I'm not a scientist or anything, but I'm wondering why all the major areas have had their peak and are much lower now. Could it be that most of the population has already gotten it??
I was all on board with the lockdowns at first, as well as masks, but give me a break. We can't be locked down for years. What if there is no vaccine? Everyone comes out of lockdown and gets it anyway? Only now they have covid and no job or bank account.
Why is there no transparency with this thing? 6 months and no fast, reliable tests? Why does data change depending on who is reporting it? Why is it ok to pack into stores but its not ok to open restaurants? Masks are great. No, masks make it worse. 6 feet distancing works. No, now you can get it from across the room. Just give me the damn virus already and let me get back to my life. If anyone wants to stay home, I can't fault them for that. Its their right. Sorry, but my opinion has changed after seeing how this has played out.
Your questions are ones a lot of people are asking. I'll give my own reply, trying diligently to stay away from politics for once.
I'm wondering why all the major areas have had their peak and are much lower now. Could it be that most of the population has already gotten it??
From what I understand the answer is a mix of things, but the short answer is no, only a small percentage of the population has been exposed enough to raise antibodies against it. Ballparking it, at most 20% of the US population, but more likely closer to 15%. Definitely this will vary with location, profession, and other demographics. There's definitely an effect that as people with with highly people-facing jobs that can't distance properly get exposed, for some months at least they are unlikely to get sick again (if they even got sick the first time; 40% don't). This probably isn't having a big impact on the overall numbers but would by now be big enough to see in populations like the meat packers and such.
As each place spikes, people adjust their behavior --frankly a lot of them get scared-- and this usually precedes official mandates that support and strengthen the decline in cases and deaths. It's about behavior, whether driven by mandates or fear of catching the thing. If you look at the R value charts for hotspots early on, you'll see clearly that the replication was dropping already in advance of government lockdowns, but mostly didn't achieve R<1 until after behavior changes were enforced. But it was spotty... Florida wasn't bad at first, then went way too open way to fast and look at the disaster. Georgia was crowing about low deaths per day in June (giving people false security) even as their caseload exploded, and a month later their death rate went up 5x. New York clamped down hard and has held a pretty good standard. Maryland, California, not so much... This goes way beyond red state blue state.
I was all on board with the lockdowns at first, as well as masks, but give me a break.
It's getting old for me too. I don't care about wearing a mask; that's fine and the research consistently shows it helps. But I haven't had a date with my wife away from the kids in six months, and I'm sick of them in the house virtual schooling, and I really miss my office. We've put off interior work on the house, and my wife's work (she's a health care provider) sucks because of the restrictions. Plus she has gotten sick twice since this all started; not COVID either time thank gosh but it's nerve wracking. We need as a country to do a better job of balancing safety measures with health; there are success stories and failures in various states. It comes down to the need for widespread personal accountability, and
We can't be locked down for years. What if there is no vaccine? Everyone comes out of lockdown and gets it anyway? Only now they have covid and no job or bank account.
First, as someone involved in the drug development industry, I'm confident a safe and effective vaccine will come along. I'm more worried about safety versus efficacy at this point due to the "warp speed" approach. However, if the trials are allowed to proceed to proper conclusion without shortcutting them, they can demonstrate both efficacy and safety to the point where the risks of getting the vaccine are much lower than the risks of avoiding it. And there's like 7 major companies with vaccines in the pipeline; if I were to be a betting man I would say we will be getting vaccines during Q1 next year. Note several of them will require two doses a month or so apart to be effective.
If none of the vaccines pan out, our way of life is going to change drastically for a while. We would probably have to do a HARD lockdown for a month or more to break the chain, and I mean hard... nobody leaves the house for anything other than serious medical needs, curbside food pickup (no in-store shopping) etc. (closely managed exceptions for essential workers) and then seriously diligent contact tracing for straggler cases. Combined with strip-style tests that will eventually be available, we could still beat this but it will be a lot harder. This is just my opinion; there are many other visions out there.
Why is there no transparency with this thing? 6 months and no fast, reliable tests?
Minimal answer to avoid politics. Fast non-lab-based tests take a while to develop; they are going through approval process now, but because they are less sensitive our usual process looks down on them. However, we need to know on a daily basis who is likely to be contagious and the strip tests used once or more per day would be a great way to do this. The economics of these will probably limit their use unless subsidized. Reasonably fast, extremely accurate lab-based testing (say, 24 hour turnaround) would have been achievable if it had been made a national priority in January. It is not a priority even today. That's why lab-based tests take anywhere from 12 hours to 3 weeks to get results (my wife's tests took 13 days for the first at a drive through clinic, 3 days for the second at a hospital). The only way to do it right would have been to run it at a national level, and a plan was in place to do that, then frankly politics got in the way. 'nuff said.
Why does data change depending on who is reporting it?
I've been watching data from the CDC, Worldometers, and JHU. I haven't seen significant changes beyond minor differences to be expected due to different aggregation techniques. The story is the same. But, why does one network describe unarmed peaceful marchers as protesters and the another describe them as rioters? If they aren't looting, burning, etc... they are protestors. If they are burning and breaking things they are rioters. Shouldn't matter who reports it. It should be that simple, but our partisan news services don't see it that way.
Why is it ok to pack into stores but its not ok to open restaurants? Masks are great. No, masks make it worse. 6 feet distancing works. No, now you can get it from across the room.
It's not ok to pack into stores. Distancing measures should be enforced everywhere and at all times, particularly inside. Restaurants involve people eating without masks on so represent more of a hazard, so more distance between tables and better airflow. Outside, physical distance and masking when in groups seem very effective. Science involves taking new data and updating the plans based on it. That's why recommendations from authorities changed. You can get it from across the room but the likelihood of doing so falls off approximately with the square of the distance. So a meter is better than a foot, six feet better still and within practical capability for many stores and such. I shop in grocery stores masked (mandated) and with everyone else masked and don't worry much about getting sick. We keep our distance, observe aisle direction to avoid passing where possible, and just generally give each other some space. In some places eating in restaurants may be safe but no way would I try it at this point.
Just give me the damn virus already and let me get back to my life. If anyone wants to stay home, I can't fault them for that. Its their right. Sorry, but my opinion has changed after seeing how this has played out.
I've known several people who got the disease at age ~50 (I'm 53) and I sure as hell don't want to go through what they did; none died but some still have lingering possibly lifelong issues. It's not "die or be fine"... it's a roulette of be fine, die, have minor symptoms, have major symptoms, or have lingering breathing and clotting problems. It would be interesting (though wildly unethical) to have a facility where you could go, get exposed, and live in private seclusion for two weeks to see what happens. However, doing so you would probably have to agree to receive only minimal medical care so as not to detract from staffing the hospitals for those that got sick through no fault of their own. OTherwise it's "COVID-19 Parties" like they had in Alabama and other places. And remember if you get it, you might transmit it to someone else without meaning to. And natural immunity may not protect you beyond a few months; we don't know for sure.
I don't have all the answers, but I hope you and your family stay safe.
(oceanslider, I will watch your video over the weekend...)