Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[erkme73]

33 additional confirmed positive cases in Westchester County, NY

At some point, the counting becomes impractical. I give it another couple of weeks. Just watched the scene from a hospital in Tehran... It was literally a cloned video of the mayhem and chaos in the early days of Wuhan - except they were all Arab people. Unbelievable. And with the sheer number of people infected in various countries that visited Iran/Italy - and the deaths in Iran, you do have to wonder if the virus hasn't become more virulent over there. Scary times. Be prepared.

 

[Murphy625]

This cannot be overstated. 6 weeks ago, when it was becoming evident that this thing was a statistical certainty hit the whole globe, I bought about a grand in fish ABX from fishmox. Wife gave me a list of doses and types. Shelf life on most is 2 years - and none of the ones I ordered become toxic. Less effective, yes, but not dangerous. Obviously ABX are not to treat viral infections - but secondary bacterial (or primary bacterial) infections are very common after the body is weakened by a virus.

Amoxicillin 500mg. (100-200 tabs)
Keflex 500 mg (100-200 tabs)
Clindamycin 150mg (300-400 tabs)
Sulfa 800/160mg (100-200 tabs)
Metronidazole 500mg (30-60 tabs)
Doxy 100 mg (100-200 tabs)
Fluconazole 100 mg (30 tabs)
Ciprofloxacin 500 mg (100 tabs)
Azithromycin 250mg (60 tabs)

It is why a good family practice doctor won't prescribe ABX until a patient has been symptomatic for at least 7 days. The consensus being that most infections are viral, and most burn out within a week. Any longer, or particularly if there has been improvement followed by worsening symptoms, it is generally bacterial.

Wife could have written for all of these, but not in quantity where she felt comfortable. Ironically, most of these are darn near free at local pharmacies even without insurance. But, without a script, you have to get them from the fish suppliers. Not ideal, but I bet you'd be willing to gnaw off your own right arm to get some if the time comes. Dying of sepsis is no way to go.

You can get FAR more than 2 years out of them if you refrigerate or freeze them in the absence of oxygen.

Two ways:
1) Put them in a Mylar bag, throw in an oxygen absober, and stick them in your freezer.
2) Put them in a Mason Jar, pull a vacuum on the jar and stick it in your freezer.

You can make them last 10 to 15 years or more that way.

The gov did a test on the normal shelf life of a bunch of drugs and found the expiration date of 2 years to be ridiculous. A lot of the drugs they tested after 5 to 7 years still had 90% or more of their potency.

 

[erkme73]

You can get FAR more than 2 years out of them if you refrigerate or freeze them in the absence of oxygen.

Two ways:
1) Put them in a Mylar bag, throw in an oxygen absober, and stick them in your freezer.
2) Put them in a Mason Jar, pull a vacuum on the jar and stick it in your freezer.

You can make them last 10 to 15 years or more that way.

The gov did a test on the normal shelf life of a bunch of drugs and found the expiration date of 2 years to be ridiculous. A lot of the drugs they tested after 5 to 7 years still had 90% or more of their potency.

Agreed. The main point is that they do not become toxic if/when they expire. Many people toss meds because they are concerned they can be harmful if taken after their expiration date. And for some (very limited) meds, that is true... but not for the ones listed above. Worst case, they become ineffective.

 

[fenderman]

President Trump said he believes people infected with the novel coronavirus may get better "by sitting around and even going to work." Apparently its not as bad as everyone is saying.

He is spot on. This is a milder version of the flu. This thread with this hysteria is cute.

 

[Murphy625]

He is spot on. This is a milder version of the flu. This thread with this hysteria is cute.

Rationalization Number 1)
The PhD Epidemiologist(s) from Harvard with decades of experience seem to think its pretty serious. China shut down their entire country costing them billions.. they thought it was pretty serious as well.

Rationalization Number 2)
Lets listen to an orange guy who didn't even know Puerto Rico was a US Territory..

Within a few months, we will know for sure which rationalization was the better choice.

 

[Arjun]

A lab in Singapore is stating that the virus is likely to have been traced to bats

 

[fenderman]

Rationalization Number 1)
The PhD Epidemiologist(s) from Harvard with decades of experience seem to think its pretty serious. China shut down their entire country costing them billions.. they thought it was pretty serious as well.

Rationalization Number 2)
Lets listen to an orange guy who didn't even know Puerto Rico was a US Territory..

Within a few months, we will know for sure which rationalization was the better choice.

Lots of other professionals think its not. One putz from Haaaarvard is not the be all and end all.
China was reacting to the man made panic.
Trump has been a fantastic president. Ill take a strong border, job market and stock market over socialist lunatics any day.
The numbers speak for themselves. The death rates are extremely low and flu like once you factor in those that are asymptomatic or have not been tested.
But your hatred of the "orange man" explains why you are trying to overblow this as if this is his fault. try again.

 

[Q™]

Lots of other professionals think its not. One putz from Haaaarvard is not the be all and end all.

This is certain: we shall know for sure in the not to distant future.


.

 

[Q™]

33 additional confirmed positive cases in Westchester County, NY

Arjun...where in New York are you?

 

[Murphy625]

Lots of other professionals think its not. One putz from Haaaarvard is not the be all and end all.
China was reacting to the man made panic.
Trump has been a fantastic president. Ill take a strong border, job market and stock market over socialist lunatics any day.
The numbers speak for themselves. The death rates are extremely low and flu like once you factor in those that are asymptomatic or have not been tested.
But your hatred of the "orange man" explains why you are trying to overblow this as if this is his fault. try again.

Arguing with a website forum administrator is like arguing with a cop.. Nothing productive will come from it.

I wish you good luck and hope you stay safe.

 

[fenderman]

Arguing with a website forum administrator is like arguing with a cop.. Nothing productive will come from it.

I wish you good luck and hope you stay safe.

No need to hope. Ill be just fine, no mask, no purell. Its one thing to generate hysteria for no reason, there is no reason to bring politics into something this basic. Every freaking time they have told us there is going to be a disaster from xyz its been a nothingburger.

 

[Q™]

Arguing with a website forum administrator is like arguing with a cop.. Nothing productive will come from it.

Brother: arguing with @fenderman is like arguing with the fuQin' Grim Reaper.

 

[fenderman]

Brother: arguing with @fenderman is like arguing with the fuQin' Grim Reaper.
View attachment 56886

cant wait to meet the reaper and see that argument.

 

[Murphy625]

This is certain: we shall know for sure in the not to distant future.

View attachment 56884
.

So far, the number of confirmed cases is rising 30 to 40 percent over the previous days numbers... So take the number of infected today, multiply by 1.3, and that's the number that will be infected in tomorrows totals. Now do that 30 times (1 month) and watch the numbers. Then multiply by 3.4% to get the death rate. A little bit of math and we can extrapolate those numbers out for the rest of the year. Its not pretty.

 

[fenderman]

So far, the number of confirmed cases is rising 30 to 40 percent over the previous days numbers... So take the number of infected today, multiply by 1.3, and that's the number that will be infected in tomorrows totals. Now do that 30 times (1 month) and watch the numbers. Then multiply by 3.4% to get the death rate. A little bit of math and we can extrapolate those numbers out for the rest of the year. Its not pretty.

3.4 percent is not the death rate of those infected with corona. Again, that is a number that does not factor in those who are asymptomatic or were not tested. In south korea where they are testing many more folks the death rate is 0.6 percent. What ‘wonderful laboratory’ South Korea can teach world about Covid-19
This is much closer to the flu. The cdc estimates 34-49 million americans got the flu since october 2019 resulting in 20k to 52k deaths from october 2019 to match 2020 and we are not done yet. Corona is nothing.

 

[Q™]

take the number of infected today, multiply by 1.3, and that's the number that will be infected in tomorrows totals

The drop-dead rate is being reported at 2% max I believe...not factoring in (what I believe are) the vast majority of unreported cases. In addition, your 30% climb rate seems overly aggressive. Here's what that looks like...



And, projecting out to April 28, 2020, the entire population of the United States will be infected, 11,000,000 Americans will be dead, and the 4th of July holiday is going to suck.

 

[Murphy625]

No need to hope. Ill be just fine, no mask, no purell. Its one thing to generate hysteria for no reason, there is no reason to bring politics into something this basic. Every freaking time they have told us there is going to be a disaster from xyz its been a nothingburger.

Well now you said something I can mostly agree with.. They've cried wolf too many times and now the townsfolk are skeptical.

Unfortunately, most Americans know as much about science as they know about 5000 year old Egyptian cuisine.. so they are incapable of recognizing the difference between a potential threat and and actual danger. And I think its going to come and bite them in the ass.

And they're not saying this is going to be a disaster.. This is not an SHTF event or anything that is going to collapse civilization next month or next year.. But its not the flu either.. more like something in between those two. Which end of that spectrum it comes closer to will depend on how we react to it.

 

[Q™]

They've cried wolf too many times and now the townsfolk are skeptical

There it is

 

[fenderman]

Well now you said something I can mostly agree with.. They've cried wolf too many times and now the townsfolk are skeptical.

Unfortunately, most Americans know as much about science as they know about 5000 year old Egyptian cuisine.. so they are incapable of recognizing the difference between a potential threat and and actual danger. And I think its going to come and bite them in the ass.

And they're not saying this is going to be a disaster.. This is not an SHTF event or anything that is going to collapse civilization next month or next year.. But its not the flu either.. more like something in between those two. Which end of that spectrum it comes closer to will depend on how we react to it.

There is noting in the science that makes this worse then the flu. In fact its appears to be much more benign and many are asymptomatic. There is not a shred of scientific data that indicates this is worse than the flu. The reaction here was quick and swift with the administration limiting entry from those affected countries despite cries of outrage. When this blows over, you will say the same thing next time.

 

[Murphy625]

The drop-dead rate is being reported at 2% max I believe...not factoring in (what I believe are) the vast majority of unreported cases. In addition, your 30% climb rate seems overly aggressive. Here's what that looks like...

View attachment 56888

I'm just going by what we've seen in the past week here in the USA.. Every day, the number of infected is 30% higher (or more) than the previous day.

Here, lets do an experiment... current infections in the USA are at 327 (per worldometer at this moment).
By tomorrow at this time, it will be around 425. By Sunday 552. By Monday 718.

Lets see if my predictions hold. You can come back on Monday and check this post and either say I'm right or that I'm wrong.

Now here's the kicker.. China is a bonafide police state and they have the power and authority to quarantine their entire population.. come out and will will arrest you or shoot you.. Pretty effective way of stopping the spread of a contagion.

I don't think that would work in the USA.. Only thing we have going for us is an over-all lower population density.

I hope I'm wrong.