Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?
- Thread starter erkme73
- Start date
bigredfish
Known around here
bigredfish
Known around here
I say that, but given that the President is set to announce some economic assistance tomorrow and the Fed May well cut the rate even more, you could see a pop in the next day or two.
This is a risk taker traders market right now. Unless you’re well versed and have some risk tolerance, I’d stay on the sidelines.
This is a risk taker traders market right now. Unless you’re well versed and have some risk tolerance, I’d stay on the sidelines.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
I moved $25k in last week. I may move another $25k in tomorrow. But honestly, WTF do I know.
bigredfish
Known around here
Probably as much as anyone else!
Tomorrow may well be a great day to buy in? but my stomach can only handle so much.
Timing it is impossible. You have to ask yourself
1- will it likely go a bunch lower?
2- what is my time horizon? Can I wait 7-8 years to recover back to breakeven like many did in the 2008 meltdown?
3- are valuations low enough that stocks are “on sale”? And.. we’re they too fricken inflated BEFORE this anyway?
4- do I have enough Pepto in the medicine cabinet?
I’ll likely move some back into the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, but I couldn’t tell you when....
Tomorrow may well be a great day to buy in? but my stomach can only handle so much.
Timing it is impossible. You have to ask yourself
1- will it likely go a bunch lower?
2- what is my time horizon? Can I wait 7-8 years to recover back to breakeven like many did in the 2008 meltdown?
3- are valuations low enough that stocks are “on sale”? And.. we’re they too fricken inflated BEFORE this anyway?
4- do I have enough Pepto in the medicine cabinet?
I’ll likely move some back into the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, but I couldn’t tell you when....
Q™
IPCT Contributor
bigredfish
Known around here
Parley
Known around here
Stock futures are in positive territory for tomorrow as I type this.
Just read a first-hand account from a doctor in Italy that will curl any health care worker's blood. As if my wife needed any more reason to freak. The doctor there works at a hospital that prepared for the arrival of their first case. They canceled all elective surgeries. The converted countless regular beds to ICU beds. All before a single COVID patient arrived. Despite all of this, the hospital has become a war zone. 15-20 new infected requiring ICU every day with no room for any of them. Deaths beyond anything they've seen. The doctor has been at the hospital for 2 weeks straight to help with the load. It is an unmitigated disaster. And this is with a hospital/staff that took proactive measures.
By contrast, US hospitals - including wife's Alma mater - Tampa General (a level 1 trauma center) - are publicly proclaiming this won't be any worse than a severe flu season. Whether that is their behind-the-scenes approach, or just an attempt to prevent public panic I don't know. But it certainly disarms the public, and deprives them of the ability to make preparations.
It is a statistical certainty that what is happening in Iran/Italy/SK/Japan WILL happen here. We will all likely get infected. And with 15-20% requiring 3+ weeks of ICU treatment (60% of which will perish), our hospitals and workers will be absolutely destroyed. 30 yo doctors are dying because of extreme viral load (from repeated exposure), and reduced immune response from exhaustion and lack of proper nutrition. This is a foreshadowing of what is coming. Anyone not taking any of this seriously will be caught off guard.
Washington State has run out of masks - and is now requiring health workers to use masks ONLY on the patients - not the workers. IOW, the workers are working naked due to lack of PPE. This is unforgivable. And this is before ANY real surge of patients. There are dedicated departments whose sole purpose is to anticipate inventory levels - and they're so far behind, it is putting workers at unspeakable risk - which in turn puts the public at risk.
By contrast, US hospitals - including wife's Alma mater - Tampa General (a level 1 trauma center) - are publicly proclaiming this won't be any worse than a severe flu season. Whether that is their behind-the-scenes approach, or just an attempt to prevent public panic I don't know. But it certainly disarms the public, and deprives them of the ability to make preparations.
It is a statistical certainty that what is happening in Iran/Italy/SK/Japan WILL happen here. We will all likely get infected. And with 15-20% requiring 3+ weeks of ICU treatment (60% of which will perish), our hospitals and workers will be absolutely destroyed. 30 yo doctors are dying because of extreme viral load (from repeated exposure), and reduced immune response from exhaustion and lack of proper nutrition. This is a foreshadowing of what is coming. Anyone not taking any of this seriously will be caught off guard.
Washington State has run out of masks - and is now requiring health workers to use masks ONLY on the patients - not the workers. IOW, the workers are working naked due to lack of PPE. This is unforgivable. And this is before ANY real surge of patients. There are dedicated departments whose sole purpose is to anticipate inventory levels - and they're so far behind, it is putting workers at unspeakable risk - which in turn puts the public at risk.
fenderman
Staff member
- Mar 9, 2014
- 36,892
- 21,408
Please, more fear mongering nonsense. Your numbers are not accurate even when based on the fake inflated death rate of 3%. If 15-20 percent need icu and 60% of those will perish, then the death rate would have to be 9-12%.
The n95 masks are still available on the legitimate medical supply market. I have a close friend that sells medical supplies. He asked if I wanted masks. I said "no, sell them and make some money on it". If they need more masks in Washington state they can contact me and ill point them in the right direction.
Most importantly, even if we take your statements as true, the reason why there is a shortage of masks, cleaning supplies, toilet paper is because folks post nonsense like this. This is essentially a more contagious flu with most of those infected suffering LESS severe symptoms than the flu. I would take it over the flu any day.
mat200
IPCT Contributor
- Jan 17, 2017
- 15,489
- 26,055
So far what I found on the message on limited mask usage message associated with Valley Medical Center:
( looks like concern if about hospital capacity to handle the number of patients they predict will need critical care, and thus even if 80% are mild cases - it is the 5% of those who require critical care which can swamp the system. )
“Limit mask use to on the patient only,” read a Wednesday email from a Valley Medical Center (VMC) staffer to nurses, referring to surgical masks. “Staff will no longer wear masks, unless providing a care procedure requiring removal of the patient’s mask.”
According to the email: “Masks are in critical supply” and that “due to disaster conditions VMC will be implementing alternate standards of care to conserve masks for critical and surgical use.”
About an hour after the message went out, staff objected and it was retracted, according to Liz Nolan, a VMC spokeswoman, and the hospital found other ways to conserve and nurses were allotted one mask per shift.
..
“We run really close to the bone,” said Julie Fischer, an associate research professor in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Georgetown University Medical Center. “Our systems are pretty fragile. They don’t have a lot of slack, a lot of room, for surging over a long period of time.”
www.seattletimes.com
( looks like concern if about hospital capacity to handle the number of patients they predict will need critical care, and thus even if 80% are mild cases - it is the 5% of those who require critical care which can swamp the system. )
“Limit mask use to on the patient only,” read a Wednesday email from a Valley Medical Center (VMC) staffer to nurses, referring to surgical masks. “Staff will no longer wear masks, unless providing a care procedure requiring removal of the patient’s mask.”
According to the email: “Masks are in critical supply” and that “due to disaster conditions VMC will be implementing alternate standards of care to conserve masks for critical and surgical use.”
About an hour after the message went out, staff objected and it was retracted, according to Liz Nolan, a VMC spokeswoman, and the hospital found other ways to conserve and nurses were allotted one mask per shift.
..
“We run really close to the bone,” said Julie Fischer, an associate research professor in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Georgetown University Medical Center. “Our systems are pretty fragile. They don’t have a lot of slack, a lot of room, for surging over a long period of time.”
Seattle health care providers scramble to ration medical supplies as coronavirus cases climb
Several health care providers in the region say they are running low, or will run low, on protective medical supplies, such as masks, respirators and gowns, that keep workers safe.
www.seattletimes.com
The market all over the world are crazy. Can buy some stock soon I think. China data down to 17 yesterday, if lucky this week we will see good control in China.
Dow Futures Are Climbing After Trump Proposes Tax Cuts to Support the Coronavirus Stricken Economy
At a press conference Monday, Trump said that he would seek a “payroll tax cut or relief, substantial relief, very substantial relief” for workers. That helped futures on the major market indexes reverse what had been losses after Italy went on lockdown.
www.barrons.com
Q™
IPCT Contributor
America held hostage by coronavirus
www.politico.com
PALACE INTRIGUE
The blame game starts: White House officials and staffers are pointing fingers at each other for bungling the response to the fast-moving crisis at the same time they are figuring out what that response should be, reports POLITICO’s Nancy Cook.
Everyone does agree on one thing — the crisis is someone else’s fault. Officials are pointing fingers at national security staff, the vice president’s office and the CDC. The back-biting and scramble to head off a precipitous economic slide is a continuation of the administration’s early attempts to contain the virus.
Azar is urging the administration to shut down the cruise industry, but the White House is worried that such a move would threaten the Florida economy heading into the 2020 election. Right now the Defense Department is providing four facilities to quarantine about 3,000 Grand Princess cruise ship passengers after a case was found on board. Azar will provide an update on the administration’s response Tuesday afternoon at a forum about biosimilars.
THE GLOBAL FIGHT
Leaders across Europe hoped coronavirus would be a mere blip, with low economic impact. Instead, Monday showed issues across the continent may just be starting.
Some, like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are operating business as usual amid the virus’ spread. But the real crisis in Europe isn’t ending soon, as already weakened eurozone economies sink further. In the strongest sign of trouble in Europe, Italy is taking the unprecedented step of locking down the entire country for the next month.
Even as some Italian officials warned that their health system was on the verge of collapse and citizens debated Rome’s legal authority to effectively seal off an entire country, von der Leyen expressed satisfaction with the EU’s emergency response after what she acknowledged was a rough start.
Q™
IPCT Contributor
Anyone bought stocks yesterday? Today will bound 1000 points!
I'm waiting to see how the rest of the week shakes out Andy.
In all seriousness, how do you market players shuffle funds around to buy, buy, buy in a case like this? If I have funds in a 401k, is there any easy way to get those and buy without getting penalties? Or are those funds basically off limits (meaning without penalty) until I am old enough to retire?