Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[mat200]

Interesting guideline here, note a number of countries indicated as doing well:

ALL YOU NEED TO
CRUSH COVID-19
Act confidently against COVID-19 with the help of our guidelines and research established by distinguished experts and scientists from the New England Complex Systems Insitute (NECSI), Harvard, UCLA, MIT and more.

EndCoronavirus.org

Eliminating COVID-19 is possible. Many countries are already succeeding. It isn't too late to join them.

www.endcoronavirus.org

 

[mat200]

This was worth my time, covered the topic of modeling the pandemic within a country well.


What Happens Next?
COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations
30 min play/read · by Marcel Salathé (epidemiologist) & Nicky Case (art/code)

What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

an interactive guide

ncase.me

 

[Oceanslider]

This was worth my time, covered the topic of modeling the pandemic within a country well.


What Happens Next?
COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations
30 min play/read · by Marcel Salathé (epidemiologist) & Nicky Case (art/code)

What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

an interactive guide

ncase.me

View attachment 61205

So in other words, live like there's no tomorrow

 

[mat200]

So in other words, live like there's no tomorrow

lol, no. There's multiple scenarios listed in the write ups.

If you look closer there are various tools to reduce the R / R0 value - and if you can get it controlled under 1 you can have a reasonably functional society in some cases. ( Taiwan being a key example of that. )

Examples of "tools": Washing hands, masks for all, social distancing, cleaning, contact tracing, isolation of sick,... some tools are very affordable to implement and even poorer nations can do that.

 

[Arjun]

Working remotely proves to be a bit amusing but carries risks as well due to potentially weakened immunity

 

[Jessie.slimer]

So what is your plan to put money back in the pockets of those that actually want to work and want to put food on the plates of their children? People are out of money. Are we supposed to cower in fear inside our houses forever? And put America, how many more trillions in debt? How many Trillions do you suggest we spend?

I've got an idea. How about we make China start making payments to us for it? After they wipe out our debt to them. I mean they've got the money. Buying up islands and countries and world health organizations. Stealing from the rest of the world for decades.

But our politicians are too chicken shit to stand up to them. Really stand up to them. Both sides.

 

[Frankenscript]

So what is your plan to put money back in the pockets of those that actually want to work and want to put food on the plates of their children? People are out of money. Are we supposed to cower in fear inside our houses forever? And put America, how many more trillions in debt? How many Trillions do you suggest we spend?

My plan is to pay my share of what the PPP and unemployment insurance costs. I expect tax increases on both corporations and individuals. I benefited from these government actions and I get to chip in to pay for them. I'm also expecting increases in health care insurance/costs because our health system needs to grow to handle higher volumes instead of be tuned to handle more than just a flu season spike. Separately I am donating to local food banks, $200/month, it's what I can do. Keep in mind that just because I still have a job doesn't mean I haven't taken a pay cut.

Nobody is saying we need to cower in fear at any time. Obeying lockdowns isn't cowering in fear, it's respecting the threat and doing what is needed to get in front of this thing. Failure to follow the directives makes it a lot harder to get the disease under some semblance of control. Once we've got a handle on it, things can open, or continue to open, gradually while monitoring our health systems to make sure we don't exceed our ICU capacity. For example in Indiana where I live, we can handle a 3X spike in ICU capacity, no more, from our current steady state. The governor is slowly opening up with plenty of time in between each stage to gauge the effects of each step of reopening. This is a prudent plan because we have proven we can't just wait this thing out. But it's possible, likely even, that at some point we'll need to move backward (more restrictions) if the spike starts growing out of control on a trajectory to exceed capacity.

Letting everybody do their thing, heedless of public health orders, is a recipe for disaster. As a nation we came within less than two weeks of collapse of the health system, just one week in a lot of places. Remember, it was doubling twice each week at that time, so each week the number of hospitalization cases was going up by 4X. Another week, two at most, and pretty much every hospital would have been overwhelmed. What if people had ignored the orders then?

Our economy can adapt to a lot of different stressors. What it doesn't adapt to is unpredictability. If we can get to a point where things aren't perfect but are reasonably stable and predictable, the economy will grow into whatever that state is. If we go from open to lockdown repeatedly because people aren't following directives, that's economic disaster.

Cuomo's comment about hospitalizations coming from people who had been staying home is interesting. I will love to dig into the epidemiology of that when there is data. Meanwhile, I just read a report where in San Francisco, they tested >4000 people. 2% were positive, and 90% of those were people that had to report to work (not work remotely). Also look what happens in "close quarters" jobs like meatpacking. Not fun.

It's interesting that the right wing media used to be the "law and order" side of things while it was left wing people who were protesting. My how times have changed.

 

[Oceanslider]

My plan is to pay my share of what the PPP and unemployment insurance costs. I expect tax increases on both corporations and individuals. I benefited from these government actions and I get to chip in to pay for them. I'm also expecting increases in health care insurance/costs because our health system needs to grow to handle higher volumes instead of be tuned to handle more than just a flu season spike. Separately I am donating to local food banks, $200/month, it's what I can do. Keep in mind that just because I still have a job doesn't mean I haven't taken a pay cut.

Nobody is saying we need to cower in fear at any time. Obeying lockdowns isn't cowering in fear, it's respecting the threat and doing what is needed to get in front of this thing. Failure to follow the directives makes it a lot harder to get the disease under some semblance of control. Once we've got a handle on it, things can open, or continue to open, gradually while monitoring our health systems to make sure we don't exceed our ICU capacity. For example in Indiana where I live, we can handle a 3X spike in ICU capacity, no more, from our current steady state. The governor is slowly opening up with plenty of time in between each stage to gauge the effects of each step of reopening. This is a prudent plan because we have proven we can't just wait this thing out. But it's possible, likely even, that at some point we'll need to move backward (more restrictions) if the spike starts growing out of control on a trajectory to exceed capacity.

Letting everybody do their thing, heedless of public health orders, is a recipe for disaster. As a nation we came within less than two weeks of collapse of the health system, just one week in a lot of places. Remember, it was doubling twice each week at that time, so each week the number of hospitalization cases was going up by 4X. Another week, two at most, and pretty much every hospital would have been overwhelmed. What if people had ignored the orders then?

Our economy can adapt to a lot of different stressors. What it doesn't adapt to is unpredictability. If we can get to a point where things aren't perfect but are reasonably stable and predictable, the economy will grow into whatever that state is. If we go from open to lockdown repeatedly because people aren't following directives, that's economic disaster.

Cuomo's comment about hospitalizations coming from people who had been staying home is interesting. I will love to dig into the epidemiology of that when there is data. Meanwhile, I just read a report where in San Francisco, they tested >4000 people. 2% were positive, and 90% of those were people that had to report to work (not work remotely). Also look what happens in "close quarters" jobs like meatpacking. Not fun.

It's interesting that the right wing media used to be the "law and order" side of things while it was left wing people who were protesting. My how times have changed.

Typical overeducated elitist answer that is not smart at all and doesn’t answer my questions

 

[Oceanslider]

Interesting...

The YouTube CCP strikes again.

Their words for the American people; How dare you think for yourself! All dissenting opinions WILL be silenced! (spoken with heavy Greta Thunberg inflection)

 

[Jessie.slimer]

The CCP strikes again.

Their words for the American people; How dare you think for yourself! All dissenting opinions WILL be silenced!

Already removed. You should change it to YouTube strikes again.

Think like YouTube or your videos get deleted.

 

[Frankenscript]

Typical overeducated elitist answer that is not smart at all and doesn’t answer my questions

So what's your solution? Let everyone do what they want, no masks, no distancing, no restrictions on business? The health care system will fail within a month or two after the R value goes back up, the sick overwhelm the health care capacity, supply chains will collapse, and then we'll be truly fuQed long term. That's a scenario worthy of being scared about.

I'm a fan of diversity of thought, but I get frustrated when people think their ignorance makes them the equal of people with specific training in how to deal with a specific crisis. I know a little about a lot of things and I know a lot about a few things. I know enough to listen to considered medical opinions on this thing, and I know enough to be able to look at the data, the trends, the drivers and validate the rationality of what I'm being asked to do. I also know enough to look at the global response and gain insight from what we learn.

This may be too elitist for you, but here's a reference to a study on various strategies.

Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt top policies

Researchers sift through data to compare nations’ vastly different containment measures.

www.nature.com

TL/DR: more restrictions and greater compliance leads to quicker containment. Would it help if I get some wild eyed doctor to make a youtube video about it? Seems some people tend to put more stock in that because it seems less elitist.

A wild-west approach isn't the answer.

 

[Jessie.slimer]

I think everyone agrees that a vaccination is a long way off. So its no doubt a lot of people will eventually get it. Why keep everyone in lockdown? People in less densely populated areas should be allowed to try and pay their bills without fear of arrest. Maybe start to open some things up in busier places and monitor the load on the hospitals? There doesn't have to be one extreme or another. Hospitals are nowhere near capacity right now.

Seriously, do parks and beaches REALLY need to be locked down?

 

[Jessie.slimer]

I'm predicting a lot of other sicknesses when the doors are opened again, due to lowered immune systems from everything being disinfected.

 

[Frankenscript]

I think everyone agrees that a vaccination is a long way off. So its no doubt a lot of people will eventually get it. Why keep everyone in lockdown? People in less densely populated areas should be allowed to try and pay their bills without fear of arrest. Maybe start to open some things up in busier places and monitor the load on the hospitals? There doesn't have to be one extreme or another. Hospitals are nowhere near capacity right now.

Seriously, do parks and beaches REALLY need to be locked down?

This is what IS HAPPENING. This week I think 42 states loosened things up to some extent.

We flattened the curve significantly, and we learned what our medical capacity is in terms of COVID-19 case load, and now states are experimenting based on local conditions to see how they can handle a degree of re-opening, slowing down if case loads spike. I support this kind of fact-and-evidence based approach.

Just keep in mind this thing is exponential with long lag time for detection. In Indiana, there's room for 3x the current # of covid cases. Plenty of capacity, to your point. But if we went full pre-lockdown, including everyone back to work/school, no measures for protection, it would take less than a week (two at most, given lag time) to generate enough new cases to swamp the medical capacity. Indiana dept health published some metrics that here it was doubling in 3 days, so more than 4x cases each week, right at the start before measures were put into place. And since it takes often a week between becoming infectious and having symptoms, the case load would be building before even the leading indicator (diagnosed cases) would start to spike.

See here for Indiana's logical plan:

Home

www.backontrack.in.gov

It's one approach; the experiment is really to compare the different approaches by the different states, and look at outcomes from them.

 

[Jessie.slimer]

Hopefully soon. Lots of people hurting in my area. Businesses are still closed, most are not working, and our town has less than 400 people. No burden on the hospitals.

Maybe they should not put everyone on the same reopening schedule

 

[Oceanslider]

So what's your solution? Let everyone do what they want, no masks, no distancing, no restrictions on business? The health care system will fail within a month or two after the R value goes back up, the sick overwhelm the health care capacity, supply chains will collapse, and then we'll be truly fuQed long term. That's a scenario worthy of being scared about.

I'm a fan of diversity of thought, but I get frustrated when people think their ignorance makes them the equal of people with specific training in how to deal with a specific crisis. I know a little about a lot of things and I know a lot about a few things. I know enough to listen to considered medical opinions on this thing, and I know enough to be able to look at the data, the trends, the drivers and validate the rationality of what I'm being asked to do. I also know enough to look at the global response and gain insight from what we learn.

This may be too elitist for you, but here's a reference to a study on various strategies.

Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt top policies

Researchers sift through data to compare nations’ vastly different containment measures.

www.nature.com

TL/DR: more restrictions and greater compliance leads to quicker containment. Would it help if I get some wild eyed doctor to make a youtube video about it? Seems some people tend to put more stock in that because it seems less elitist.

A wild-west approach isn't the answer.

So do you believe the numbers out of China? Even Fauci and Birx have said repeatedly they don't.

 

[Frankenscript]

I don't believe mainland China's numbers. I do believe most others, particularly Europe. Lots to be learned there.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

 

[Sybertiger]

LOL, we already knew Kalifornia was commie....those homeless peeps need a place during the Covid-19 event.

LA city council votes to name hotels that refuse to house homeless, may 'commandeer' them

The Los Angeles City Council Tuesday voted to publicly identify the hotels refusing house to the homeless to help them socially distance during the coronavirus pandemic and said they may need to be “commandeered.”

www.foxnews.com

 

[Oceanslider]

LOL, we already knew Kalifornia was commie....those homeless peeps need a place during the Covid-19 event.

LA city council votes to name hotels that refuse to house homeless, may 'commandeer' them

The Los Angeles City Council Tuesday voted to publicly identify the hotels refusing house to the homeless to help them socially distance during the coronavirus pandemic and said they may need to be “commandeered.”

www.foxnews.com

What about the massive Pelosi compound?

 

[mat200]

..

Hi @Oceanslider

If you're really looking for answers on how to recover and open up, do check out the various options discussed:

What Happens Next? COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations

an interactive guide

ncase.me

Really good info there. Try out the different scenarios, while simplistic - it does give you some good ideas of how different responses handle the situation.