Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Parley

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Study from the New England Journal of Medicine Shows the Only Reason for Keeping Children Home from School is Politics

The results from a study reported in the New England Journal of Medicine show that the only reason children are being kept from school due to the China coronavirus is politics.

The New England Journal of Medicine released the results of a study on the China coronavirus that are shocking. Children have a very low risk of catching the China coronavirus.

...

The New England Journal of Medicine, the senior author concluded that:

“[E]ven if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.“

...

Let’s get our children back in school.

 

Jessie.slimer

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Study from the New England Journal of Medicine Shows the Only Reason for Keeping Children Home from School is Politics

The results from a study reported in the New England Journal of Medicine show that the only reason children are being kept from school due to the China coronavirus is politics.

The New England Journal of Medicine released the results of a study on the China coronavirus that are shocking. Children have a very low risk of catching the China coronavirus.

...

The New England Journal of Medicine, the senior author concluded that:

“[E]ven if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.“

...

Let’s get our children back in school.

Yeah, LA teachers union put defunding the police as one of their ransom demands for reopening the schools.

What in the hell does removing police funding have to do with the schools reopening?

It's political.
 

Arjun

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That's puzzling because some scientific journals claim the opposite stating that children (so-called silent spreaders) can unknowingly and unintentionally transmit the virus to others, especially the elderly.



Study from the New England Journal of Medicine Shows the Only Reason for Keeping Children Home from School is Politics

The results from a study reported in the New England Journal of Medicine show that the only reason children are being kept from school due to the China coronavirus is politics.

The New England Journal of Medicine released the results of a study on the China coronavirus that are shocking. Children have a very low risk of catching the China coronavirus.

...

The New England Journal of Medicine, the senior author concluded that:

“[E]ven if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.“

...

Let’s get our children back in school.

 

Jessie.slimer

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How about everyone wears masks at school/social distancing, and the elderly/at risk teachers are given the option of video conferencing the curriculum from their homes or a quarantined room of the school to a class of students? Or those that are at high risk are given other tasks at the school away from the children.

There are options. I'm sure these students and teachers are not locked in the basement of their homes 24/7.
 

Frankenscript

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Study from the New England Journal of Medicine Shows the Only Reason for Keeping Children Home from School is Politics

The results from a study reported in the New England Journal of Medicine show that the only reason children are being kept from school due to the China coronavirus is politics.

The New England Journal of Medicine released the results of a study on the China coronavirus that are shocking. Children have a very low risk of catching the China coronavirus.

...

The New England Journal of Medicine, the senior author concluded that:

“[E]ven if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.“

...

Let’s get our children back in school.

Guys, guys, guys...

You're killing me with these crappy "Free Republic" articles. Don't you understand they are FAKE NEWS?

Did you even read the NEJoM article? I did. It DOES NOT say what Free Republic says it says.

Free Republic doesn't even cite the actual journal article, because Free Republic is not journalism. It's just a repeater mouthpiece for a propaganda machine. It gets a lot of its content from sources like The Gateway Pundit, which is where this particular article came from. The Pundit is like a weed that casts its seeds upon the wind hoping they will land in a pile of fertilizer and grow. Go to the Gateway Pundit article ( here ). It sounds perfectly reasonable:

"The New England Journal of Medicine released the results of a study on the China coronavirus that are shocking. Children have a very low risk of catching the China coronavirus. " " and "“[E]ven if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.“ "'

Now, anytime you see "China coronavirus" you should be suspicious of an agenda; the disease is called COVID-19 and the virus is called SARS-CoV-2. Yes, we all know it came from China, but it has a name; let's use it.

Anyway, they DO cite the original NEJoM article ( here ). The title of the article is: "Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population " PLEASE READ IT before suggesting it has significant relevance about opening US schools or that the decision is strictly political.

Published a month ago, it's a very thorough dive into testing and contact tracing in an isolated population, with detailed analysis of symptoms and clusters of cases and different viral haplotypes (mutation strains). However, you will quickly see that the data is all from MARCH with analysis into early April. So, early on in the pandemic. Yes, kids are less likely to contract the virus (we have better data, now), and they are likely less prone to spreading it to others on a PER-CONTACT basis. More on this later. One reason kids were less likely to show up in the Iceland data is that most of the infections particularly early on came from travel and work, which was mostly adults. Toward the end of the cycle family exposure dominated.

1594731539610.png

So, this article has very little to say that is relevant to opening US schools. The article doesn't mention school transmission EVEN ONCE; it lumps schools into Work for purposes of analysis above.

Now, back to child transmissions: sure: take a COVID-19 sick adult, and have a kid hang out with that person for say 15 minutes. The kid is less likely to contract the disease than an adult would be. Similarly, take an infected kid, and have them spend 15 minutes with a healthy parent. The parent is less likely to get the disease from the kid than they would be if they were in the presence of a sick adult. Kid-to-kid transmission is probably also relatively low PER EVENT. This remains true, so The Gateway Pundit cherry picked an actual fact from the journal article.

But in schools full of kids, any one kid probably is "significantly exposed" to many dozens of kids during the course of the day. So, while the risk of contraction PER EXPOSURE is low, the NUMBER OF EXPOSURES per day is high, day after day. And once a kid is infected, though his/her chance of transmitting it to a family member is low PER EXPOSURE, the number of kid-parent exposures is going to be high. Just sitting around a dinner table for half an hour is more cumulative risk (for the parents) than they probably get in a week otherwise.

Proper analysis of the risk profile for sending kids back to school needs to look not just at the risk per exposure, but the number of exposures. There is a lot of this being considered and we will see how it goes. I remain on the fence. I'm leaning to letting my 13 year old play soccer (outdoors); I consider the incremental risk low. As to sending him back to school, I'm on the fence. My older son does better at home (variety of issues; he's very distracted at school but can focus at home) so if we have the option to keep him home (given his classes including a language) we will, but some of his stuff may need to be in person.


Anyway, back to the original article posted at Free Republic/Gateway Pundit: They took one actual fact, and spun it into a juicy headline that school opening is political, attributing it to NEJoM findings. This was a FALSE ATTRIBUTION and highly unethical. No portion of the Journal article supported the story spun by the Pundit; they used facts completely out of context, and the Icelandic data bears little relevance to the on-the-ground situation in the US at present.

Please, do some research before posting this crap.
 

Frankenscript

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Oh, one more thing. During most of the period of data collection for the NEJoM article, most schools in Iceland were closed so transmission that way would have been impossible...

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Parley

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A lot of schools in Europe are reopening with class attendance. That is a fact. Children are much, much less likely to catch Covid-19. That is a fact. The death rate in this country is dropping. That is a fact.
 
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Parley

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Schools, children and Covid-19 risk – experts weigh in

Experts stand behind the opening of schools, citing that children under the age of 19 are highly unlikely to contract Covid-19 or transmit it.

“Getting the flu is a higher risk than getting Covid-19 for kids,” says Zar, including dying from it. Children have a strong immunity to it, even those with comorbidities like asthma and diabetes – as long as the condition is well-medicated and under control. "

Schools, children and Covid-19 risk – experts weigh in
 

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A lot of schools in Europe are reopening with class attendance. That is a fact. Children are much, much less likely to catch Covid-19. That is a fact. The death rate in this country is dropping. That is a fact.
Like I said I remain on the fence about schools opening. The AAP made some good arguments in favor of opening. So, please don't think I'm dogmatic about keeping them closed because I'm not. I may well send my kids to school if they are open.

I am on the other hand opposed to using case studies from Europe to guide us without rigorous review. Europe crushed their pandemic and mostly is in mop up mode now. We have more virus in our population now than ever. This is a big difference in context. Also I believe that US kids are less likely to observe masking and distancing guidelines.

Not sure what you mean by death rate in US dropping. If you mean is the CFR lower now than it was in April, then yes we agree. Younger average age for cases and better treatment knowledge leads to better outcomes. But more people are dying of COVID-19 now than a few weeks ago; the deaths per day (7day average) is ticking up again. Dramatically so in hot spot states and in a month or month and a half or so I expect us to be back to 2000 deaths per day for the US as a whole unless we do a better job of masking and distancing.


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Parley

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With all the reopening it looks like a spike in the death rate which might be expected, but in the last few days the trend is coming down. We shall see. For me wear a mask, wash my hands and keep my social distancing.
 

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FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Hospitals confirm mistakes in Florida’s COVID-19 report

ORLANDO, Fla. - The Florida Department of Health released its daily coronavirus testing report showing a statewide positivity rate of 11 percent, but FOX 35 News investigated and quickly noticed some shocking positivity rates. …

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

More at the link: FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Florida Department of Health says some labs have not reported negative COVID-19 results
 

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Florida's reported deaths were 132 yesterday, 3x-4x what it was last week. I think we're going to see it continue up for the next 2 weeks or so
 

mat200

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A lot of schools in Europe are reopening with class attendance. That is a fact. Children are much, much less likely to catch Covid-19. That is a fact. The death rate in this country is dropping. That is a fact.
FYI - " Children are much, much less likely to catch Covid-19." - I have found no definitive evidence to support such a claim. Most who are studying this at this time believe Children can get it and infect others.

EU is able to do things differently now because they did a better job reducing the R value.
 

Arjun

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FYI - " Children are much, much less likely to catch Covid-19." - I have found no definitive evidence to support such a claim. Most who are studying this at this time believe Children can get it and infect others unknowingly and unintentionally.

EU is able to do things differently now because they did a better job reducing the R value.
 

mat200

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Moderna vaccine candidate, good news out:

An mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — Preliminary Report

July 14, 2020
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

METHODS
We conducted a phase 1, dose-escalation, open-label trial including 45 healthy adults, 18 to 55 years of age, who received two vaccinations, 28 days apart, with mRNA-1273 in a dose of 25 μg, 100 μg, or 250 μg. There were 15 participants in each dose group.

RESULTS
After the first vaccination, antibody responses were higher with higher dose (day 29 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay anti–S-2P antibody geometric mean titer [GMT], 40,227 in the 25-μg group, 109,209 in the 100-μg group, and 213,526 in the 250-μg group). After the second vaccination, the titers increased (day 57 GMT, 299,751, 782,719, and 1,192,154, respectively). After the second vaccination, serum-neutralizing activity was detected by two methods in all participants evaluated, with values generally similar to those in the upper half of the distribution of a panel of control convalescent serum specimens. Solicited adverse events that occurred in more than half the participants included fatigue, chills, headache, myalgia, and pain at the injection site. Systemic adverse events were more common after the second vaccination, particularly with the highest dose, and three participants (21%) in the 250-μg dose group reported one or more severe adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS
The mRNA-1273 vaccine induced anti–SARS-CoV-2 immune responses in all participants, and no trial-limiting safety concerns were identified. These findings support further development of this vaccine. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; mRNA-1273 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04283461. opens in new tab).




update: side note

..
Now, anytime you see "China coronavirus" you should be suspicious of an agenda; the disease is called COVID-19 and the virus is called SARS-CoV-2. Yes, we all know it came from China, but it has a name; let's use it.
..
Note: the term COVID-19 is a WHO term designed to purposefully meet a political agenda to reduce any trace in the name back to CCP PRC China and their responsibility.
Strictly using the WHO's terminology is allowing the WHO more power than they deserve, especially as the leadership of the WHO is constantly failing us - heck have they even accepted it is airborne yet?

imho it is perfectly acceptable to apply the appropriate terms due to WHO's attempt to protect those responsible. We have numerous diseases with names and regions associated with them.
 
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Parley

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Arjun

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This is indeed good news and off to a good start. If this can be administered as early as next year, then we can slowly start going back to normal routine.

Moderna vaccine candidate, good news out:

An mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — Preliminary Report

July 14, 2020
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2022483

METHODS
We conducted a phase 1, dose-escalation, open-label trial including 45 healthy adults, 18 to 55 years of age, who received two vaccinations, 28 days apart, with mRNA-1273 in a dose of 25 μg, 100 μg, or 250 μg. There were 15 participants in each dose group.

RESULTS
After the first vaccination, antibody responses were higher with higher dose (day 29 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay anti–S-2P antibody geometric mean titer [GMT], 40,227 in the 25-μg group, 109,209 in the 100-μg group, and 213,526 in the 250-μg group). After the second vaccination, the titers increased (day 57 GMT, 299,751, 782,719, and 1,192,154, respectively). After the second vaccination, serum-neutralizing activity was detected by two methods in all participants evaluated, with values generally similar to those in the upper half of the distribution of a panel of control convalescent serum specimens. Solicited adverse events that occurred in more than half the participants included fatigue, chills, headache, myalgia, and pain at the injection site. Systemic adverse events were more common after the second vaccination, particularly with the highest dose, and three participants (21%) in the 250-μg dose group reported one or more severe adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS
The mRNA-1273 vaccine induced anti–SARS-CoV-2 immune responses in all participants, and no trial-limiting safety concerns were identified. These findings support further development of this vaccine. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; mRNA-1273 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04283461. opens in new tab).


 
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