based approach with inputs including the corona case loads and hospital capacities. Over the last two months we got very solid data about what our state can handle, and how our case load converts into hospitalizations and deaths, and what each incremental bunch of patients does to the hospital system. The opening plan ( Back On Track Indiana: Home ) gives weeks in between each stage so if things look like they might get out of control, it can snap back. While I am quite liberal, I think my conservative governor is doing a good job and listening to facts and acting based on them. Indiana has about 600 new cases (positive diagnoses) per day and somewhat more than 30 COVID -19 deaths each day, mostly stable for the last month or so. This means that if you are a diagnosed COVID-19 case, you have about a 6% chance of dying of the thing on average. It's non-trivial.

California COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

California COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Check the graphs. Your state has about 1500 new cases each day and about 75 deaths, on average. So, if you get it about a 5% chance of dying from it on average.

In all states the deaths are most in the elderly and immunocompromised. But given the current restrictions, the fact that every day 1500 people in Cali are still getting this thing (plus, lots more that are subclinical) means there's a lot going around.

A few takeaways from my perspective:

We can't wait this thing out. Vaccines are too far in the future.
We haven't come up with compelling treatments as a silver bullet or game changer
Sooner or later, each state has to open to some extent
Every state has different dynamics so there's no one size fits all.
OFTEN OVERLOOKED: When the restrictions lighten up, folks that were collecting unemployment due to the imposed shutdown have to go back to work or lose benefits. If their place of work can't keep them on due to low demand, it means the cost of their unemployment shifts from the state to the business owner.

I don't envy those in charge that have to weigh the pros and cons of back to work.

 

[Frankenscript]

I did a bit of checking to put Covid deaths into perspective for California. Leading cause of death there is heart disease at about 172 deaths per day; cancer just a shade under that. Everything else much less.

So the 75 deaths per day base rate of COVID-19 would currently be the third leading cause of death in California on a day to day basis. The problem is how much it may grow if things are relaxed. Nobody knows for sure.

I wish you and your friends there the best of luck.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

 

[mat200]

The fact is they are calling almost all deaths Covid. The current death number is over inflated. As someone that was just on the verge of death because of another issue, the one that they really succumbed to, is being written up as Covid.

I know a couple of young people, friends of my kids, that cannot pay their rent this month.

In California the death rate is currently at 5 out of every 100,000 people in the state. Does that really warrant all the financial suffering and anxiety?

There's more that just a static number when calculating this.

If it was static and we only looked at 5 out of 100K, of course not - makes no sense to kill the economy.

The issue is that this is not static, it is not even linear. It is exponential. We have to get it to a manageable level.

This bugger is Airborne by any layman's terms. Just look at the research.

Various ways to suppress this, and many countries are finding success without closing completely up. Taiwan is a great example.

We need to learn from Taiwain.

Looks like NZ and Australia are doing well containing it and can open up some.
Czech also doing better than others, and Germany is looking to find a balance to keep the R0 at or below 1.

Problem is we let it get too big, and poor messaging on the part of mass media / those in charge.
Also too much effort is spend by both political parties right now to get an advantage in the upcoming elections.
( seriously New York Times and Washington Post doing whatever they can to promote the Democrats,.. )

CFR ( Case Fatality Rate ) - is significantly higher than the Flu
IFR ( Infection Fatality Rate ) - even if the same as the seasonal Flu - this bugger has a much higher R0

Also this bugger is nastier than the Flu in terms of what it does to humans. So the usual remedies do not work well.

Blood clotting - not playing nicely.

 

[Frankenscript]

Great post @mat200 !

I'd like to expand on something you said, the part about it being exponential, tying it to my note that the current 75 deaths/day in California makes COVID-19 the third highest daily cause of death there, behind the top two causes (heart disease and cancer, up around 170/day each).

Before the lockdown and social distancing we now understand that COVID-19 was doubling every three days or so. So, if things went back to pre-lockdown way of life without any changes, it would only take one week to spread the virus enough to (after a lag) result in a spike of 4x the current rates: so up to 6000 new cases per day and 300 deaths per day. It would be the number one cause of death in California. Of course, nothing is instantaneous. There would be a lag before the first set of cases induced the next set of cases and the "critical mass" style of propagation gets going to result in the 3 day doubling time. But not a long one, maybe a few days to a week before you hit that rate. And of course going from infection to symptomatic (for those people who will be symptomatic) is on average a week... and from there on average days to a week or two before death for those who will die.

So, if the reigns are fully loosened, "back to normal," cases diagnosed will start ticking up in about a week and really spike two weeks in, and deaths start to spike a week or two after that. But by the time you get to the deaths as a lagging indicator, a month in, the case number has already gotten out of control. Presuming a week of lag time in cases before the doubling really gets going, you've now got 3 weeks of fully uncontrolled virus spread with a 4x/week having happened. So, at the one month point you've now got 96,000 new cases each day and eventually this results in ~5000 California deaths per day.

I talk about this stuff with folks from all walks of life and what is missing from the equation is an understanding of how close to the edge we were as a country. The greater New York area went a bit over the edge but was pulled back from the abyss by a massive infusion of supplies and help from all over. Michigan, specifically Detroit area, was not as close but got within sight of that hairy edge. But nowhere in the country was more than two or three weeks away from creating enough cases to cause collapse of the local health care system. The lockdowns saved us.

So, the path forward is to first get down to manageable levels of infection, then re-open in ways that preserve as much as possible of the social distancing, while incorporating testing as a LEADING indicator of spiking (so circuit-breaker lockdown measures can be re-introduced as needed) so we can avoid spikes at the LAGGING indicator of deaths, by which time it's much harder to reign things in.

All states are unique. California, more challenging than most. I don't envy your governor or local authorities. There's no good path forward that will satisfy everyone. I expect a gradual re opening with massive limitations to control the spread.