Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

First, Chinese top down system crushes docs who "leak" warnings about the virus. That removed the only chance to stop the virus. Only after end of government party retreat are large numbers reported.
Local government takes out their professionals for warning the public and goes ahead with huge public banquet. Yep, knowingly expose everyone like Chernobyl.

WHO shows up with a statement mostly about economics and basically nothing about the virus. They read it and praise Xi and the CCP. Basically, please preserved trade and ignore the virus.

In contrast, multiple American agencies working together (CDC, HHS...) holds press conference with actual medical experts who answer questions about the virus and why we are restricting travel.

Team political stability vs team medicine and science.

China complains that the US isn't following WHO's "orders"
 
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Good summation
 
To cripple the US this virus would only need to infect 0.3-0.5% of the population. At that point every hospital would be overloaded. I suspect that retirement homes would be like throwing a match on dry tinder, same goes for jails and prisons which are already short on medical staff.
 
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The mutations ( see the link ):

"This phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of viruses from the novel coronavirus (nCoV) outbreak. All samples are highly related with at most seven mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019. This indicates an initial human infection in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections."

Ref:
GISAID - Next betaCoV App
 
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Just Transited thru Hong Kong International. Very sobering what I saw. Quiet. Tension that you could almost cut a knife with. Almost everybody masked up. Very apparent, nobody really wanted to be there. Was getting ready to take some photos, but people started glaring at me when I raised my notebook to take a shot. Thought it was not a good idea.
Glad to be in the US. If I’m having to deal with a Deadly pan epidemic, want to be at home. Least I’m well-armed.
I’m very worried, this is not going well. My past 2 weeks in Asia been very real. Figure in a couple of weeks, well be where china is at now.
 
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erkme73 said:
Is anyone else starting to get concerned about what's happening with the coronavirus from Wuhan? It's difficult to know what is trustworthy information, and why is hype, but honestly, I'm starting to get a real uneasy feeling about what little 'legitimate' info is being reported from the WHO and CDC.

The latest information indicates the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days, and just today, the CDC announced that someone infected may be infectious for the entire time they are asymptomatic. That's scary since it means infections are happening in areas that haven't seen any symptoms, for possibly a week or more.

As an ER doc, my wife is at the tip of the spear when it comes to treating people. And while I'm sure most that are not in the medical field will learn of local infections from word of mouth or local news reports, those reports come from those on the front line - who ultimately will be exposed before any warnings are issued.

I live in a very, very remote area (closest neighbor is more than a mile away, and the closest town with a Walmart is a 2hr RT drive). If things get bad, I can shelter in place (we have adequate food and supplies), but that will be of little consequence if wife is infected in the process of finding the first case of the virus in our area.

If anyone is concerned, the time to prepare is quickly evaporating. N95 and higher masks are all but sold out on Amazon. Emergency food rations are also expected to be exhausted as more people become aware of how real this threat is. As soon as people begin to hear of the increasing death toll and infections within their states, shelves will start to go empty. People will refuse to go to work - refuse to send their kids to school. It could get really ugly.

Many of us have cameras for, among other reasons, due to the distrust of fellow humans. The thin veneer of civility will quickly evaporate in conditions like this. I hope I'm wrong. But I am planing for the worst.
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erkme73 said:
Is anyone else starting to get concerned about what's happening with the coronavirus from Wuhan? It's difficult to know what is trustworthy information, and why is hype, but honestly, I'm starting to get a real uneasy feeling about what little 'legitimate' info is being reported from the WHO and CDC.

The latest information indicates the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days, and just today, the CDC announced that someone infected may be infectious for the entire time they are asymptomatic. That's scary since it means infections are happening in areas that haven't seen any symptoms, for possibly a week or more.

As an ER doc, my wife is at the tip of the spear when it comes to treating people. And while I'm sure most that are not in the medical field will learn of local infections from word of mouth or local news reports, those reports come from those on the front line - who ultimately will be exposed before any warnings are issued.

I live in a very, very remote area (closest neighbor is more than a mile away, and the closest town with a Walmart is a 2hr RT drive). If things get bad, I can shelter in place (we have adequate food and supplies), but that will be of little consequence if wife is infected in the process of finding the first case of the virus in our area.

If anyone is concerned, the time to prepare is quickly evaporating. N95 and higher masks are all but sold out on Amazon. Emergency food rations are also expected to be exhausted as more people become aware of how real this threat is. As soon as people begin to hear of the increasing death toll and infections within their states, shelves will start to go empty. People will refuse to go to work - refuse to send their kids to school. It could get really ugly.

Many of us have cameras for, among other reasons, due to the distrust of fellow humans. The thin veneer of civility will quickly evaporate in conditions like this. I hope I'm wrong. But I am planing for the worst.
Click to expand...
erkme73 said:
Is anyone else starting to get concerned about what's happening with the coronavirus from Wuhan? It's difficult to know what is trustworthy information, and why is hype, but honestly, I'm starting to get a real uneasy feeling about what little 'legitimate' info is being reported from the WHO and CDC.

The latest information indicates the virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days, and just today, the CDC announced that someone infected may be infectious for the entire time they are asymptomatic. That's scary since it means infections are happening in areas that haven't seen any symptoms, for possibly a week or more.

I understand that the mortality rate is about 2-3%. Last year the mortality rate for the influenza virus was 7%. So it's not as deadly. I wonder who is dying, elderly, people with other respiratory conditions or just bad luck. That's what I would like to know.
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Been a nurse over 35 years. Been exposed to just about every contagious pathogen (HIV, Hep C, MRSA, infectious TB, etc.). Mostly Psych ER. Lot’s of scary stuff with violent patients. But never have I been so nervous as I am with this one.
Long time ago, took an interest in the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Some of the story’s I read were terrifying. Stuff you could never image. So, I feel my background is somewhat more knowledgeable than most.
Been in Asia (Burma) this past couple of weeks. Read, and watch everything I could. But when I saw the Chinese government lock down 50 million citizens during Chinese New Year, build gigantic instant hospital, suppress civil liberties, and feed conflicting propaganda in the news. Then I started to get really worried. Think the government knows something that scares the shit out of them.
 
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DRZmaui said:
Been a nurse over 35 years. Been exposed to just about every contagious pathogen (HIV, Hep C, MRSA, infectious TB, etc.). Mostly Psych ER. Lot’s of scary stuff with violent patients. But never have I been so nervous as I am with this one.
Long time ago, took an interest in the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Some of the story’s I read were terrifying. Stuff you could never image. So, I feel my background is somewhat more knowledgeable than most.
Been in Asia (Burma) this past couple of weeks. Read, and watch everything I could. But when I saw the Chinese government lock down 50 million citizens during Chinese New Year, build gigantic instant hospital, suppress civil liberties, and feed conflicting propaganda in the news. Then I started to get really worried. Think the government knows something that scares the shit out of them.
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Hi @DRZmaui

Great to have you back in the states, and here on the forum to share your experiences and knowledge with us.

I'm attempting to learn as much as I can about this topic. While scary, I find the topic very interesting - and certainly the more I learn the more it does seem likely that the Spanish Flu of 1918 has significant lesson's which parallel this one.
 
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My wife and I went Pandemic shopping last night at SamsClub to beat the stampede if and when it hits, We were really half joking about why we went to stock up but the more this plays out, Hmmm I guess better be prepped up a bit. Actually not too worried at this point. Anyone else stock up a bit yet ?
 
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c hris527 said:
My wife and I went Pandemic shopping last night at SamsClub to beat the stampede if and when it hits, We were really half joking about why we went to stock up but the more this plays out, Hmmm I guess better be prepped up a bit. Actually not too worried at this point. Anyone else stock up a bit yet ?
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Yes. Console yourself by knowing it's an investment... and insurance policy. If this (hopefully) turns out to be a nothing-burger, then you can simply start using up your excess stock. I've loaded up with enough food/supplies to bug-in for at least 3 months. Since I live in a very remote area, my risk will come from going into town. So my focus is on getting enough materials, supplies, food, meds, fuel, etc to make sure I can avoid doing that until things settle down.

It sounds paranoid, but there's not real cost to this since I'll be able to avoid shopping for quite a while - even if nothing happens.

That said, emergency food kits have double in price, and most are 2-4 weeks out on shipping. Masks are all out of stock online. As more people become aware and think like you and I do, the window to get prepped is rapidly closing.
 
I'm watching the situation but not terribly concerned at this point. It appears that people who are not in high risk groups (elderly, infant, immunocompromised) and who have access to decent medical care are not specifically at much risk.

The early data (including all sources, not just Chinese authorities) suggest it spreads more and is more lethal than influenza, so it will probably be a pretty bad pandemic as it goes. Still, it's amazing what the availability of NSAIDs, antibiotics for secondary infections, and hydration therapy can do to hold down a death toll in a respiratory infection like this.

Great article on NY Times. Here's a chart:

Source:

www.nytimes.com

Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say (Published 2020)

Rapidly rising caseloads alarm researchers, who fear the virus may make its way across the globe. But scientists cannot yet predict how many deaths may result.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Personally, I think this will be more of a global economic issue than anything else. Screenshot_20200202-195848.jpg

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk
 
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Coronavirus Cases:
19,855
of which 2,298 (12%)
in critical condition

Deaths:
426

Recovered:
637
 
I think it's important to remember that as the number of infected per day skyrockets, it will undoubtedly outpace all of the labs' ability to keep up - if it hasn't already. As such, the "confirmed" numbers will be either suppressed, or will have to be estimated. Either way, the numbers are probably far from accurate.
 
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"Dr Li was working at the centre of the outbreak in December when he noticed seven cases of a virus that he thought looked like Sars - the virus that led to a global epidemic in 2003. The cases were thought to come from the Huanan Seafood market in Wuhan and the patients were in quarantine in his hospital.

On 30 December he sent a message to fellow doctors in a chat group warning them about the outbreak and advising they wear protective clothing to avoid infection.

Four days later he had a visit from officials from the Public Security Bureau who told him to sign a letter. In the letter he was accused of "making false comments" that had "severely disturbed the social order".
"We solemnly warn you: If you keep being stubborn, with such impertinence, and continue this illegal activity, you will be brought to justice - is that understood?" Underneath in Dr Li's handwriting is written: "Yes, I do."
He was one of eight people who police said were being investigated for "spreading rumours". "

www.bbc.com

The Chinese doctor who tried to warn others about coronavirus

When Li Wenliang warned about a Sars-like virus at his hospital in Wuhan, authorities tried to silence him.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
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