Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[Murphy625]

I found this interesting reading the back of my Lysol can

Coronavirus is not a virus name, its a virus type.. Like "pickup" is not the name of a Ford F150, its the type of vehicle.

They're called Coronaviruses because of their physical characteristics when looking at them under a microscope. Your Lysol can lists "human coronavirus", but it also lists Influenza, which is also a coronavirus as well as cytomegalovirus and many many others.

SARS and MERS were also cornoaviruses.

 

[d.lux]

Wow, was that recently added?

I was wondering the same thing???

 

[Frankenscript]

Wow, was that recently added?

A common Human Coronavirus is also known as the common cold... The usual cause of the cold is either a Coronavirus or a rhinovirus.

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[d.lux]

Ah, so this is just a "new iteration" of the "coronavirus" type?

Interesting

 

[Murphy625]

Ah, so this is just a "new iteration" of the "coronavirus" type?

Interesting

Its not as simple as being "just another coronavirus".. Some are nastier than others.. like going from a Chevy S10 to a Big Foot Monster truck.. their characteristics and personalities can change.. Where one coronavirus might give you the sniffles for a day or two, others, like MERS or SARS, can kill you.

Or kind of like people.. one person might be shy and bashful, another might be a trained Bravo Company killer.

 

[Arjun]

You can kind of think of it as a different strain, perhaps mutant strain

Ah, so this is just a "new iteration" of the "coronavirus" type?

Interesting

 

[Angel_Eater]

I found this interesting reading the back of my Lysol can

It's on my lysol wipes too.

 

[Frankenscript]

Coronaviruses are nothing new. It's normal for disinfectant bottles to list them under the things the disinfectant is effective against.

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[Arjun]

Everything is overhyped on the news, lol. Pandemic threats will be the new norm; everyday our genetics gets altered by synthetic / artificial sources from all over the world

 

[Alan2000]

Not trying to be offensive to the Chinese people, but China is China, and the numbers we get from their government are always manipulated to their desired script. Read this sad article on what it takes to get to a hospital to get tested or treated and make your own conclusions on whether the 20K infected is anything close to reality. It's not a fear mongering story, just what the average person has to do to try to get to a hospital:

Coronavirus Pummels Wuhan, a City Short of Supplies and Overwhelmed (Published 2020)

It is nearly impossible to get the care they need to treat, or even diagnose, the coronavirus, say residents at the crisis’ center.

www.nytimes.com

It is still too early to know how bad this will get. But in 1 month this coronavirus has pretty much done as much damage as SARS did in 2 years. Going to be a bear to control it with long incubation period with people shedding virus when they appear to be completely healthy. But there are some promising drugs in the pipeline now. For now we avoid crowds, try not to touch the face with hands, and use hand sanitizer a lot. (I make my own using 85% ethyl alcohol which at this concentration works better than most commercial hand sanitizers to kill viruses. They often use less expensive isopropyl alcohol at lower concentrations that is not very effective for killing viruses. ) The key to any alcohol based sanitizer is that you MUST rub your hands together for 30 seconds while the hands are still wet with the sanitizer to kill. Most people rub for 5 seconds and try to get hands dry quickly and that will not destroy the virus' envelope.

Living in CA near major faults, we are prepared for the big 8.0 with lots of water and emergency food (Mountain House dehydrated food actually tastes very good and has a 30 year shelf life.) But with the potential for this virus to spread throughout the world and disrupt supply lines, etc., I did increase my stockpile of food from about 30 days to 45 days. Also purchased a good number of make masks along with other basic protection and sterilization gear if all hell breaks loose and we have to leave our home. Going to be hard to get masks now, but you have to watch what you buy. Many mask are quite poor for virus protection. You should stick to quality N95, P95, N100 or P100 masks with rubber seals. P is more expensive but not any better. They simply are oil resistant. But you can still find some P masks while all the N masks are sold out. Expect to pay $5 or more per mask now if you can find them. These two 3M masks are what I stocked up on a week or so ago: 3M 8211 N95 masks in 10 packs, and 3M 8271 P95 masks.

Have one son who is a RN and another who is extremely knowledgeable about epidemics. One is not overly concerned and the other very concerned. The existing unknown unknowns warrants that you be prepared now, but there is no need to panic yet... : )

 

[d.lux]

Interesting data --

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

So is the proper name now "Novel" coronavirus?

 

[Walrus]

You can get more masks here:

 

[Alan2000]

Its not as simple as being "just another coronavirus".. Some are nastier than others.. like going from a Chevy S10 to a Big Foot Monster truck.. their characteristics and personalities can change.. Where one coronavirus might give you the sniffles for a day or two, others, like MERS or SARS, can kill you.

Or kind of like people.. one person might be shy and bashful, another might be a trained Bravo Company killer.

Yes! The very preliminary CFR for the novel coronavirus is 2% meaning this coronavirus is about perhaps 20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu coronavirus. There is currently a strain of bird flu corona virus in China that is very hard to be transmitted to humans, and hard to spread from human to human. That coronavirus has a 60% CFR. All we need now is for someone there to catch the novel coronavirus and the bird flu virus, get a mutation, and end up with a coronavirus that spreads like wild fire and kills 60% of infected people. Not likely to happen but not impossible. Those posting that this is just another flu virus are being naive.

 

[Frankenscript]

Yes! The very preliminary CFR for the novel coronavirus is 2% meaning this coronavirus is about perhaps 20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu coronavirus. There is currently a strain of bird flu corona virus in China that is very hard to be transmitted to humans, and hard to spread from human to human. That coronavirus has a 60% CFR. All we need now is for someone there to catch the novel coronavirus and the bird flu virus, get a mutation, and end up with a coronavirus that spreads like wild fire and kills 60% of infected people. Not likely to happen but not impossible. Those posting that this is just another flu virus are being naive.

Keep in mind this novel Coronavirus originally presented as an atypical pneumonia and many of the deaths early and still are from people who didn't get proper treatment for it. It is likely that the death rate will drop as new cases start to be identified early and high quality care is administered.

It is also likely that the death rate will stabilize significantly below SARS, MERS, and such.

That's not to say this isn't a nasty bug. It is great that the world is pouncing on it as we may yet be able to snuff it out.

The daily numbers we see don't account for the fact that many people certainly had this strain but got well on their own without ever being diagnosed, and the "cured" numbers by definition always lag weeks behind because it takes a while to certify them.

This is a significant global health event and the up to two week incubation --during some portion of which some people are somewhat contagious-- is the scariest part, at least for me, because it means it will take longer to lock this thing down.

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[Angel_Eater]

You can get more masks here:
View attachment 55114

Just use rubberbands to strap lysol wipes over your mouth. LOL

But dang, 50% off during this panic is a crazy good deal! I'll order 100 boxes and share them with my neighbors! 20 days is plenty of time before this hits my neck of the woods!

 

[guykuo]

Now that it starting to break out in India, we should finally start getting data with less central party adjustments.

This isn't something that "blows over." The virus will spread and have a permanent, world wide, source pool. This is now a part of life. Thanks, creator!
We might see it lessen this summer, but I would expect a resurgence in the fall.

 

[mat200]

The shutdowns due to the corona virus will impact the supply chain and earnings.

For example, US made cars have about 15% of parts made in China.
Apple sells a significant amount of products in China.
China's economy is 4x greater than it was in 2003 when SARS hit, and is now a key part of the global supply chain.

How China's novel coronavirus outbreak is disrupting the global supply chain

The spread of novel coronavirus in China has focused great attention on public health in that country and around the world. But the outbreak is also having a major economic impact, with quarantines imposed, flights suspended and factories shuttered. William Brangham reports and talks to The...

www.pbs.org

 

[Q™]

Another missing white girl. And should hordes of corona-crazed cannibals invade my crib I got a battle pack of South African .308 to ease their pain. But perhaps a 25,000,000 die-off is what Americans need to help us come to our collective senses and realize how good we got it...and how fortunate we are. Now where the fuQ did I put my zombie smiley?

 

[Alan2000]

A funeral home in Wuhan is pleading for help from exhausted staff. They are reporting that as of 01/28 they have been working 24/7 burning 100 bodies per day. (China passed decree that funerals are not allowed and Corona bodies must be cremated right away.) That’s about 700 bodies from that one funeral home alone in about 1 week. The official death count for all victims is under 500. Go figure, China stats...

The tone in USA is very gradually changing from “The risk of virus spreading is low” to....
“Total containment isn’t in the cards, said Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “Given the nature of this virus and how it’s spreading, that would be impossible. Our goal is to slow this thing down.”

Using overly conservative official numbers, Ro is close to 3. Meaning each infected person is infecting 3 more people. Solid scientific models place true level of contamination will in 6 figure numbers.

it is very hard for people to even get to a hospital now due to lack of transportation and emergency services in Wuhan and other hard hit areas. Once they get there, there are hundreds of patients in line ahead of them. If they wait there 5–10 hours to maybe see someone, they probably will be told the hospital is full, there is no testing kit, and to go home to self isolate.

There may indeed be a lot of people with mild symptoms that are recovering on their own which would make the CFR lower. Maybe the CFR will be much lower than SARS CFR of about 20%. The problem is that this one is so much more contagious that so many more people will get infected, collapsing the health care systems, so that people who would otherwise survive with some basic care, will die because they can’t get any care at all. So you can have a lower CFR with corona but end up with more deaths due to disruptions in health care systems. I seriously question if it starts to spread rapidly in the USA if we will do much better than China as there are only so many hospital beds, ventilators, etc.

The CDC still has its head in the sand here by not testing anyone unless they came from infected region in China or had contact with infected person. This means that if you caught it from a door handle last week, and have symptoms, you will not be tested in USA. So we really don’t have a good picture of how many people in USA are infected now. In a couple more weeks we’ll have a better idea.

Remember, only 2 weeks ago world wide infected were 329. Today official number is 25,000. At current Ro it will double every 6 days. Do the math and take precautions to protect yourself and your family for what appears to be shaping up as a significant pandemic, even to 1st world nations.

 

[guykuo]

tencent leaked some info

According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker", showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Tencent screengrab as of late Feb 1, showing far higher infections.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day.

Screengrab showing higher numbers (left), chart showing "official" numbers (right). (Internet image)
This was not the first time Tencent has done this: as Taiwan Times notes, Chinese netizens have noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.
This is where it gets even more bizarre: contrary to claiming that this was just a "fat finger" mistyping of data, observant Chinese netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day's data which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers.
This led many in the mainland to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.
In short, two camps have emerged: one, the more optimistic, speculates that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. The other, far more pessimistically inclined, believes that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers, as "the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic."