Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

fenderman

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I'm just going by what we've seen in the past week here in the USA.. Every day, the number of infected is 30% higher (or more) than the previous day.

Here, lets do an experiment... current infections in the USA are at 327 (per worldometer at this moment).
By tomorrow at this time, it will be around 425. By Sunday 552. By Monday 718.

Lets see if my predictions hold. You can come back on Monday and check this post and either say I'm right or that I'm wrong.

Now here's the kicker.. China is a bonafide police state and they have the power and authority to quarantine their entire population.. come out and will will arrest you or shoot you.. Pretty effective way of stopping the spread of a contagion.

I don't think that would work in the USA.. Only thing we have going for us is an over-all lower population density.

I hope I'm wrong.
Again, you are not analyzing the data correctly. The number of infected are not increasing by those numbers. The number of TESTED are increasing. You are wrong, bad math bad science.
 

EMPIRETECANDY

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So far, the number of confirmed cases is rising 30 to 40 percent over the previous days numbers... So take the number of infected today, multiply by 1.3, and that's the number that will be infected in tomorrows totals. Now do that 30 times (1 month) and watch the numbers. Then multiply by 3.4% to get the death rate. A little bit of math and we can extrapolate those numbers out for the rest of the year. Its not pretty.
China has bit higher rate of death in Wuhan, because the local medical system totally crashed. Other places esp for the big cities the death rate is very low. Like shanghai has around 20millons people, has 342 infected, only 3 death.
 

Parley

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I'm going opposite of the radical predictions - less than 100 dead in the US this year and certainly FAR less than the regular flu.
In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.
 

mat200

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In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.
If the same number get sick :
42.9 million x 0.6% CFR ( based on Korean data noted earlier ) = 42.9 million * .006 = 257,400 deaths.
 

Arjun

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I'm on Long Island and not too surprised with how this trend is moving in this part of New York State. Its a densely packed area from Connecticut, to the city, to New Jersey across the river. :facepalm:

Arjun...where in New York are you?
 

Arjun

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I applaud China for their wise and prompt action in terms of containment. The same system needs to be deployed around the rest of the world, especially here in the USA. When you're not feeling well, stay home. Yes, there will be a temporary disturbance in commerce rippled around the world, but then again its temporary and totally understandable. Do yourself and others a favor, if you're sick for whatever reason stay home, stay isolated until you feel better. Most Coronavirus patients will feel asymptomatic initially, but if you feel that you came in contact with an infected individual, do the wise thing and self-contain yourself for at least two weeks.
 

Arjun

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Again, the media needs to stop targeting specific regions around the world.
Perhaps the greatest solution is for everyone to go vegetarian and seek plant-based protein to keep their tummies full ;)

 

Arjun

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I feel like we can see the numbers drop soon, thanks to warming temperature. The only problem would be the south, which is more susceptible to the humid and tropical climates
 

TonyR

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I'm not saying the threat from Corona is not serious but I will go on record to state that the media hype has a leftist political slant. CNN and MSNBC viewership has declined extensively in recent months and they will stop at nothing to change that.

If they can air news 24/7 about the impending doom then they will get more viewers; viewers fearing for their lives, not viewers tuning in to hear of the latest fake, slanted story about our president. But numbers are numbers, so they will get more viewers and commercial advertisement fees will go back to "normal".

What should be a concern for all and have unbiased, non-partisan reporting has become just another vehicle for our elected congressional clowns to ride in on their way to the Capitol Hill circus.

Meanwhile, the overblown fears stoked by the media will affect the stock market so the next and upcoming round of leftist media hype can blame the Trump administration for that as well.

It has been said that Trump could find a cure for cancer and he'd be lynched by the left and their in-pocket media for putting doctors and nurses out of work. :headbang:
 

Q™

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If they can air news 24/7 about the impending doom then they will get more viewers; viewers fearing for their lives
I just counted thirteen (13) stories on FoxNews.com and sixteen (16) on breitbart.com which referenced Coronavirus @TonyR.

So maybe...just maybe...both sides are using Coronavirus to distort the truth in order to rally their faithful.

Ya think? smiley1.gif
 

c hris527

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Again, the media needs to stop targeting specific regions around the world.
Perhaps the greatest solution is for everyone to go vegetarian and seek plant-based protein to keep their tummies full ;)

That Solution about eating plants will not be happening in my house anytime soon.
 

dudemaar

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Quote from a Canadian Doctor.

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.
I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.
What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.
I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?
I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.
But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.
I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.
Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

Dr.
Abdu Sharkawy
 
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mat200

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Medcram - discussion on 2 types of the SARS-COV-2 virus.

S type and L type which Chinese doctors / phds discuss in a paper.

One is considered more lethal, and was dominant in Wuhan.


The paper which was discussed:

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2
Xiaolu Tang, Changcheng Wu, Xiang Li, Yuhe Song, Xinmin Yao, Xinkai Wu, Yuange Duan, Hong Zhang, Yirong Wang, Zhaohui Qian ... Show moreAuthor Notes
National Science Review, nwaa036, On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2
Published: 03 March 2020

"...the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive ..."

 
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bigredfish

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Quote from a Canadian Doctor.

I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.
I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.
What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.
I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?
I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.
But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.
I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.
Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

Dr.
Abdu Sharkawy
Agree with most all of what you say doc, and you of course know wayyyyyyy more about it than I ever want to.

That said, with something, according to the latest WHO statement, north if 3% mortality vs .1% for the common flu, it IS different. And it seems to us laymen to be more contagious...

We’ve made preparations best we can to be on house lockdown worst case for 45 days. What we don’t use are just early hurricane prep we do anyway.

Until and if the authorities tell us different, we’ll go to work and lead as normal a life as possible, with our bottle of chlorox wipes at our side. We won’t be attending any mass gatherings, traveling by public transport, or hitting the malls, movies, or restaurants. So yes I suppose we’re contributing to the economic problem.

But frankly when world governments, AND the medical/scientific community are so obviously worried and not on the same page, us worker bees go into self preservation mode pretty quickly.
 

Q™

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What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world
Some of us have been doing this for decades now; that's not a "loss of reason" but rather responsible citizenship.

slap.gif
 

Q™

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This is what happened after I listed a box of Costco anti-viral/bacterial wipes on eBay for $500.00 which included the following verbiage...

"This listing is real; we will ship you this item for $500.00. However, this item was originally purchased from Costco for $9.99; this eBay sale is an experiment to determine if societal panic can overcome common sense."

Costco said:
After reviewing your account, we've had to take the following action: Some or all of your listings may have been removed. A list of any removed items will be listed further down in this email. We have credited all associated fees except for payments processing fees and the final value fee for your listing(s). Newly banned items (masks and sanitizers in the US)eBay is currently not allowing listings for certain masks and sanitizing products due to concerns that inflated prices for these products may violate applicable laws or regulations. Do not relist this item. You are also required to immediately review and update all your other listings for sale that do not comply with these rules. If you do not follow this policy in the future, this may result in the removal of your listings and the suspension of your account. If you have any concerns or questions, click "Help & Contact" at the top of most eBay pages. We appreciate your understanding.
kirkland.jpg
 

Q™

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It is certainly OBVIOUS that Costco is preventing the distribution of life-saving anti-Covid-19 products to country-loving Americans in favor of state-run socialistic health-care programs at the expense of free-market capitalism! This is simply another clear example of dangerous-leftist-liberal-traitoristic-socialist-progressives who hate America (love Venezuela) and want Americans to die simply to bring down the President! Right @TonyR ???!!!

Sincerely,
Dr. Q™
PHD, Trollogy & Social Engineering
 
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fenderman

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It is certainly OBVIOUS that Costco is preventing the distribution of life-saving anti-Covid-19 products to country-loving Americans in favor of state-run socialistic health-care programs at the expense of free-market capitalism! This is simply another clear example of dangerous-leftist-liberal-traitoristic-socialist-progressives who hate America (love Venezuela) and want Americans to die simply to bring down the President! Right @TonyR ???!!!

Signed,
Dr. Q™
PHD, Trollogy & Social Engineering
That is correct. It is none of ebays or the governments business to regulate the sale of disinfectant wipes. If someone wants to pay 500 for it they should be able to.
 
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