At some point, the counting becomes impractical. I give it another couple of weeks. Just watched the scene from a hospital in Tehran... It was literally a cloned video of the mayhem and chaos in the early days of Wuhan - except they were all Arab people. Unbelievable. And with the sheer number of people infected in various countries that visited Iran/Italy - and the deaths in Iran, you do have to wonder if the virus hasn't become more virulent over there. Scary times. Be prepared.
Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?
- Thread starter erkme73
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At some point, the counting becomes impractical. I give it another couple of weeks. Just watched the scene from a hospital in Tehran... It was literally a cloned video of the mayhem and chaos in the early days of Wuhan - except they were all Arab people. Unbelievable. And with the sheer number of people infected in various countries that visited Iran/Italy - and the deaths in Iran, you do have to wonder if the virus hasn't become more virulent over there. Scary times. Be prepared.
You can get FAR more than 2 years out of them if you refrigerate or freeze them in the absence of oxygen.
Two ways:
1) Put them in a Mylar bag, throw in an oxygen absober, and stick them in your freezer.
2) Put them in a Mason Jar, pull a vacuum on the jar and stick it in your freezer.
You can make them last 10 to 15 years or more that way.
The gov did a test on the normal shelf life of a bunch of drugs and found the expiration date of 2 years to be ridiculous. A lot of the drugs they tested after 5 to 7 years still had 90% or more of their potency.
Agreed. The main point is that they do not become toxic if/when they expire. Many people toss meds because they are concerned they can be harmful if taken after their expiration date. And for some (very limited) meds, that is true... but not for the ones listed above. Worst case, they become ineffective.
fenderman
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He is spot on. This is a milder version of the flu. This thread with this hysteria is cute.
Rationalization Number 1)
The PhD Epidemiologist(s) from Harvard with decades of experience seem to think its pretty serious. China shut down their entire country costing them billions.. they thought it was pretty serious as well.
Rationalization Number 2)
Lets listen to an orange guy who didn't even know Puerto Rico was a US Territory..
Within a few months, we will know for sure which rationalization was the better choice.
fenderman
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Lots of other professionals think its not. One putz from Haaaarvard is not the be all and end all.
China was reacting to the man made panic.
Trump has been a fantastic president. Ill take a strong border, job market and stock market over socialist lunatics any day.
The numbers speak for themselves. The death rates are extremely low and flu like once you factor in those that are asymptomatic or have not been tested.
But your hatred of the "orange man" explains why you are trying to overblow this as if this is his fault. try again.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
Q™
IPCT Contributor
Arguing with a website forum administrator is like arguing with a cop.. Nothing productive will come from it.
I wish you good luck and hope you stay safe.
fenderman
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No need to hope. Ill be just fine, no mask, no purell. Its one thing to generate hysteria for no reason, there is no reason to bring politics into something this basic. Every freaking time they have told us there is going to be a disaster from xyz its been a nothingburger.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
So far, the number of confirmed cases is rising 30 to 40 percent over the previous days numbers... So take the number of infected today, multiply by 1.3, and that's the number that will be infected in tomorrows totals. Now do that 30 times (1 month) and watch the numbers. Then multiply by 3.4% to get the death rate. A little bit of math and we can extrapolate those numbers out for the rest of the year. Its not pretty.
fenderman
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3.4 percent is not the death rate of those infected with corona. Again, that is a number that does not factor in those who are asymptomatic or were not tested. In south korea where they are testing many more folks the death rate is 0.6 percent. What ‘wonderful laboratory’ South Korea can teach world about Covid-19
This is much closer to the flu. The cdc estimates 34-49 million americans got the flu since october 2019 resulting in 20k to 52k deaths from october 2019 to match 2020 and we are not done yet. Corona is nothing.
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Q™
IPCT Contributor
The drop-dead rate is being reported at 2% max I believe...not factoring in (what I believe are) the vast majority of unreported cases. In addition, your 30% climb rate seems overly aggressive. Here's what that looks like...
And, projecting out to April 28, 2020, the entire population of the United States will be infected, 11,000,000 Americans will be dead, and the 4th of July holiday is going to suck.
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Well now you said something I can mostly agree with.. They've cried wolf too many times and now the townsfolk are skeptical.
Unfortunately, most Americans know as much about science as they know about 5000 year old Egyptian cuisine.. so they are incapable of recognizing the difference between a potential threat and and actual danger. And I think its going to come and bite them in the ass.
And they're not saying this is going to be a disaster.. This is not an SHTF event or anything that is going to collapse civilization next month or next year.. But its not the flu either.. more like something in between those two. Which end of that spectrum it comes closer to will depend on how we react to it.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
fenderman
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There is noting in the science that makes this worse then the flu. In fact its appears to be much more benign and many are asymptomatic. There is not a shred of scientific data that indicates this is worse than the flu. The reaction here was quick and swift with the administration limiting entry from those affected countries despite cries of outrage. When this blows over, you will say the same thing next time.
I'm just going by what we've seen in the past week here in the USA.. Every day, the number of infected is 30% higher (or more) than the previous day.
Here, lets do an experiment... current infections in the USA are at 327 (per worldometer at this moment).
By tomorrow at this time, it will be around 425. By Sunday 552. By Monday 718.
Lets see if my predictions hold. You can come back on Monday and check this post and either say I'm right or that I'm wrong.
Now here's the kicker.. China is a bonafide police state and they have the power and authority to quarantine their entire population.. come out and will will arrest you or shoot you.. Pretty effective way of stopping the spread of a contagion.
I don't think that would work in the USA.. Only thing we have going for us is an over-all lower population density.
I hope I'm wrong.