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Voting is an act performed privately, and many of those "anti-Trump" people will be voting for him when the time comes, because they are sick of the other side. The only way Trump loses the next election is through sheer voter fraud on a scale never seen before. And they know it, which is why they are desperately pushing vote by mail and why they are so vehemently against a Voter ID.
Very much disagree with you here.
Yes, Hillary was "ahead in the polls" and still lost. We all know there were a couple percent of "hidden Trump voters" (like, 2%, maybe 3% at most) that the polls didn't find, in key states. And, the polls couldn't react fast enough to the Comey treachery. She would have won anyway if she a) had showed the rust belt that she gave a damn and b) didn't make the "deplorables" crack that really fired up the Trump base.
But by and large the polling wasn't that bad then, and there's no good reason to think it's any farther off now.
Guys... you do realize that for the past month, TEXAS has been a state that's in contention, right?
Sure, give Trump his 2-3% "invisible voter" boost and he takes the state. I expect him to take Texas. But, the fact that it's even on the map as a conceptual Dem pickup should say something.
I'm not making any prognostications about November because as with last year, many things could --and probably will--happen before then. Hell, after the Pandemic, murder hornets, and whatnot I'm half expecting to see an outbreak of Kaiju coming ashore from a rift in the Ocean a la PAcific Rim.
However, if the vote were today, any way you measure it, Trump would lose big.
This is one of the things that bugs me about some folks here... and frankly the Trump wing of the Republican party, is that a shockingly large number of you refuse to accept data. Sure, we should all be skeptical. We should question assumptions. But for gosh sakes, look at what's happening around you. Your guy is down 10-15 points nationally because he botched this whole pandemic and EVERYBODY KNOWS IT.
I know personally 8 people who told me in 2016 that they voted for Trump. 3 of them are religious conservatives (believe it or not, two are "young Earth" fundamentalists who don't believe in natural history). These folks are voting Trump 2020 for sure. But the other 5 have all sworn to vote for Biden. Actually 4 said they were voting Dem no matter who it was that was the candidate, because they voted TRump in favor of disrupting the "Washington As Usual" state of affairs. Within a year three of them were openly regretting it. These are educated people who are reasonable that were fed up with the status quo. The last two of the five committed Democratic by early March when it was clear Trump had botched the national response. There are a lot of 2016 Trump voters that are appalled at what he has done.
I mean, seriously, our VP met with a representative of a group this week who have an outspoken member who believes our government is (or, was in 2015) run by "Reptilians." She thinks astral sex is the cause of gynecological problems and that alien DNA is used in vaccines. Seriously???? This is who you want meeting with Pence? And you are fighting to keep their nutball videos circulating? AAAIGGH!
Meanwhile, you've got an orange Hitler wannabe who is using the Nazi playbook step by step and you guys don't seem to see it. Step 1, break people's faith in the system. Step 2, break their trust in experts and have them look just to you. Step 3, give them an internal enemy to hate (In Germany, it was Jews. Today, it's immigrants). Step 4: Give them an external enemy to to hate (China). Step 5, provide a Trumped up idea that elections can't be done accurately.
Election fraud happens mostly on on small local races and most of the time it's found out. There's no wide spread election fraud going on in 2020 except maybe by the republicans to steal the election.
Seriously, look around you.
